2014: The Season of Bleeding Eyes

[bubbachunk]

The Reds' reliance on the current personnel, emphasizing continuity and not making changes is the 800 pound gorilla in the room, so it does come up often, not only from me, but from many posters. There are several threads folks have started on the subject.

The interesting thing, in retrospect, is that ownership and Walt seem to have concluded last year that the personnel was sufficient and that Dusty had simply lost the team.

So they hired a new managerial/coaching staff as their major off-season move. And on a W-L basis, with injury, the record is not that good.

At this point they have not shown signs of shaking up the personnel, or firing the manager, or making any serious change. But it's still mid-season. It will be interesting to see ownership's take after the season.

You want ownership to come out and say their employees stink? Is that how you expect to get results?

If they were looking to make a change, which I assume they were, they would not come out and publicly state that. That does nothing but hurt your current team.

[villain612]

I'm not predicting anything and it sure hasn't been fun watching this team since the all star break but even after all that, they're out 5.5 out in the division and 3.5 in the wild card with 42 games to go.

Never say die.

[WVRedsFan]

I'm always mystified at fans. Whether you like someone always plays into opinions. It's human nature. Ryan Ludwick is just a hair away from being our best offensive outfielder. But he's old, strikes out, and just is part of the deep hole in LF. I heard it here. Billy Hamilton has a better average (dropping as I speak), had a worse OBP than Ludwick, and is golden. Jay Bruce has a lower average, OBP, and isn't hitting (duh), but he is drowned by love. It's pretty obvious that fans love Hamilton and Bruce and Hamilton is draped in love. Why? Because fans love them. They love Heisey as incompetent as he is. They want to trade Broxton because he is paid too much even if he is effective 99% of the time. They love Price even with his insane lineups and player moves because he has had injuries. I really do not understand.

[Edskin]

I'm always mystified at fans. Whether you like someone always plays into opinions. It's human nature. Ryan Ludwick is just a hair away from being our best offensive outfielder. But he's old, strikes out, and just is part of the deep hole in LF. I heard it here. Billy Hamilton has a better average (dropping as I speak), had a worse OBP than Ludwick, and is golden. Jay Bruce has a lower average, OBP, and isn't hitting (duh), but he is drowned by love. It's pretty obvious that fans love Hamilton and Bruce and Hamilton is draped in love. Why? Because fans love them. They love Heisey as incompetent as he is. They want to trade Broxton because he is paid too much even if he is effective 99% of the time. They love Price even with his insane lineups and player moves because he has had injuries. I really do not understand.

No doubt, personal preference plays a role. But so does expectation.

Hamilton is "golden" around here for two reasons:

1. He's a rookie
2. He's fun and different

He also represents a HUGE drop off from our CF last year, but people overlook it because they feel (rightly so) like BH is the future and was ready to be in the bigs. If this is the worst he is for the next 5-7 years, we will be in good shape in center.

People don't like Ludwick because he is old and rapidly declining. And his "now" isn't so hot either.

Bruce is my personal most frustrating Red of all time. He baffles me. He is having a horrible, horrible year. He's the one guy that escapes scorn more than he should IMO.

I'm ok with Price. His lineups stink because the players in them stink. There is just too much dead weight on the roster for him to avoid it daily. Someone has to bat 5th-9th everyday.

[TRF]

bruce is my personal most frustrating red of all time. He baffles me. He is having a horrible, horrible year. He's the one guy that escapes scorn more than he should imo.

year	gp	ab	r	h	2b	3b	hr	rbi	bb	so	sb	cs	avg	obp	slg	ops	war
2008	108	413	63	105	17	1	21	52	33	110	4	6	.254	.314	.453	.767	0.6
2009	101	345	47	77	15	2	22	58	38	75	3	3	.223	.303	.470	.773	1.1
2010	148	509	80	143	23	5	25	70	58	136	5	4	.281	.353	.493	.846	4.5
2011	157	585	84	150	27	2	32	97	71	158	8	7	.256	.341	.474	.815	1.8
2012	155	560	89	141	35	5	34	99	62	155	9	3	.252	.327	.514	.841	1.4
2013	160	626	89	164	43	1	30	109	63	185	7	3	.262	.329	.478	.807	5.1
2014	98	357	57	80	19	1	12	46	41	108	11	2	.224	.305	.384	.689	-0.1

