Who will hit third for the Cincinnati Reds?

[CySeymour]

He strikes out consistently less than 100 times per season, and if Votto isn't going to sack up and try to do everything he can to get the run in from second or third with less than two outs, then I want Phillips and his attitde to do it.

So you like a team that only plays for one run at a time? On average, you need about 5 runs a game to win. You don't get that many runs a game only playing for one run at a time.

[SuperFan17]

So you like a team that only plays for one run at a time? On average, you need about 5 runs a game to win. You don't get that many runs a game only playing for one run at a time.

Let's see.... with the runs scored per game at its lowest in 25 years. Yes, I will take a run when I can get it.

[SuperFan17]

Phillips may strike out less than 100 times a year, but he also leads the league in outs nearly every year. Outs aren't conducive to scoring runs.

As for "sacking up", I'd rather a guy not swing at garbage to try and making something happen (Phillips). Swinging at garbage leads to garbage contact and outs. That's bad.

Well, since Phillips is the best player on the Reds for productive outs, then I believe it is a good thing that he is there in the three spot getting things done.

[SlimJim11]

When was it that BP became such a great RBI man anyway? I mean if you are really into that stat, why is he considered so good at it? He's had under 85 rbi 4 of the last 5 years. And the year he had 103, who knows how rbi many a real "rbi man" would have had with Choo and Votto in the lineup.

[Redhook]

Well, since Phillips is the best player on the Reds for productive outs, then I believe it is a good thing that he is there in the three spot getting things done.

Nothing like getting it done by making a whole bunch of productive outs batting third. Wow. I honestly can't tell if you're serious or just playing around with your comments because they're so far off base.

[CySeymour]

Let's see.... with the runs scored per game at its lowest in 25 years. Yes, I will take a run when I can get it.

Hey, so I guess losing 4-1 is better than losing 4-0. Uh, no. A team needs to go into each game knowing they need to score 5 runs to win. Playing for a run at a time does not get you there. It's the equivalent of playing for field goals in football.

[swaisuc]

The only thing more overrated than Phillips' hitting is who bats 3rd in the lineup.

[SuperFan17]

Hey, so I guess losing 4-1 is better than losing 4-0. Uh, no. A team needs to go into each game knowing they need to score 5 runs to win. Playing for a run at a time does not get you there. It's the equivalent of playing for field goals in football.

Here's my opinion... and perhaps what Price is thinking.....
The Reds hitters strike out at a RIDICULOUS rate. 2014 showed them to have the third lowest productive out ratio in the major leagues.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/productive?tp=team


There are four hitters (based on the 2014 stats) that struck out less than 20% of the time per plate appearance.
Billy Hamilton -- 19.14%
Joey Votto -- 18.01%
Zach Cozart -- 14.54%
Brandon Phillips -- 14.82%

Now, with that being said-- If Hamilton gets on base (and that is a big if) then the chances are (if Votto can be a patient two hitter) Hamilton can work his way around to either second or third--hence RBI position. Votto, being Votto, can then either draw a walk, OR hit Hamilton in. Then that brings up Phillips. Phillips, who in 2014 had a 50% productive out rate, can either knock in Hamilton (if Votto has not done so) OR move Votto around. Essentially, placing Phillips in the three spot allows the Reds to POSSIBLY move runners into a better scoring position, for the whiffers to "walk" into a hit.

Whiffers
Frazier -- 21.06 %
Mesoraco -- 23.41 %
Bruce -- 27.33 %
Byrd -- 29.04 %

Surely, you can see the logic in that statement.

[CySeymour]

Here's my opinion... and perhaps what Price is thinking.....
The Reds hitters strike out at a RIDICULOUS rate. 2014 showed them to have the third lowest productive out ratio in the major leagues.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/productive?tp=team


There are four hitters (based on the 2014 stats) that struck out less than 20% of the time per plate appearance.
Billy Hamilton -- 19.14%
Joey Votto -- 18.01%
Zach Cozart -- 14.54%
Brandon Phillips -- 14.82%

Now, with that being said-- If Hamilton gets on base (and that is a big if) then the chances are (if Votto can be a patient two hitter) Hamilton can work his way around to either second or third--hence RBI position. Votto, being Votto, can then either draw a walk, OR hit Hamilton in. Then that brings up Phillips. Phillips, who in 2014 had a 50% productive out rate, can either knock in Hamilton (if Votto has not done so) OR move Votto around. Essentially, placing Phillips in the three spot allows the Reds to POSSIBLY move runners into a better scoring position, for the whiffers to "walk" into a hit.

Whiffers
Frazier -- 21.06 %
Mesoraco -- 23.41 %
Bruce -- 27.33 %
Byrd -- 29.04 %

Surely, you can see the logic in that statement.

I get what you're saying, and I respect your opinion. The problem is, the #3 hitter, who gets the third most plate appearances, will being someone who makes way too many outs for someone who hits that often. If using your list of whiffers is the options for #3, I'd say Mesoraco would be the better choice.

