Trade Cueto right now

[fipp]

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/201...-cueto-now-mlb

The Reds are not contenders. That statement shouldn’t shock anyone reading this. Anything can happen in baseball, and as Yogi Berra famously said, "It ain’t over till it’s over." I could be eating my words come September 30th, but that seems unlikely given the current roster construction of the Reds. Fangraphs has them pegged for 76 wins, while PECOTA is projecting a slightly better season finishing with 79 wins. It may be tough to accept, as hope springs eternal for all 30 MLB teams this early in the spring, but it’s evident that the Reds need to trade Johnny Cueto, and the sooner the better.

Anyone who disagrees with the author?

[dougdirt]

I disagree with him.

Do the Reds need some help to contend? Sure. They need to stay healthy. But if they can stay mostly healthy, they've got quality pitching and they've got a quality offense. See where you are in June. If you aren't seeing a chance, a true chance, then trade Cueto. Doing it now means that no matter how good the rest of the team is, you aren't doing anything. This team has enough talent on it to be pretty good. Wait and see, adjust on the fly if needed.

[757690]

The definition of a contender these days is very different from the definition of one just a decade ago. The writer doesn't seem to understand that. Parity is the new black.

[SweetLou1990]

The Reds wouldn't trade him until after the All-Star game, if they are out of the race only. But here's to hoping they can't trade him.

[fipp]

I disagree with him.

Do the Reds need some help to contend? Sure. They need to stay healthy. But if they can stay mostly healthy,

I don't know what you are talking about. Have you actually seen those projections? Both Fangraphs and PECOTA projections assume that every team in MLB stays mostly healthy, in fact every projection system does. So that means that the problem for the Reds is not the health but the talent.

they've got quality pitching and they've got a quality offense.

Is this a joke or something?

[RedlegJake]

fipp, why would you assume that's a joke? ....pitching IS strong, defense is tremendous. Offense has question marks - which all but about 3 or 4 offenses in baseball have. I'm not pie-in-the-sky - I pick them for about 85-86 wins and just missing out on the playoffs, mostly bc of OBP problems, but they are hardly horrible.

[dubc47834]

I don't know what you are talking about. Have you actually seen those projections? Both Fangraphs and PECOTA projections assume that every team in MLB stays mostly healthy, in fact every projection system does. So that means that the problem for the Reds is not the health but the talent.


Is this a joke or something?

Key word there...PROJECTION. Reds are going to be solid. Prolly won't make the playoffs, but not gonna be unbearable to watch either. You've got 3 post and you're attacking people, not a good look man!

[dougdirt]

I don't know what you are talking about. Have you actually seen those projections? Both Fangraphs and PECOTA projections assume that every team in MLB stays mostly healthy, in fact every projection system does. So that means that the problem for the Reds is not the health but the talent.


Is this a joke or something?

Projections constantly under project Cueto and Votto because they tend to control their respective peripherals better than the average does. They both think Devin Mesoraco is a lot closer to his 2013 self than his 2014 self.

If Joey Votto is healthy and can OPS .875, Jay Bruce is healthy and can OPS .800 while Frazier and Mesoraco are remotely close to the guys they were last year, the offense IS going to be fine, if not quite good. Not the best in the league, but int he top half (of the NL - the AL with the DH sways things their way).

The pitching - Cueto/Bailey/Leake is a good 1-2-3. They need to stay healthy though. Cingrani, when healthy, has shown he's awfully good. There's risk there because of his health and questionable secondary offerings though. DeSclafani has strong peripherals that project much better than his 2014 ERA was. If he pitches to his peripherals he posted last year, he's going to be pretty good. The bullpen may need some help, but bullpens are fickle in general. The Reds have a lot of options to choose from. And they've got Chapman.

I'm not saying they are a lock to be very good. I'm saying there's a reasonable chance they could be and I'm not throwing that chance away before I see what we've got.