Bruce is an .800-.850 OPS bat. He's got consistent power numbers. He may have reached his peak, an .850ish bat with 30-35 HR's. I'll take 6-7 more years of that. He's hurt. He's dealt with a death in the family. He doesn't blame his performance on an injury, but it is easy to see from my eyes that he just isn't right. He may end up with his first sub 20 HR season this year, but going forward? I have no worries. Bruce is a stud. He just needs an off season to get himself healthy and right in the head. Put all of 2014 behind him.

[tomnuetten]

No doubt, personal preference plays a role. But so does expectation.

Hamilton is "golden" around here for two reasons:

1. He's a rookie
2. He's fun and different

He also represents a HUGE drop off from our CF last year, but people overlook it because they feel (rightly so) like BH is the future and was ready to be in the bigs. If this is the worst he is for the next 5-7 years, we will be in good shape in center.

People don't like Ludwick because he is old and rapidly declining. And his "now" isn't so hot either.

Bruce is my personal most frustrating Red of all time. He baffles me. He is having a horrible, horrible year. He's the one guy that escapes scorn more than he should IMO.

I'm ok with Price. His lineups stink because the players in them stink. There is just too much dead weight on the roster for him to avoid it daily. Someone has to bat 5th-9th everyday.

I don´t like bunting and I think the running game is overrated and doesn´t help (the way the reds do it, it hurts them) => perhaps that´s the reason that I think watching hamilton is not that much more fun than other players... in fact I think it would be more fun to see someone getting on base more often. I don´t think all those bunt attempts are fun.. but I can understand the people who think he is really fun to watch

his stolen bases etc. are entertaining, yet he is only succesful in 70% of his attempts (that is not good enough). I love his range on defence and his arm is not that bad (inconsistent but not bad)

I can understand that people are excited and I´m looking forward to see him improve. It is his rookie season and I think he did better than I expected (except the baserunning). Yet he is not on the level some people think or want to believe... If he can´t improve going forward (I think he will, at least baserunning wise) he is not a great leadoff hitter and another elite glove "no hit" guy

[Trajinous]

. I don´t think all those bunt attempts are fun.. but I can understand the people who think he is really fun to watch his stolen bases etc. are entertaining, yet he is only succesful in 70% of his attempts (that is not good enough). I love his range on defence and his arm is not that bad (inconsistent but not bad)

I can understand that people are excited and I´m looking forward to see him improve. It is his rookie season and I think he did better than I expected (except the baserunning). Yet he is not on the level some people think or want to believe... If he can´t improve going forward (I think he will, at least baserunning wise) he is not a great leadoff hitter and another elite glove "no hit" guy

I think you're just being a little harsh on Hamilton. He is hitting .260 which isn't great but puts him at 13th for rookies. For a kid that many thought would barely hit .230, it's pretty good. Hamilton is also having a much better season than Choo, which no one would have guessed. I agree his caught stealing rate is too high but he's still stealing more bases than the Reds have seen in a decade. For me, Hamilton falls in the "not the problem" category.

[Patrick Bateman]

Funny what injuries and being on the wrong side of the Pythag flip can do to perceptions.

Quality contending team if they were healthy.

Generally the injury sentiment scares me. If that doesn't get corrected will be hard to contend long term.

[Kc61]

You want ownership to come out and say their employees stink? Is that how you expect to get results?

If they were looking to make a change, which I assume they were, they would not come out and publicly state that. That does nothing but hurt your current team.

Well, I didn't expect the Reds to hold a press conference in the middle of GABP, with national coverage, announcing that they hate their players and who exactly they are looking to dump. But with the media glare of today, usually you have an idea when a team is in the market. Not always, especially with the very secretive Reds.

