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Thread: Why not Tulo?

  1. #16
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Why not Tulo?

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Bailey's an iron man health wise by comparison.
    Hey, contract for contract, roll the dice, pitching is easy to get.. you know the dance.

    Tulo is having the good version of Molitor's career up until 29

    Code:
    
    YEAR TEAM         AGE G    AB    R    H    2B  3B  HR   HR%   RBI  BB   SO   SB   CS  AVG   OBA  SLG   OPS
    1978 Brewers      21  125   521   73  142  26   4   6   1.15   45   19   54   30  12  .273  .301  .372  .673 
    1979 Brewers      22  140   584   88  188  27  16   9   1.54   62   48   48   33  13  .322  .372  .469  .842 
    1980 Brewers      23  111   450   81  137  29   2   9   2.00   37   48   48   34   7  .304  .372  .438  .809 
    1981 Brewers      24   64   251   45   67  11   0   2   0.80   19   25   29   10   6  .267  .341  .335  .675 
    1982 Brewers      25  160   666  136  201  26   8  19   2.85   71   69   93   41   9  .302  .366  .450  .816 
    1983 Brewers      26  152   608   95  164  28   6  15   2.47   47   59   74   41   8  .270  .333  .410  .743 
    1984 Brewers      27   13    46    3   10   1   0   0   0.00    6    2    8    1   0  .217  .245  .239  .484 
    1985 Brewers      28  140   576   93  171  28   3  10   1.74   48   54   80   21   7  .297  .356  .408  .764 
    1986 Brewers      29  105   437   62  123  24   6   9   2.06   55   40   81   20   5  .281  .340  .426  .765 
         TOTALS          1010  4139  676 1203 200  45  79   1.91  390  364  515  231  67  .291  .348  .418  .766 
         LG AVERAGE            3999  514 1049 178  26  97   2.42  484  366  569   75  41  .262  .325  .398  .723 
         POS AVERAGE           3993  525 1056 184  27  80   1.99  439  364  528   86  45  .264  .326  .390  .716 
    
    
    YEAR TEAM         AGE G    AB    R    H    2B  3B  HR   HR%   RBI  BB   SO   SB   CS  AVG   OBA  SLG   OPS
    2006 Rockies      21   25    96   15   23   2   0   1   1.04    6   10   25    3   0  .240  .318  .292  .609 
    2007 Rockies      22  155   609  104  177  33   5  24   3.94   99   57  130    7   7  .291  .359  .479  .838 
    2008 Rockies      23  101   377   48   99  24   2   8   2.12   46   38   56    1   6  .263  .332  .401  .732 
    2009 Rockies      24  151   543  101  161  25   9  32   5.89   92   73  112   20  11  .297  .377  .552  .930 
    2010 Rockies      25  122   470   89  148  32   3  27   5.74   95   48   78   11   2  .315  .381  .568  .949 
    2011 Rockies      26  143   537   81  162  36   2  30   5.59  105   59   79    9   3  .302  .372  .544  .916 
    2012 Rockies      27   47   181   33   52   8   2   8   4.42   27   19   19    2   2  .287  .360  .486  .846 
    2013 Rockies      28  126   446   72  139  27   0  25   5.61   82   57   85    1   0  .312  .391  .540  .931 
    2014 Rockies      29   91   315   71  107  18   1  21   6.67   52   50   57    1   1  .340  .432  .603 1.035 
         TOTALS           961  3574  614 1068 205  24 176   4.92  604  411  641   55  32  .299  .373  .517  .891 
         LG AVERAGE            3448  517  969 199  23 112   3.25  493  328  644   62  23  .281  .347  .424  .771 
         POS AVERAGE           3430  507  967 186  30  76   2.21  401  273  517   90  32  .282  .337  .397  .734


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  3. #17
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    Re: Why not Tulo?

    Quote Originally Posted by cincrazy View Post
    Some of Walt's best deals have come in similar situations. Poaching Big Mac from the A's when his time was up there, reeling in Jim Edmonds from the Angels, acquiring Scott Rolen from the Cardinals. He's practically made a career out of acquiring guys that aren't at the peak of their value at the time of the deal, but turn things around quickly once granted a change of scenery.
    Let me stop you right there. Those deals were nothing like dealing for Tulo. They were salary dumps during a time MLB teams didn't correctly value draft pick compensation. Rolen and McGwire were acquired at the deadline and were rentals that were re-signed. Edmonds was acquired in the offseason with a year left on his contract.

