2015 Staff

[Old school 1983]

The Reds are contenders next year when healthy. If they upgrade LF they are a legit playoff team.

The teams organizational strength is starting pitching but no one is quite ready yet and no one on the farm is pitching to 1 or 2 quality results despite having one or two quality stuff. (Lorenzen may be an exception) Given that, I wouldn't trade either Cueto or Latos. I'd go hard to resign one of them. Either one. And have both pitch for the Reds in 2015. The Reds have a legit chance to compete and these guys are legit top of the rotation arms. No ifs ands or buts about it. Bailey anchors the middle of the staff and will give the Reds solid results. The next two guys are the guys are the ones that I'd consider shifting roles or moving. I'd like to see Simon back in the pen. This years pen has two major groups, elite guys you trust, and, guys you have no idea what they'll give you. Simon would be a great in between those two groups. A guy that could come in either early or late in the game and pitch to good results. A guy that Price could use with confidence to fill in for a back of the pen arm while being able to use in other situations too. Perhaps Cingrani could be used in the same role if Simon stays in the rotation. If a pitcher has to be moved to free up money for or to acquire a LF IMO it should be Leake. A prospect would most likely be able to closely perform on the same level as Leake and Leake could bring a decent return.

At the end of the day the 2015 Reds need both Latos and Cueto at the top of the rotation. Sign either one long term. Ride the other in 2015 and give him a qualifying offer. By the end of 2015, one of the more elite prospects could be ready to step in and take his place the next season while a lower level prospect who is closer to the bigs, maybe Iglesias or Cingrani (already has MLB time) could establish or re-establish theirselves as a MLB pitcher in Leake or Simons spot from this year.

[Chuckie]

If you want to trade a pitcher, trade the walk-happy Robert Stephenson while his value is still high. If we could get a good LF for him (one that would be more than a one-year rental) I would do it in a heartbeat. He can throw hard but has no command. Plus, we have a ton of pitching depth in the minors. None of them will be ready in 2015, but beginning in 2016 we should see an influx of talented pitchers coming to the Reds from the minor league system.

[RedTeamGo!]

If you want to trade a pitcher, trade the walk-happy Robert Stephenson while his value is still high. If we could get a good LF for him (one that would be more than a one-year rental) I would do it in a heartbeat. He can throw hard but has no command. Plus, we have a ton of pitching depth in the minors. None of them will be ready in 2015, but beginning in 2016 we should see an influx of talented pitchers coming to the Reds from the minor league system.

How is stephensons value high? If random fans have noticed his deficiencies you can be sure the rest of baseball has.

[757690]

How is stephensons value high? If random fans have noticed his deficiencies you can be sure the rest of baseball has.

History is lined with eventual stars who struggled their first year in AA. It's way to early to describe Stephenson's struggles as "deficiencies." I'm guessing most GM's and scouts understand this.

[corkedbat]

If you want to trade a pitcher, trade the walk-happy Robert Stephenson while his value is still high. If we could get a good LF for him (one that would be more than a one-year rental) I would do it in a heartbeat. He can throw hard but has no command. Plus, we have a ton of pitching depth in the minors. None of them will be ready in 2015, but beginning in 2016 we should see an influx of talented pitchers coming to the Reds from the minor league system.

Brilliant Sell low on the top prospect in your system because he's having control issues (no one has ever come back from that), just when you're on the verge of potentially losing 60% of your ML rotation. Even if he still has the same control issues a year from now, give him a shot in the bullpen. You don't give away an arm of that quality with all of those controllable years.

[Old school 1983]

You continue to develop arms like Stephenson to replace guys like Cueto or Latos or whoever leaves. One year could make a huge difference in his development. Calling him a flop and cutting bait on him is premature. He has top of the rotation potential. Don't trade guys like that unless you're getting a stud back.

[WVRedsFan]

We could start by having someone other than our worst reliever (Hoover) lead the bullpen in innings pitched.

This

[schroomytunes]

For me I would like to see:

Additions:

LF-Mike Morse- RH can hit for power, .280 average, and can play 1b.