[tomnuetten]

I think you're just being a little harsh on Hamilton. He is hitting .260 which isn't great but puts him at 13th for rookies. For a kid that many thought would barely hit .230, it's pretty good. Hamilton is also having a much better season than Choo, which no one would have guessed. I agree his caught stealing rate is too high but he's still stealing more bases than the Reds have seen in a decade. For me, Hamilton falls in the "not the problem" category.

he is a part of the problems on offence this season. he has a poor OBP (while hitting leadoff) and is not a big slugger either. of course he has upside and most guys did expect less from him in his rookie season, but his stats are below avg. though (only offence)

choo has/had injury problems all season long, hard to expect those things...billy is stealing more bases than the reds have seen in a decade, but as long as his ratio is that "bad" it doesn´t help the reds..

[mth123]

My thoughts.

1, Lack of execution seems to be a problem on the bases. To remedy this, I'd take the 3rd base coach and publicly execute him.
2. Buy-out Ludwick and Hannahan
3. Deal a starter for two kids on the brink. One of whom is a 2B with a bat as well (Odor, Alcantara, etc.).
4. Use the money from said starter to buy a competent complimentary bat for LF. Colby Rasmus is still my choice since he would be insurance in case of injury or a quick fall from grace from Hamilton.
5. Deal Phillips for a couple decent prospects at spots where the organization needs them.
6. Use Phillips money to strengthen the bottom of the roster. A lefty reliever, a solid RH 4th OF (maybe still Heisey, but I'd look for better), a bat first bench player in the Matt Stairs, Eric Hinske mold and a 6th starter/rotation insurance.
7. Deal Lecure, Hoover, Ondrusek for whatever you can get. If you can keep any in AAA as insurance, keep them. If you can't deal them, non-tender. Minimum salary or gone.


Hamilton CF
Votto 1B
Frazier 3B
Mesoraco C
Bruce RF
Rasmus LF
New 2B
Cozart SS

Pena C
RH Hitting 4th OF (maybe Heisey)
New lefty power PH guy
Negron or MI of the day
Skippy as insurance for kid at 2B.

Cueto
Latos or Leake
Bailey
Simon (quick hook here as kids get ready at some point)
Cingrani (same)

New 6th starter guy
Parra
Contreras
Diaz
New Lefty
Broxton
Chapman

[Kc61]

mth, thoughtful as usual, but the single most important off-season move must be to add a potent bat to the outfield. Rasmus is a .722 OPS this season. His OBP is .285.

He's had good years previously, not sure what to expect next season.

But the Reds must look offense first in the outfield. CF ability is fine. LF defense is fine. But they are all trumped by offense with any new outfielder IMO.

[TRF]

he is a part of the problems on offence this season. he has a poor OBP (while hitting leadoff) and is not a big slugger either. of course he has upside and most guys did expect less from him in his rookie season, but his stats are below avg. though (only offence)

choo has/had injury problems all season long, hard to expect those things...billy is stealing more bases than the reds have seen in a decade, but as long as his ratio is that "bad" it doesn´t help the reds..

I put forth that it is actually not hurting a Reds team decimated by injuries. We are so used to thinking only in the context of the current season we sometimes miss the big picture.

Hamilton has been caught a lot. He's also learning a lot. He's a 23 year old rookie that CARRIED the team for a little over a month. The mistakes he's making now are teaching tools. He and the Reds coaching staff will be able to go over it in the off season and spring training and correct a lot of his mistakes. Not too many on here expected him to hit .260. No one saw the power he's flashed. I have to admit, I expected additional growing pains in CF where he's been fantastic.

A lot of good can come from this season. Playoffs? no, but still a lot of good. Now can Hamilton take what has been handed him and adjust? I believe he can. Depending on what happens this off season, the Reds will still have a dominant rotation, an improved bullpen and health at 1B, 2B, RF and a full year from their breakout catcher (who in all likelihood will win the Silver Slugger award this year.)

[JMO]

Chris Carter. 1B/LF power bat. Won't hit for high average, but in GABP his power would be huge. He would add length and added power to our lineup. One year stop gap until Winker arrives. He could provide Votto insurance as well. 2015 lineup would be:

Hamilton, Frazier, Votto, Mesoraco, Bruce, Carter, Phillips, Cozart

[klw]

Wrong thread

Edit: But seeing I have this post just sitting here let me just say 4 pages of bleeding eyes and no pics of Le Chiffre???