[kaldaniels]

Bear in mind, the plethora of injuries last season have dampened the projections for this season even moreso than usual as they are factoring in the possibility of continued poor health and the crummy play of 2013 (oft atributed to injuries). There is a basis for that, so I'm not questioning why they do that. But given just slightly above average health this season (gulp), the Reds should contend.

[lidspinner]

I don't know what you are talking about. Have you actually seen those projections? Both Fangraphs and PECOTA projections assume that every team in MLB stays mostly healthy, in fact every projection system does. So that means that the problem for the Reds is not the health but the talent.


Is this a joke or something?

I am of the mind that the Reds do have quality on their staff and in their pen and on offense....not every Yankees team that was stocked full of talent won the pennant.....not every Red Sox team who over paid to get every free agent under the sun came through like they were supposed to...not every Rangers team or Angels team did what they were supposed to do....why is that??? its because its baseball and and all it takes is for 1 pitcher to have a good few games and get some confidence and/or 1 offensive guy get hot and take his game to the next level that all the scouts and so called experts never thought they could do....once that happens on a team like the Reds, or the Athletics or the Rays or the Pirates or the Twins, then all those big name teams start to get a little scared and then they start to play scared......then the divivsion is all of a sudden up for grabs and your staring August in the face and your players start playing with a little pep in their step.....

the Reds have a good team put together....its not the exact team I would have hoped that they built given the options that I thought were available to them but non the less they still have a team that is capable of winning 90 games....they have a few young pitchers that other teams have not seen a whole lot of so they might catch a spark and take us deep into the season.
Trading JC right now tosses up the white flag before the season even starts and fans will revolt unless they go out there and put up 10 game winning streaks every month.....waiting until the deadline gives the Reds a chance to let the team gel, let the players make their own destiny and at the same time if you suck, you know there will be a team who thinks they are a JC away from winning it all and they will overpay for him.....they will pay more for him then they would now....

[Billy Budd]

The time to trade Cueto was last year, when you may have gotten something of worth ie top level hitting prospects, middle infielders, etc.
Perhaps, PERHAPS, they could swing a deal with the Red Sox, but I believe that the teams with well stocked farm systems in areas where the Reds need help right away... will not cash out their top prospects for a two month rental.

You might as well run him out there and pray by some miracle this club can win--because that back half of the rotation is awfully, AWFULLY sketchy.

[scotly50]

The Bullpen and our Offense are issues. After the meltdown to the Giants in the playoffs, this team should have been overhauled. That was our best shot and we fell short. We have been in decline ever since. I remember they changed their approach to our hitters after they got down two. It has been working against us ever since.

[RAY]

You guys are living in denial.

http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2015/3/4...nals-and-their

THE REDS ARE THE WEAKEST TEAM IN THE CENTRAL. There are paths by which the Reds avoid sinking to the bottom of the standings. The team isn't barren of talent. Walt Jocketty is dreaming Joey Votto and Jay Bruce are co-comeback players of the year, Marlon Byrd doesn't decline (he's 37), Todd Frazier illustrates his 2014 was his true talent level and Billy Hamilton hits half as well as he runs. A few of Jocketty's dreams probably come true but in reality the Reds lineup will have trouble scoring runs and the starting rotation is not special. The only position player on the Reds with more than a 50/50 shot to be better his Cardinals coequal is Votto. Johnny Cueto is a good bet to be traded in July.

THERE IS A 40% CHANCE THE CARDINALS WIN THE DIVISION. I'll give the Pirates a 30% chance. The Cubs a 20% chance. The Brewers an 8% chance and the Reds a 2% chance.

CENTRAL DIVISION WIN TOTALS +/- 4:
Cardinals 88
Pirates 87
Cubs 84
Brewers 79
Reds 76

[RAY]

The Reds will have to commit to a Cubs-ian rebuild in the coming years.

[Old school 1983]

Don't feed the junkhead!