2015 Staff

[corkedbat]

[This just my WAG. Other suggestions are very Welcome]

If I'm looking at the rotation next year I see:

Jonny Cueto/Mat Latos [Can't see any scenario (short of finding a deal for Homer) where they keep both]
Homer Bailey
Mike Leake
2 of Alfredo Simon, Tony Cingrani, Aroldis Chapman, Farmhand, [Acquisition]

I don't see them being able to sign Cueto AND Latos (although I think they may be able to swing one of them & Leake). If I'm the Res brain trust, I get aggressive ASAP after the final out of the season and try to at least lay some serious groundwork for signing either Mat or Jonny & if successful I work toward dealing the others. I also try to sign Leake, but I am willing to hold onto him until the trade deadline to fill a spot and buy time for the young'uns.

As for the last two spots? I call Aroldis into the office at the end of the season for a "Come to Jesus Meeting."

I tell him that we have allowed him his choice of closing because his salary as a closer made financial sense.

I inform him that now though, his next arbitration award will probably put him at the high end of what we plan on paying a closer going forward. If he asks why, I tell him that we are going to divert money to insuring top talent in the rotation and lineup, while going younger/cheaper in the pen and on the bench.

I tell them if he really is set on closing and the money doesn't really matter, then call is reps and we'll pound out a deal for about $7-8M for about six years and get him security.

If he wants to maximize his earnings though, it will need to be as a starter. I stress to him that the Reds all believe that he can be a top-end starter and by making the switch he can be a huge help to his team.

If he agrees to move to the rotation, life gets a lot easier. If he wants to sign a bargain contract (very doubtful), closer is set for several years, but the rotation is more problematic. If he is adamant about closing, but wants top-dollar he goes directly on the trading block and both a controllable young talented starter and one or two high-leverage young bullpen arms become essential acquisitions.

If he moves to the rotation you have Cueto/Latos, Bailey, Chapman, Leake and (TBD). If he refuses, you double your TBD's

I would prefer, to use Simon and Cingrani as my L&R-handed setup men, with Broxton closing for a year (I'm less optimistic than most about other clubs wanting to deal for him). The wildcard in this scenario is Sean Marshall. He's due $6.5M, but its probably a moot point since this final season is guaranteed without an option or a buyout. If healthy, I see them going north with both he and Broxton, but that's $16.5 million on two bullpen spots ($20M for three spots, if you include the $3.5m guaranteed to Parra).

I'd also like to see them add at least one starter, one RH reliever and one LH reliever either via bargain FA signings or ST N/R invites to add competition or depth.

S1 Cueto/Latos
S2 Bailey
S3 Chapman
S4 Leake
S5 One of: Cingrani, Simon, Iglesias, Stephenson, Lorenzen, Lively,
LR One of: Contreras, LeCure, Hoover, Ondrusek, Partch, [Acquisition], Rookie
MR Parra (Loogy)
7R Diaz
7L Cingrani/Holmberg
8R Iglesias/Simon
8L Marshall
CL Broxton

Best Case Scenario* (IMO):

S1 Jonny Cueto (R) [Latos dealt]
S2 Homer Bailey (R)
S3 Aroldis Chapman (L)
S4 Mike Leake (R)
S5 Rasiel Iglesias (R) [Interchangeable with Simon]
LR Sam Lecure (R)
MR Manny Parra (L) [Loogy]
7R Pedro Diaz (R)
7L Tony Cingrani (L)
8R Alfredo Simon (R)
8L Sean Marshall (L)
CL Jonathan Broxton (R)

* I have Cueto here because it is a BCS. I think they sign Latos instead though.

[RedTeamGo!]

Chapman starting pitching boat has sailed.

Never.Going.To.Happen.

[swaisuc]

I don't hate that suggestion for what should happen, but I don't think it will and I'm not sure it should. For better or worse, status quo is always the most likely option for this organization. In this case, status quo also happens to be the path that probably helps us the most in 2015. It should be obvious to us by now that they're trying to win year to year and still haven't done so. I find it extremely unlikely that they would change gears now to prepare for long-term. There will be no Cueto/Latos trade even without extensions IMO.

Cueto
Latos
Bailey
Leake
Simon or Cingrani

[RedEye]

Chapman starting pitching boat has sailed.