    Very, very different scenarios.

  4. #18
    Member kpresidente's Avatar
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    Re: Why not Tulo?

    Trade Cueto, Phillips, Cozart and Travieso for Tulowitski
    Sign Aaron Harang, 1 year + 1 option
    Trade Sean Marshall and Manny Parra for Bronson Arroyo
    Bring up Jessie Winker

    Lineup:
    Winker, LF
    Frazier, 3B
    Votto, 1B
    Tulo, SS
    Bruce, RF
    Mesoraco, CA
    Suarez, 2B
    Hamilton, CF

    Bench:
    Pena + all the AAAA guys we have

    Rotation:
    Bailey
    Leake
    Harang
    Arroyo
    DeSclafini

    Pen:
    Chapman
    Cingrani
    Diaz
    LeCure
    Hoover
    Corcino
    Holmberg

  5. #19
    Member Tom Servo's Avatar
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    Re: Why not Tulo?

    I kind of like the Bailey for Tulo idea as I have always seen pitching starved Colorado as the logical destination for Homer, but I think I'd rather hold on to Homer all things considered.

    Colorado could use a 2nd baseman, and I could see DatDude being resurgent in Coors ala Justin Morneau and Drew Stubbs. Give Colorado a nice prospect or two and BP for Tulo. Colorado only has to pay BP 3 year/39 mill (by contrast Tulo is owed 60 mill over the next 3 seasons, with another 55 mill on top of that in the ensuing years).


    Of course BP has 10/5 rights so he could just say hell no to going to Denver, and I'm really just playing all hypothetical here anyway.
    “I don’t care,” Votto said of passing his friend and former teammate. “He’s in the past. Bye-bye, Jay.”

  6. #20
    Member cincrazy's Avatar
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    Re: Why not Tulo?

    Is there any evidence that playing at altitude is worse for one's health? It seems like the Rockies have a history of great position player-types (Walker, Galarraga, Tulo, Cargo) that are very productive but can't seem to stay on the field. Can that be attributed in any way to playing in Coors, or is that too much of a reach?

    And again... not saying this deal is likely to happen, and I'm not even necessarily saying the Reds should do it. It's just my opinion that it seems like a stealth, big-impact move Walt would at least inquire into. Yes, there are differences between the trade market now and 15-20 years ago. I never disputed that. But revenues are flowing into the game of baseball and team's will only get richer in the next several years. None of us REALLY know how much Bob has or is willing to spend, so I'm not willing to rule this deal out just because Tulo has over $100 million left on his deal.

    What the Rockies need more than anything is good, young and controllable pitching. We can certainly meet their needs there. And I wouldn't sweat about losing a few pitching prospects to Colorado... how often do pitcher's truly succeed there?

  7. #21
    .377 in 1905 CySeymour's Avatar
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    Re: Why not Tulo?

    The only way I could see Phillips approving a trade is if it gives him a good chance of going to the WS. Otherwise, proposing any trade of him is a waste of time.
    ...the 2-2 to Woodsen and here it comes...and it is swung on and missed! And Tom Browning has pitched a perfect game! Twenty-seven outs in a row, and he is being mobbed by his teammates, just to the thirdbase side of the mound.

  8. #22
    Member RadfordVA's Avatar
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    Re: Why not Tulo?

    You should never look at the total contract size really. It is not the 118 million left the clubs care about the most as the Marlins have clearly shown. It is the 20 million next season. Clearly the Reds have a budget for this coming season that they are near or within about 10 million of. That is what Jocketty is concerned with. To make this work they could theoretically do it. Would probably mean losing Chapman and someone like Cueto or Bailey to do it and make up that 20 million dollar difference in the payroll. The question then becomes is the team actually any better. But they could absolutely do it if they wanted to. The 118 number takes less precedence than the 20 IMO.

  9. #23
    Member corkedbat's Avatar
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    Re: Why not Tulo?

