How The Reds Quietly Won At The Winter Meetings

[corkedbat]

1. Good article , and I agree that the moves were effective if somewhat un-spectacular.
2. In response to a couple of posts, the Reds missed about 11-12 Wins last year based purely on lack of production from Votto and Bruce. So you could say the reds' problems were mainly due to Votto, Bruce and the bullpen.
3. I am a big believer in developing young in-house talent, as opposed to signing free agents. When it works you get a player who is both good and cheap. Whereas a veteran can be good or bad, but they always cost you. I would rather see a team rush young players than overpay middle aged average players.

Yeah, I would strongly advise all general managers to develop their own in-house talent and have someone ready to step up at every spot. Quite unfortunately though, that plan tends to get all buggered up at one sot or another. At times like that, teams have to turned to FA, trades or do the hell without. Teams like the Yankees. Red Sox, angels, etc. just reach in their pockets and pull out an endless stream of cash or just grab a couple of guys off the bench, from the pen or down on the farm and they trade them off for what they need or even deal them to someone for guys to deal for someone.

When you get down to teams like the Reds with pretty limited resources, you have to look ahead, decide a year or two in advance who you're going forward with and extending, who you're not and trade away the surplus for something else you need. You constantly churn your roster trying to anticipate and avoid dog-snarls (like having 80% of your rotation leaving via free agency). Major inefficiencies like that, tying up your resources on unnecessarily on the bench, in the pen, etc. otherwise you may have to do without

[Todd Gack]

The Giants haven't been good on paper but have won the WS a few times. Like said above, the goal is to get to the playoffs and anything can happen. The Red's are easily playoff contenders as long as they stay healthy. The health thing applies to every team. The Reds have a top 5 starting pitcher, top 5 hitter, one of the best closers and the fastest player. It's depth if anything that's hurt the Reds but they have elite talent on this team.

If only this franchise was as super-duper lucky as the Giants, we'd have few World Series rings too.

We got rid of an immature pitcher who can't control his feelings and a middling starter to will never be as good as he was in the first half of this year. So I'd say we 'won' by getting cheaper and still being just as good.

But as Falls City said, we're not good enough.

But hey, if only we'd just have any gosh darn luck, we'd think about not dropping balls on the mound and completely disappearing once October starts, we'd be a World Series team.

[Todd Gack]

With how the playoffs go, the goal should be to be pretty good. Get to the playoffs and hope the ball rolls your way.

The Cincinnati Reds just can't be the Dodgers/Cubs/Yankees/Red Sox and just spend more money than everyone else. That's not realistic. So for the Cincinnati Reds the goal should be to be pretty good every year and hope you catch the bounces in the playoffs. I have to wonder, and not specifically towards you KC, but in general, if the Reds had won a playoff series but still not have reached the World Series over the last few years, if people would have a slightly different outlook on reaching the playoffs as being a goal. There'd be something they could look back on as playoffs being successful rather than a total and complete embarrassment given how things have gone in two of the three trips.

Maybe we should ask Oakland A's fans their opinions. They have a ton of experience on this matter.

[dMaus14]

The Giants haven't been good on paper but have won the WS a few times. Like said above, the goal is to get to the playoffs and anything can happen. The Red's are easily playoff contenders as long as they stay healthy. The health thing applies to every team. The Reds have a top 5 starting pitcher, top 5 hitter, one of the best closers and the fastest player. It's depth if anything that's hurt the Reds but they have elite talent on this team.

Top 5 pitcher? Check
Top 5 hitter? If healthy, check
One of the best closers? We have to get a lead and keep a lead for that to play a role
The fastest player? So what .... he needs to get on base above .315

We only have 3 proven starters; no offense in LF & SS; critical health questions in RF and 1B; declining production at 2B. So no they are not "easily" playoff contenders.