[SuperFan17]

I think a strong argument can be made for Mesoraco as the third hitter--for sure, especially with a .360 OBP; however, Mes has still not played in more than 75% of a major league season.

Price has indicated that he would like for Mes to play 135-140 games this year behind the plate.
http://www.foxsports.com/ohio/story/...e-games-022015

So, in essence, I suppose one day off a week. It will be interesting to see if Mesoraco can stay healthy enough to play that many games behing the plate, and if he has the strength and stamina to replicate the numbers from last year. If I am Price, and my job is on the line (who knows if it is or is not) I would to take some solace knowing that, at the beginning of the season, I can pencil in a performer who, when healthy, has been a consistent contributor and a professional hitter like Phillips.

And then, if Mesoraco proves he is capable of repeating his hitting, then allow the three spot to have fluidity in it.
I think though, if you do that, Phillips will stay near the top of the order (four spot or five spot).

What bothers me about this Reds offense, is that no matter how you slice and dice it, you have a lot of strike-outs in consecutive order. Which, to me, is a dangerous position to be in--especially now that the decline of the home run is in full effect, pitching is dominant, the Whiffers are not the most fleet of foot, and there are a LOT of potentially non-productive outs. Which would make getting a runner around to score with a group of batters striking out almost 25% of the time, a severe challenge.

http://sportswithneil.com/2014/06/30...e-to-pitching/

[SlimJim11]

There are four hitters (based on the 2014 stats) that struck out less than 20% of the time per plate appearance.
Billy Hamilton -- 19.14%
Joey Votto -- 18.01%
Zach Cozart -- 14.54%
Brandon Phillips -- 14.82%

Take away Votto and that list is basically our 3 worst hitters. Give me guys that strike out more often but hit the ball hard when they make contact, over guys that strike out less and make weak contact over and over. You can keep your productive out makers, I'll take base collectors.

[dougdirt]

Well, since Phillips is the best player on the Reds for productive outs, then I believe it is a good thing that he is there in the three spot getting things done.

Best player on the Reds for productive outs :: Nicest smelling garbage dump

Being the best of something that isn't good isn't a compliment.

[SuperFan17]

Take away Votto and that list is basically our 3 worst hitters. Give me guys that strike out more often but hit the ball hard when they make contact, over guys that strike out less and make weak contact over and over. You can keep your productive out makers, I'll take base collectors.

I disagree with your opinion that Phillips is one of the worst hitters in the line-up. But, alas we shall have to agree to disagree on this subject. I look forward to the time when Brandon is driving in runs, moving runners over, and not whiffing in clutch at-bats, when a productive at bat is called for.

[SuperFan17]

Best player on the Reds for productive outs :: Nicest smelling garbage dump

Being the best of something that isn't good isn't a compliment.

Thank you for interesting analysis, DougDirt.
I like to look at different things, when I am trying to evaluate a reason as to why Brandon Phillips is the third hitter for this line-up-- as opposed to Votto, Byrd, Bruce, Frazier, Mesoraco.

I am wondering what is the tangible thing that Baker and Price see in Phillips. What is it, that two professional managers with much more knowledge and breadth of baseball, chose a player like Phillips--who according to so many passionate posters on this website--is clearly hands down a horrific offensive player.

So, yes, I look at productive outs. I look at strike out rates. I look at what a player does with two strikes--incidentally, for his career, Phillips has a .214 average and a .569 OPS with two strikes. Those numbers, batting average is second best on the Reds projected 2015 line-up. And the OPS with two strikes fourth on the 2015 projected line-up.

I will yield to you that Votto is the best hitter on this team.

However, there is a reason, beyond perhaps numbers as to why both Baker and Price believe in batting Phillips in important offensive slots.
I do believe that with certain players that strikeouts vs power have benefits than just trying to go the other way with a pitch.

However, hitters and organizations, I would think, should recognize that not every player is a all or nothing hitter. That certain players need to know their limitations, know the situation in the game, and understand that perhaps there are moments, when going for a homerun on two strikes is not the most prudent thing to do.

I believe Phillips is one of those players that recognizes when he needs to shorten up. When he needs to move hitters around. When he needs to play the game the way it was drawn up, and that is to make efforts to possibly go the other way or move along a runner. And I believe that because Phillips gets it. Because Phillips understands the dynamics of the game of baseball, managers like Baker and Price put their trust in him to do the right thing, and be a professional hitter, if you will.

That's all.

[SlimJim11]

I disagree with your opinion that Phillips is one of the worst hitters in the line-up.

Well we can look up some info.

Numbers from the 2012-2014 seasons

Phillips - .269/.313/.401/.714

Bruce - .245/.314/.459/.773

Frazier - .259/.327/.452/.779

Rocco - .249/.320/.436/.756

Byrd - .269/.315/.450/.765


Looks like out of the rest of the group he's worst in OBP and SLG% and he's at least .040 points behind everybody in OPS. In fact BP's highest OPS in those 3 years is .750 which is below the other 4's average OPS in that time frame. He's got that BA though.