Braves-Cardinals Trade

[757690]

Heyward had a .351 obp last season, good enough for 38th best in MLB. He is not just a "defensive OF." He does play elite defense, though.

They will likely extend him, and Miller had a pretty crappy 2014.

2014 WAR (disclaimer: I understand WAR is not everything):

Braves Get:
Shelby Miller: 0.2
Jenkins: NA (had a decent year as a 21 year old at A+)

Cardinals Get:
Jason Heyward: 5.1
Jordan Walden: 0.7

I consider that a fleecing by the Cardinals, honestly.

It ain't a fleecing when you look at the years of control.

Hayward has a nice bat, but he's definitely a defense first guy. That's his strength. That's not a bad thing in and if itself, just interesting, because the Cards need a big bat more than they need a good glove in the OF.

Btw, extending to him means nothing in terms of this trade. They could have signed him as a free agent after this season, so the deal still is one year of Heyward for four years if Miller and a top pitching prospect. The interesting question is if the Cards extends a QO to Hayward after this season.

Overall, it seems like a fair trade for both teams. Cards fill a big hole in RF for one year, and the Braves get two young arms for lots of years.

[cincrazy]

The Cards got better today. The Pirates got worse. And the gap in the NL Central between St. Louis and the rest of the division continues to widen.

[ac084c]

So who is out of a job, Jon Jay or Randal Grichuk?


I was never especially into the idea of acquiring Heyward.

Grichuk will most likely platoon with Heyward against LHP now.

Jay is coming off a career-year and Cardinals management has already said he's their CF next year.

I'd expect them to tell Stephen Piscotty to bring a 1B glove to camp so he can platoon with Adams.

[RedsManRick]

I like this for the Cardinals. Miller is their 5th starter, assuming he's healthy and the Cards have ready replacements. On top of that, I think we'll see a Heyward extension before the winter is out.

Yes, the Braves might get more surplus value over the course of the remainder of the their current contracts, but that depends largely on their ability to "fix" Shelby Miller. Meanwhile, Walden is the kind of arm that can add some real value in middle relief and setup while getting treated by the casual observer as a thrown in - career FIP of 2.80 in over 200 IP. He'd be the 2nd best reliever on the Reds. And on top of that, at some point the rubber hits the road and it's about overall production, regardless of value. The Cardinals got the best player in the trade.

[757690]

Basically looking at Cingrani and Lively for Hayward and Walden from a Reds perspective, and I'm not sure that gets it's done due to Cingrani's injury.

[ac084c]

It ain't a fleecing when you look at the years of control.

Hayward has a nice bat, but he's definitely a defense first guy. That's his strength. That's not a bad thing in and if itself, just interesting, because the Cards need a big bat more than they need a good glove in the OF.

Btw, extending to him means nothing in terms of this trade. They could have signed him as a free agent after this season, so the deal still is one year of Heyward for four years if Miller and a top pitching prospect. The interesting question is if the Cards extends a QO to Hayward after this season.

Overall, it seems like a fair trade for both teams. Cards fill a big hole in RF for one year, and the Braves get two young arms for lots of years.

He's a 5-win player, and 25. Why wouldn't they extend a QO to him?

[corkedbat]

Time for Walt to counter with a Nate Schierholtz signing (about 2yrs for $14 with a $10M option and a $5M buyout)

[Larkin88]

Btw, extending to him means nothing in terms of this trade. They could have signed him as a free agent after this season, so the deal still is one year of Heyward for four years if Miller and a top pitching prospect. The interesting question is if the Cards extends a QO to Hayward after this season.

Club control means plenty in terms of a trade. At least for a year, the Cards only need to compete with themselves in terms of negotiations. You can say he's a Boras client and he'll test free agency and you might be exactly right. But if he is extended it would be far from the first time a team has traded for a to-be free agent only to secure them under a more club-friendly structure.

All that said, I do see the value from the Braves perspective. They want to extend their window of contention rather than throw homegrown pieces at a 2015 season where they will not be the best team in their division. Actually has some interesting parallels to another team in the NL I can think of...

Heyward*

[Patrick Bateman]

A 1 year play for a great player. Team control for a better player.

Classic swap. Makes more sense for the Cards to do with where they are at, then it does for the Reds.

I'd love to have Heyward though.

[mdccclxix]

What looks better (since we're comparing Walt to STL's FO):

Didi for Choo

or

Miller for Heyward

[ac084c]

Club control means plenty in terms of a trade. At least for a year, the Cards only need to compete with themselves in terms of negotiations. You can say he's a Boras client and he'll test free agency and you might be exactly right. But if he is extended it would be far from the first time a team has traded for a to-be free agent only to secure them under a more club-friendly structure.

All that said, I do see the value from the Braves perspective. They want to extend their window of contention rather than throw homegrown pieces at a 2015 season where they will not be the best team in their division. Actually has some interesting parallels to another team in the NL I can think of...

Heyward*

Exactly. Cardinals did the same thing with Matt Holliday - also a Boras client.

[Roy Tucker]

This is the kind of trade I hope the Reds make.

I'm still waiting.

[RedEye]

Hayward has a nice bat, but he's definitely a defense first guy. That's his strength. That's not a bad thing in and if itself, just interesting, because the Cards need a big bat more than they need a good glove in the OF.

There is still a lot of upside in that bat, IMO. Worst case scenario, the Cards are getting a 5 WAR OF in this deal. And he could be much, much more than that if his power returns.

[757690]

He's a 5-win player, and 25. Why wouldn't they extend a QO to him?

Because most of his value comes from defense, and he's on the decline offensively. If he rebounds offensively, sure. But are teams willing to give big, long term contracts to GG RF with a .737 OPS? I don't know, which is why it will be interesting.

[ac084c]

There is still a lot of upside in that bat, IMO. Worst case scenario, the Cards are getting a 5 WAR OF in this deal. And he could be much, much more than that if his power returns.

John Mabry will make sure that last statement doesn't happen.