[lidspinner]

"Pretty good" would get you a spot in the playoffs when it was just the Reds and Cards as the only relevant teams. Those days are gone. On paper there are four better teams than the Reds in their own division. Yeah, lots of parity, true, but it's a position that's not likely to improve without infusions of talent.

those other teams in ther division have to play each other the same amount of times as we play them all....they,(we) will all beat up on each other and a winner will emerge.....the days of the wild card coming out of the central are probably over being that we all are going to have several losses from in the division but whoever wins the central will be battle tested.....and the best team doesnt have to win the central....its whoever stays healthy and whoever has the ball bounce their way more times....for as bad as the reds played last year, I didnt feel totally out of it until the last 5 weeks of the season......when you have the entire central beating up on each other all season long, someone is going to gain momentum and confidence and play above their heads and someone is going to lose confidence and below well below their means.....we just need to have a manager who can manage the close games and a bull pen who can keep us in close games and everything else will work themselves out.

I like our chances. everybody is going to win 50 games and lose 50 games....its what you do in those other 62 games that make or break you....lets just hope we have a few hot streaks and no cold streaks....injuries will happen, hopefully to other teams....young players will emerge, hopefully from our team......its not the model I would like to follow, but its the model that Walt is putting in front of the fans, we have to like it and root them on or find a new team......I am choosing to root them on and pray the young players find their stride and open some eyes. I have yet to ever watch a season that ended the way I thought it would when April started......our future looks good

[Z-Fly]

those other teams in ther division have to play each other the same amount of times as we play them all....they,(we) will all beat up on each other and a winner will emerge.....the days of the wild card coming out of the central are probably over being that we all are going to have several losses from in the division but whoever wins the central will be battle tested.....and the best team doesnt have to win the central....its whoever stays healthy and whoever has the ball bounce their way more times....for as bad as the reds played last year, I didnt feel totally out of it until the last 5 weeks of the season......when you have the entire central beating up on each other all season long, someone is going to gain momentum and confidence and play above their heads and someone is going to lose confidence and below well below their means.....we just need to have a manager who can manage the close games and a bull pen who can keep us in close games and everything else will work themselves out.

I like our chances. everybody is going to win 50 games and lose 50 games....its what you do in those other 62 games that make or break you....lets just hope we have a few hot streaks and no cold streaks....injuries will happen, hopefully to other teams....young players will emerge, hopefully from our team......its not the model I would like to follow, but its the model that Walt is putting in front of the fans, we have to like it and root them on or find a new team......I am choosing to root them on and pray the young players find their stride and open some eyes. I have yet to ever watch a season that ended the way I thought it would when April started......our future looks good

This would be a great half time speech. Well done!

[LoganBuck]

Walt and BobC are going to have the Winter Meetings Trophy on display at Redsfest 2015. Come see it!

[villain612]

Maybe we should ask Oakland A's fans their opinions. They have a ton of experience on this matter.

Let's ask the Dodgers too.

Highest payroll. Best pitcher in the game. Ton of talent.

Still chasing 1988.

[Norm Chortleton]

Walt and BobC are going to have the Winter Meetings Trophy on display at Redsfest 2015. Come see it!

I just got hired to paint this on the dugout. I'll be starting a thread to solicit volunteers to help me.

[corkedbat]

Got turned around. This should've been posted in this thread. Sorry.

* Next-to-no strategic planning - situation that many have seen coming for some time seem to almost catch them by surprise
* Poorly managed 40 & 25 man rosters
* Letting 4 starters come to their walk year at the same time. No excuse whatsoever. Determinations should have been made two years ago and extended early or dealt
* Leaving gaping holes in the upper minors - the FO rarely deals for significant upper minor league players to fill whole - case in point = shortstop. If nothing else, add another piece if you do deal for a player on the 25-man
* Woeful neglect of the bench and failing to keep any useful depth in the upper minors in case of injury. The bench looks more like a charity ward than a reserve of decent pinch-hitters or a group of professionals ready to step in and contribute if needed
* Loading the bullpen with multiple fat contracts that waste resources that could,ve been used elsewhere
* Ill-advised multi-year contracts wasting resources and obligating roster spots to guys that should be cut
* Un-needed multi-year contracts with mystifying option buyouts
* Doing nothing at the trade deadline over multiple seasons when a move could've legitimately enhanced the team's playoff chances
* Being scared ****less - absolutely short-soaked petrified to do their job - lest some 9 year-old granny from Pisgah might get upset because you dealt Chris Heisey
* Having neglected a gaping maw in LF for years, they finally make a move to seemingly set it up and instead sit around playing with themselves while other club move decisively making themselves better. It leaves observers with the distinct impression that the Reds "brain-trust" has been has been traumatically concussed and was ill-prepared for the vital task at hand