Bench- 1) OF- Bonafacio- can play 2b/cf, .260 average, tremendous speed
2) OF- Jonny Gomes- smashes LHP, good power bat off bench, fiery clubhouse leader,

Subtractions:
1) Hannahan
2) Heisey
3) Ludwick
4) Hoover
5) Ondrusek

25 man roster:

SP- Cueto, Latos, Bailey, Leake, Simon
BP- Chapman, Broxton, Jumbo, Parra, Lecure, Cingrani, Marshall/Contreras

Starters- Votto, BP, Cozart, Frazier, Mes, Bruce, Hamilton, Morse
Bench- Pena, Shumacher, Santiago, Bonafacio, Gomes

[Chuckie]

Brilliant Sell low on the top prospect in your system because he's having control issues (no one has ever come back from that), just when you're on the verge of potentially losing 60% of your ML rotation. Even if he still has the same control issues a year from now, give him a shot in the bullpen. You don't give away an arm of that quality with all of those controllable years.

"Give away"? Please.

Sir, I was suggesting that if the Reds could find a good LF on a multi-year contract in exchange for Stephenson, I would do the deal. That's a far cry from giving him away. But nice hyperbole.

[corkedbat]

"Give away"? Please.

Sir, I was suggesting that if the Reds could find a good LF on a multi-year contract in exchange for Stephenson, I would do the deal. That's a far cry from giving him away. But nice hyperbole.

Give away was not used as hyperbole. It referred to the fact that you would be selling so low, the return you would receive would be no where near what you would have received at the beginning of the year when control issues were not a problem. If you so vehemently believe "that he is walk-happy" & "can throw hard, but has no control," (and are correct0 what makes you think that another big league team is going to deal you a "good LF (one that would be more than a one-year rental)" for him?

If somebody does offer you what you want, I'm gonna guess that they believe he has a very good chance to be elite and I will value their opinion over yours. In that case, the Reds have no business dealing him so hastily when there are 3/5's of their rotation about to be lost and he is still under several years of cheap club control.

[Chuckie]

Give away was not used as hyperbole. It referred to the fact that you would be selling so low, the return you would receive would be no where near what you would have received at the beginning of the year when control issues were not a problem. If you so vehemently believe "that he is walk-happy" & "can throw hard, but has no control," (and are correct0 what makes you think that another big league team is going to deal you a "good LF (one that would be more than a one-year rental)" for him?

If somebody does offer you what you want, I'm gonna guess that they believe he has a very good chance to be elite and I will value their opinion over yours. In that case, the Reds have no business dealing him so hastily when there are 3/5's of their rotation about to be lost and he is still under several years of cheap club control.

I agree trading Stephenson wouldn't be ideal, but two things to consider:

1. To trade for a good LF that isn't just a one-year rental for 2015, the Reds would have to give up something very good. Even though Stephenson has control problems, he still has very high value on the trade market, IMO. How else are the Reds going to address their glaring hole in LF this offseason if they don't trade away a top prospect? Have you seen the list of potential free agent outfielders this offseason? It's not pretty. A trade might be the Reds' only option if they want to add a LF, which is very-much needed.

2. The Reds have a surplus of quality minor league pitching. While Stephenson is the top pitching prospect and would enable the Reds to get the most in return, there are several pitchers in the organization who are not far behind him in terms of being a top pitching prospect. I'm referring to guys like Lorenzen, Moscot, Lively ... and even some of the guys in the lower minors like Garrett, Travieso, Romano and Langfield. (And Howard, although he might end up being a closer.) So, it's not like if the Reds trade Stephenson in order to fill their gaping hole in LF that there would be a lack of quality pitching prospects in this organization.

I mean, I would love it if we could trade Yorman Rodriguez straight-up for a good Major League left fielder, but the truth of the matter is the Reds would have to give up something of high value and I think the organization could withstand the loss of Stephenson if it meant an extreme upgrade in LF.

[Chuckie]

You continue to develop arms like Stephenson to replace guys like Cueto or Latos or whoever leaves. One year could make a huge difference in his development. Calling him a flop and cutting bait on him is premature. He has top of the rotation potential. Don't trade guys like that unless you're getting a stud back.