Never.Going.To.Happen.

Price hinted at the possibility earlier this season. With Chapman's expanded repertoire, starting makes more and more sense. Remember that Price is not Dusty. I think it could still happen.

[RedTeamGo!]

Price hinted at the possibility earlier this season. With Chapman's expanded repertoire, starting makes more and more sense. Remember that Price is not Dusty. I think it could still happen.

Let's use this opportunity to list pitchers that have closed for the first 5 years of their career that went on to become full time starters:




End of list.

[dubc47834]

Let's use this opportunity to list pitchers that have closed for the first 5 years of their career that went on to become full time starters:




End of list.

A list has to start somewhere!!!

Not saying this should be it, I think Chapman wants to stay a closer, but if they are going to do it this would be the offseason to do it. With the new pitches and everything I'm more inclined now than ever to think it could work. Im still on the boat that believes we shouold leave him as closer.

[klw]

Let's use this opportunity to list pitchers that have closed for the first 5 years of their career that went on to become full time starters:
End of list.

Danny Graves 2003. Not saying it went well but it happened for a year.

Derek Lowe comes close but he was a starter before his 3 years closing.

[klw]

Holy cow was that 2003 Reds staff awful!!!!! They had 17 guys start a game that year and only 1 had an ERA+ over 101 (Jose Acevedo- 4 starts, Reith made 1 start and had a 101) and the team ERA+ was 81. EWWW.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CIN/2003.shtml

[redsrule2500]

Holy cow was that 2003 Reds staff awful!!!!! They had 17 guys start a game that year and only 1 had an ERA+ over 101 (Jose Acevedo- 4 starts, Reith made 1 start and had a 101) and the team ERA+ was 81. EWWW.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CIN/2003.shtml

Look at those offensive numbers, though. Equally amazing.

Edit: I am forgetting this is 2003. Those are probably league average.

[klw]

Look at those offensive numbers, though. Equally amazing.

Edit: I am forgetting this is 2003. Those are probably league average.

Team OPS+ of 89. Below average. A few good seasons in there but a number of part timers getting many at bats. Over 300 AB's for Castro though his numbers don't look as bad in comparison to today.

Only 3 NL teams scored fewer runs that year and only Colorado gave up more (and only 6 more at that)
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/2003.shtml

[reds44]

Let's use this opportunity to list pitchers that have closed for the first 5 years of their career that went on to become full time starters:




End of list.

Most of the time closers/relievers are failed starters though. Not the case with Chapman.

[redsrule2500]

Team OPS+ of 89. Below average. A few good seasons in there but a number of part timers getting many at bats. Over 300 AB's for Castro though his numbers don't look as bad in comparison to today.

Only 3 NL teams scored fewer runs that year and only Colorado gave up more (and only 6 more at that)
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/2003.shtml

Wow. Thanks for the analysis, they were just BAD. That's incredible.

Also amazing how much times have changed in the past 10 years as a below league average offense now looks like a top 3 NL offense.

[kpresidente]

Let's use this opportunity to list pitchers that have closed for the first 5 years of their career that went on to become full time starters:

End of list.

There's reasons for this that don't apply to the Reds, though:

1. Closers used to be overvalued. Not so much anymore.
2. Most teams have dreck at the bottom of the rotation, which hasn't been the case for the Reds.
3. Most closers don't resist the move to the rotation the way Chapman has.
4. Related to #4...Most closers don't have a manager and GM who want them to start but don't do so because of the player's objection.
5. Most closers don't develop a devastating change-up in their 5th season.
6. Most closers aren't as dominant as Chapman. Often they close because they can't start. Stamina or whatever.

I'm not saying he will start next year. He probably won't. But he should.

[BungleBengals]

I think it would be great for Chapman to start, but I cannot see it happening.

The reports of Chapman being lazy and then him not wanting to start, indicates to me that he will never go for it. The choice between having to develop another pitch and being on the mound every 5th day and pitching 6+ innings vs pitching only on days that our anemic and inconsistent offense puts us in a position for a closer to shut the door for 1 inning?

Easy choice for Chapman.

[Trajinous]

It would hurt but I would trade Cueto for a proven hitter and a prospect. I rather keep Latos since he's sooooo young and feel like he can improve to top 10 talent.