Trade Cueto right now

[RAY]

pitching IS strong

29th out of 30 by the projected WAR.
http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=SP

[Tom Servo]

Well damn, if a Cardinals blog says we're finishing last, might as well just forfeit the whole season.

[RAY]

If Joey Votto is healthy and can OPS .875, Jay Bruce is healthy and can OPS .800 while Frazier and Mesoraco are remotely close to the guys they were last year, the offense IS going to be fine, if not quite good. Not the best in the league, but int he top half (of the NL - the AL with the DH sways things their way).

That's just ridiculous.
Do you remember the 2012 Reds? Do you also remember the fact that they were a below league-average offense team?

First, the idea that the team can make up for the lack of OBP with the SLG is simply not a good one.
Second, I’m afraid you can’t make up for this level of OBP deficiency with the SLG.

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/woba/

wOBA is based on a simple concept: Not all hits are created equal. Batting average assumes that they are. On-base percentage does too, but does one better by including other ways of reaching base such as walking or being hit by a pitch. Slugging percentage weights hits, but not accurately (Is a double worth twice as much as a single? In short, no) and again ignores other ways of reaching base. On-base plus slugging (OPS) does attempt to combine the different aspects of hitting into one metric, but it assumes that one percentage point of SLG is the same as that of OBP. In reality, a handy estimate is that OBP is around twice as valuable than SLG (the exact ratio is x1.8). In short, OPS is asking the right question, but we can arrive at a more accurate number quite easily.

The 2012 Reds offense had 22 more doubles, 10 more triples, 17 more home runs, 100 more TB, 2 more ROE, 20 more SB, 8 less CS, 29 less GDP, a 2 points higher BA and a 20 points higher SLG than the 2013 Reds offense. But the 2012 Reds (9th in Runs) scored 29 less runs than the 2013 Reds (3rd in Runs), even with more favorable run-scoring environment for them than for the 2013 team and the manager of the 2013 team not making the best use of Choo by letting the one of the worst hitter in baseball hit behind him. Why? The 2012 Reds had a 12 points lower OBP than the 2013 Reds.

- LEAGUE AVERAGES -
2012 NL: 683 Runs, .254/.318/.400/.718
2013 NL: 649 Runs, .251/.315/.388/.703

- The two-hole for the Reds (2013) -
.228/.281/.350/.632 (30th in AVG, 30th in OBP, 26th in SLG)


For your information, the following are OBPs (Min 300 PA) for the 2012 Reds.

Votto: .474
Hanigan: .365
Ludwick: .346
Frazier: .331
Bruce: .327
Phillips: .321
Rolen: .318
Heisey: .315
Cozart: .288
Stubbs: .277

and the 2012 Reds offense faced the crappy pitching in Brewers, Cubs and Astros many times during the season.

- Team ERA (2012) -
Cardinals (6th), Pirates (8th), Brewers (13th), Cubs (14th), Astros (15th)

- Team ERA (2013) -
Pirates (3rd), Cardinals (5th), Brewers (9th), Cubs (12th)

Look at those OBPs. The 2012 Reds were 12th in OBP in NL and the 2015 Reds are a much more OBP-challenged team than the 2012 team.

[RAY]

Well damn, if a Cardinals blog says we're finishing last, might as well just forfeit the whole season.

You know it's not just a Cardinals blog. Every projection, every prediction and every baseball writer says that the Reds suck.

[RAY]

The 2012 Reds won 97 games,

1.With a below league-average offense against these pitching staffs.

- Team ERA (2012) -
Cardinals (6th), Pirates (8th), Brewers (13th), Cubs (14th), Astros (15th)

- Team ERA (2013) -
Pirates (3rd), Cardinals (5th), Brewers (9th), Cubs (12th)


2. With a rotation that saw five guys all notch at least 30 starts each (only 7 starting rotations in history had done this before).

http://marksheldon.mlblogs.com/2012/...-special-year/



3. In a weakest division in baseball at that time.

- WPCT -
29. Cubs 61-101 (.377)
30. Astros 55-107 (.340)


4. With a worse defense than the 2013 team

2012: 0.712 DE (12th in MLB), 1.18 PADE (11th in MLB)
2013: 0.727 DE (1st in MLB), 2.57 PADE (2nd in MLB)


You keep mentioning SLG and other factors. Okay, here are the PECOTA's projections which are the most favorable one to the Reds among many projections.