    Quote Originally Posted by RadfordVA View Post
    You should never look at the total contract size really. It is not the 118 million left the clubs care about the most as the Marlins have clearly shown. It is the 20 million next season. Clearly the Reds have a budget for this coming season that they are near or within about 10 million of. That is what Jocketty is concerned with. To make this work they could theoretically do it. Would probably mean losing Chapman and someone like Cueto or Bailey to do it and make up that 20 million dollar difference in the payroll. The question then becomes is the team actually any better. But they could absolutely do it if they wanted to. The 118 number takes less precedence than the 20 IMO.
    If Tulo plays 120 or fewer games again next year you dang well better be worrying about every cent of that $118M.

  10. #24
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: Why not Tulo?

    Quote Originally Posted by kpresidente View Post
    Sign Aaron Harang, 1 year + 1 option
    I love the idea of bringing Harang back even if it's just on a minor league deal. I'd like to see him retire as a Red. But considering his season with the Braves last year...that isn't coming very soon...and him signing a 1 year deal also ain't happening.

  11. #25
    Member RadfordVA's Avatar
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    Re: Why not Tulo?

    Quote Originally Posted by corkedbat View Post
    If Tulo plays 120 or fewer games again next year you dang well better be worrying about every cent of that $118M.
    If it didn't work out the Reds would be forced into rebuilding mode anyways at which the yearly payroll would not be as tight. You would just skimp on other parts of payroll.

    Payrolls are done yearly not 6 years into the future. Always a way to massage it on a year to year basis. That is why contracts are back loaded and then payments deferred sometimes. Its called kicking the can down the road.

  12. #26
    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
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    Re: Why not Tulo?

    The problem with kicking the can down the road is eventually you DO catch up with the can
    99% of all numbers only tell 33% of the story so when looking at the numbers remember that numbers is plural...

  13. #27
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    Re: Why not Tulo?

    Quote Originally Posted by corkedbat View Post
    Tulo is one of the last players in MLB that the Reds have any business even consider thinking about trying to acquire. Heading into free agency, injury-prone and massively paid. A guy that would eat up resources (money & young talent).
    Heading into free agency ... 7 years from now.

  14. #28
    Member RadfordVA's Avatar
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    Re: Why not Tulo?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedlegJake View Post
    The problem with kicking the can down the road is eventually you DO catch up with the can
    Not always. That is the reason for doing it.

    20 million will not necessarily mean the same thing in 4 years it does now. Just in 2009 15 million would have put you in top 20 of salaries. Today it is the qualifying offer that everyone turns down.

    It may catch up with someone but not necessarily the people who sign the contract. GM's are moving around at the highest rate ever. Not necessarily the greatest incentive to think about 5 years down road as it once was.

    If a player was good enough to sign a big deal there is always a team willing to gamble on that talent and offset some of the cost. A few months ago the Dodgers were on the hook to Kemp for a large total. After this season they only owe 3.5 million a season. Which would not be much of a factor at all on a teams payroll even for a mid market team like the Reds.

  15. #29
    Member Tom Servo's Avatar
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    Re: Why not Tulo?

    Nick Groke ‏@nickgroke 9h9 hours ago
    Troy Tulowitzki after another #Rockies loss: "Hopefully I can be into every single pitch and pretend like something is on the line."


    Wow, never mind, that line was horribly out of context.

    http://blogs.denverpost.com/rockies/...-better/20423/
    Last edited by Tom Servo; 07-22-2015 at 09:25 AM.
    “I don’t care,” Votto said of passing his friend and former teammate. “He’s in the past. Bye-bye, Jay.”

  16. #30
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    Re: Why not Tulo?

    To directly answer the question
    First the facts
    1.) He is owed a 120 million over the next 6 years.
    2.) He has averaged 105 games per season for the last 5 years at ages 25-29
    3.) He will be 31 to start 2016
    4.) In his peak years he was a .825 OPS bat on the road.

    Now the opinion
    1.) He won't be more healthy as he gets older
    2.) I see no way and often injured, 6'3"215 pound guy can be an effective defensive SS ages 31-37
    3.) Unless is starts rummaging through David Ortiz's medicine cabinet I don't see him becoming a better hitter outside his peak years.

    In conclusion, how does trading away top prospects and tying up 20 million per year for next 6 years on a often injured, sub .800 OPS corner infielder who is on the downside of his career help the Reds?

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