I've gotten upset with Walt (as well as Castellini and the rest of the FO) over several things the last few times. Each times I've let it slide and made my peace. Each individual thing is excusable, but cumulatively? NO Not any more! I'm over Walt.

[Kc61]

* Next-to-no strategic planning - situation that many have seen coming for some time seem to almost catch them by surprise
* Poorly managed 40 & 25 man rosters
* Letting 4 starters come to their walk year at the same time. No excuse whatsoever. Determinations should have been made two years ago and extended early or dealt
* Leaving gaping holes in the upper minors - the FO rarely deals for significant upper minor league players to fill whole - case in point = shortstop. If nothing else, add another piece if you do deal for a player on the 25-man
* Woeful neglect of the bench and failing to keep any useful depth in the upper minors in case of injury. The bench looks more like a charity ward than a reserve of decent pinch-hitters or a group of professionals ready to step in and contribute if needed
* Loading the bullpen with multiple fat contracts that waste resources that could,ve been used elsewhere
* Ill-advised multi-year contracts wasting resources and obligating roster spots to guys that should be cut
* Un-needed multi-year contracts with mystifying option buyouts
* Doing nothing at the trade deadline over multiple seasons when a move could've legitimately enhanced the team's playoff chances
* Being scared ****less - absolutely short-soaked petrified to do their job - lest some 9 year-old granny from Pisgah might get upset because you dealt Chris Heisey
* Having neglected a gaping maw in LF for years, they finally make a move to seemingly set it up and instead sit around playing with themselves while other club move decisively making themselves better. It leaves observers with the distinct impression that the Reds "brain-trust" has been has been traumatically concussed and was ill-prepared for the vital task at hand

How about giving some massive contracts when the team is constantly struggling to afford annual raises and new players.

Not sure that's in there exactly.

[corkedbat]

You're right

[Tommyjohn25]

The only winner of the winter meetings as far as the Reds organization is concerned is Bob Castellini and his checkbook.

[BluegrassRedleg]

The goal should be to win the world series. Any lesser goal and you're setting yourself up for failure.

And I'm not a believer that "anything can happen in the playoffs." If you're relying on luck, you're not trying hard enough.

Agree. It might be the biggest myth perpetuated on this forum. It's not so much about luck as it is going in with momentum, getting hot at the right time and being healthy at the end of the grind.

[RadfordVA]

Agree. It might be the biggest myth perpetuated on this forum. It's not so much about luck as it is going in with momentum, getting hot at the right time and being healthy at the end of the grind.

That would be an even bigger myth. It has been shown in many studies that last month success and things of that nature is not and indicator at all how a team will do in the playoffs. Here is one of those such articles.

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/ml...ths-to-ignore/

Try to be a team that will win more than you lose. The rest is gonna depend on many uncontrollable factors. I don't see any way the 2014 Reds could have avoided their fate with the breaks they got.

Playoffs are a made for tv event designed for drama, not for determining the best team or a team with true "guts". You should not base future decisions on players or indict a teams season on that one month. I personally wouldnt have held the 2010 and 2012 Reds in higher regard if they would have made it further in the playoffs. They were good enough to win divison over 6 months. I will take 6 months of enjoyment every season. If I flip a coin 7 times and heads comes up 4 times before tails does, it does not mean heads did a better job of planning for the series than tails did. This quote from the article sums it up best I believe.

Like individual players’ hot and cold streaks, team streaks come and go without warning. For every team that sustains a late-season trend into October, there’s a team like the 2000 Yankees, who lost 15 of their last 18 regular-season games, posting a minus-89 run differential over that span, and then went on to win the World Series.