That's the point though -- Stephenson is the one that could bring the Reds a stud LF. I agree you don't trade him unless you're getting a stud back. My point is that Stephenson -- even with his control problems -- is the Reds' top prospect and would give the Reds the best return on a trade. I just don't see how the team is going to fill the black hole that is the starting LF job without trading away a top prospect. And we're not getting a stud LF for Jon Moscot. It just won't happen. But we could get a stud LF for Stephenson.

[Old school 1983]

That's the point though -- Stephenson is the one that could bring the Reds a stud LF. I agree you don't trade him unless you're getting a stud back. My point is that Stephenson -- even with his control problems -- is the Reds' top prospect and would give the Reds the best return on a trade. I just don't see how the team is going to fill the black hole that is the starting LF job without trading away a top prospect. And we're not getting a stud LF for Jon Moscot. It just won't happen. But we could get a stud LF for Stephenson.

If we are talking Stanton level stud then ok we agree. But to get a guy for a few years who is a solid major leaguer, I'd much rather have Stephenson in the system. The Reds don't need a huge game changer in left at this point, with the emergence of Mesoraco and re-emergence of Frazier (idk if I still trust his results yet bit they are what they are), the Reds need to address their one weakness in the lineup and that's obp ability outside of Votto.

Speed-Hamilton
Righty power-Mes; Frazier
Lefty power-Bruce (in a normal year)
Solid clutch type veteran bat-Phillips
OBP-Votto

Outside of Votto and Mez this year, the Reds don't have anyone above .350 in obp. The Free agent market contains Headley, Markakis and Willingham. All of which have a lifetime obp of around .350 or above and I really don't think any of which would break the bank on terms of money and years (remember Winker is around the corner). So if you're getting Puig Harper or Stanton or something like that, then sure I'd probably include Stephenson. But if you're just getting a starter caliber guy for a few years, then no I wouldn't. You could get that via free agency without having to give up potential talent like Stephenson.

[Z-Fly]

I don't think it would be logical to sign any of the starters to any kind of high dollar/long term contract.

*Pitching is a surplus in the MLB.
*Pitching is a surplus in the Red's Minor league system.
*Pitching is very unnatural and is a position where many injuries pop up.

Why in the world would the Reds sign any of the pitchers? Let them walk for the draft pick or trade them off.

[TRF]

Simon is not going to start a game for the Reds next year. I truly believe that will not happen. I also don't believe he will throw a pitch for the Reds either. I'm betting he's dealt in the off season for a very modest return. I see Minnesota in his future for some reason. ( according to Diners, Drive-ins and Dives, there is some really good Dominican restaurant there...)

I believe the rotation on Opening day is:

Cueto
Bailey
Latos
Leake
Cingrani

Period. IF the Reds and Chapman buy into the idea of him as a starter.. then Cingrani is likely sacrificed to the pen or one of Cingrani, Leake or Latos might be dealt.

But if... IF Chapman to the rotation does become reality, I doubt he pitches more than 120 innings in 2015. But lets say he is in the rotation and assuming no starter is dealt, the pen is now...

Broxton - Closer
Jumbo
LeCure
Cingrani
Hoover
Ondrusek
Partch/Contreras/FA/Other

Look at what the Angels did this year. Their pen looks pretty good right now. But did you know 26 men have thrown a pitch in relief for the Angels this year? That's a lot of trial and error to find 6-7 guys. Trades, promotions, FA's. But that pen as it stands right now, is pretty good. The Reds going into this season had three guys with decent track records. Chapman, Broxton and LeCure. Then they lost Chapman for two months. In my mind the Reds needed to push some of those guys at AAA a bit more, AA too. Just to see if there might have been someone to stick. Corcino doesn't look like a starter anymore. Maybe the pen is his future. I don't know who Fabio Castillo is, but he's pitched ok since the Reds acquired him. call him up in September.

They don't have to extend Latos yet. I believe they will extend Cueto. If the Reds do convert Chapman, then Latos is likely the odd man out unless Leake finishes this year with a K/9 north of 7. Then he might be appealing based on health. Having Chapman and Cingrani in the rotation is dicey health wise, and intriguing from a strikeout standpoint. It warrants some serious depth at AAA.

But in the end, I think that ship sailed. I also think the Reds want to keep him closing next year for the ASG. That may be a dumb reason not to do it, but i bet it is a reason they won't.