[This just my WAG. Other suggestions are very Welcome]
If I'm looking at the rotation next year I see:
Jonny Cueto/Mat Latos [Can't see any scenario (short of finding a deal for Homer) where they keep both]
2 of Alfredo Simon, Tony Cingrani, Aroldis Chapman, Farmhand, [Acquisition]
I don't see them being able to sign Cueto AND Latos (although I think they may be able to swing one of them & Leake). If I'm the Res brain trust, I get aggressive ASAP after the final out of the season and try to at least lay some serious groundwork for signing either Mat or Jonny & if successful I work toward dealing the others. I also try to sign Leake, but I am willing to hold onto him until the trade deadline to fill a spot and buy time for the young'uns.
As for the last two spots? I call Aroldis into the office at the end of the season for a "Come to Jesus Meeting."
I tell him that we have allowed him his choice of closing because his salary as a closer made financial sense.
I inform him that now though, his next arbitration award will probably put him at the high end of what we plan on paying a closer going forward. If he asks why, I tell him that we are going to divert money to insuring top talent in the rotation and lineup, while going younger/cheaper in the pen and on the bench.
I tell them if he really is set on closing and the money doesn't really matter, then call is reps and we'll pound out a deal for about $7-8M for about six years and get him security.
If he wants to maximize his earnings though, it will need to be as a starter. I stress to him that the Reds all believe that he can be a top-end starter and by making the switch he can be a huge help to his team.
If he agrees to move to the rotation, life gets a lot easier. If he wants to sign a bargain contract (very doubtful), closer is set for several years, but the rotation is more problematic. If he is adamant about closing, but wants top-dollar he goes directly on the trading block and both a controllable young talented starter and one or two high-leverage young bullpen arms become essential acquisitions.
If he moves to the rotation you have Cueto/Latos, Bailey, Chapman, Leake and (TBD). If he refuses, you double your TBD's
I would prefer, to use Simon and Cingrani as my L&R-handed setup men, with Broxton closing for a year (I'm less optimistic than most about other clubs wanting to deal for him). The wildcard in this scenario is Sean Marshall. He's due $6.5M, but its probably a moot point since this final season is guaranteed without an option or a buyout. If healthy, I see them going north with both he and Broxton, but that's $16.5 million on two bullpen spots ($20M for three spots, if you include the $3.5m guaranteed to Parra).
I'd also like to see them add at least one starter, one RH reliever and one LH reliever either via bargain FA signings or ST N/R invites to add competition or depth.
S5 One of: Cingrani, Simon, Iglesias, Stephenson, Lorenzen, Lively,
LR One of: Contreras, LeCure, Hoover, Ondrusek, Partch, [Acquisition], Rookie
MR Parra (Loogy)
Best Case Scenario* (IMO):
S1 Jonny Cueto (R) [Latos dealt]
S2 Homer Bailey (R)
S3 Aroldis Chapman (L)
S4 Mike Leake (R)
S5 Rasiel Iglesias (R) [Interchangeable with Simon]
LR Sam Lecure (R)
MR Manny Parra (L) [Loogy]
7R Pedro Diaz (R)
7L Tony Cingrani (L)
8R Alfredo Simon (R)
8L Sean Marshall (L)
CL Jonathan Broxton (R)
* I have Cueto here because it is a BCS. I think they sign Latos instead though.