- SLG -
Brewers: .400
Cardinals: .396
Pirates: .394
Cubs: .392
Reds: .379

Only Braves, Phillies and Giants are worse in NL.

The reason that I emphasize the OBP is because this is the most basic and important thing for every team to score runs and this is what the Reds need the most among many things. Even Jocketty himself said at the end of last season that "the Reds need a different approach, have to stress OBP more" and then he traded for Byrd.

[RAY]

Well damn, if a Cardinals blog says we're finishing last, might as well just forfeit the whole season.

By the way, let me ask you a question: Do you still want to defend Walt as a GM. I know you are a Walt enthusiast.

[Old school 1983]

I heard junkheads thrive off of a steady diet of images from Cards blogs.

[RAY]

This from Jonah Keri.
http://grantland.com/the-triangle/20...ampa-bay-rays/

Cincinnati Reds: UNDER 78.5 wins

Here’s what really worries me about the Reds: If they’re out of or even on the fringes of the race come July, they’ll have so many veteran players — notably, Johnny Cueto and Jay Bruce — who’d make tempting trade bait that it would be hard to imagine them holding on to either one. The projection systems peg them at 77, and even that could be a bit too high, especially if the team gets off to a slow start.

[Tom Servo]

By the way, let me ask you a question: Do you still want to defend Walt as a GM. I know you are a Walt enthusiast.

Well it's pretty impressive that you know I am a "Walt enthusiast" considering you just registered here, but sure, put me in that check box. I think the team as currently constructed can make a run of it in 2015. If they fall flat on their face like they did the 2nd half of last season, I'd probably encourage making a change in regards to Price/Jocketty's job status.

[RAY]

I think the team as currently constructed can make a run of it in 2015.

I just can't believe it. So, you are basically saying that all those projections, predictions and baseball experts are wrong?

[Tom Servo]

I just can't believe it. So, you are basically saying that all those projections, predictions and baseball experts are wrong?

I was not aware projections and predictions are set in stone. I must have missed an announcement.

I'm a big believer in statistics, but I'm also a Reds fan and an optimist. Votto stays healthy, Bruce rights the ship, and Hamilton either gets on base more or gets moved down in the lineup and the offense should be pretty good. A little more bearish on the pitching but we have a lot of arms competing in spring training and a healthy Cingrani could be a game changer.

[Old school 1983]

Tom! Don't feed the junkhead!

[RAY]

Tom! Don't feed the junkhead!

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showt...podcast/page30

The one thing I know for sure: Placing a speedy out-machine in the leadoff spot is just a stupid old-school idea.

[RAY]

I was not aware projections and predictions are set in stone. I must have missed an announcement.

I'm a big believer in statistics, but I'm also a Reds fan and an optimist. Votto stays healthy, Bruce rights the ship, and Hamilton either gets on base more or gets moved down in the lineup and the offense should be pretty good. A little more bearish on the pitching but we have a lot of arms competing in spring training and a healthy Cingrani could be a game changer.

OK, I give up.

[Old school 1983]

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showt...podcast/page30

The Reds offensive woes last year had more to do with Votto being out and Bruce having a down year than Billy in the lineup. And no matter what your screen name is, you still don't get that not bringing Choo back wasn't based On an offensive talent assesment between he and Hamilton. We all get that. It was based on cost and age. You've contantky failed to see that. Choo is one of my favorite players, but I can barely stand to discuss this because you can't separate your fandom for a player from an analysis that showed the Reds couldn't likely afford him and he was and injury risk because of his age.

You seem like a reasonably intelligent guy. You make some good points, but at this point you're just trolling the board and certain members. We all get that Choo is a better hitter than Hamilton. We get that Kang has a chance to be good. We get that the Reds aren't the favorite in the Central. Quit picking on people and topics while using obviously biased sources and trolling techniques, and I wouldn't mind talking baseball with you.