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Thread: 2015 Draft - Best/Worst

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    Winning the Human Race TheBigLebowski's Avatar
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    2015 Draft - Best/Worst

    Yes, I am well aware that it may just be a little bit too early to call some of these guys superstars and label others busts. But that's never stopped us from having these types of discussions before.

    Give us your favorite pick of the draft and the one that most left you scratching your head. "Worst" pick may be a bit harsh, but there had to be at least a couple of selections that drove you crazy either because of the pick itself or the opportunity cost of the pick itself (player/s we passed over for the pick).

    Really liked the Stephenson pick and I am really intrigued by Miles Gordon but my favorite pick was Blake Trahan. I've seen him play quite a few times this year, most recently vs. LSU in the Super Regionals, and I have always been impressed with him. He's versatile, polished and should be MLB ready within 2 years or less.

    The pick I was not so crazy about was Santillan. Live arm, yes, but a HUGE work in progress who may never figure it out. And....represented by Boras, which is never good news. Means we'll likely have to pay this guy like a 1st round sure thing when he's anything but. Best case comparison to me is Johnny Cueto, which would obviously be incredible. Worst case scenario is he never gets past AA. And there were a lot of really good players to be had in that spot.

    Lastly, I have also seen our 25th rd pick, 1B James Vasquez from Central Florida, several times. I really like this guy and would not be shocked at all if he not only sticks but has a productive career.
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    Re: 2015 Draft - Best/Worst

    Quote Originally Posted by TheBigLebowski View Post
    Yes, I am well aware that it may just be a little bit too early to call some of these guys superstars and label others busts. But that's never stopped us from having these types of discussions before.

    Give us your favorite pick of the draft and the one that most left you scratching your head. "Worst" pick may be a bit harsh, but there had to be at least a couple of selections that drove you crazy either because of the pick itself or the opportunity cost of the pick itself (player/s we passed over for the pick).

    Really liked the Stephenson pick and I am really intrigued by Miles Gordon but my favorite pick was Blake Trahan. I've seen him play quite a few times this year, most recently vs. LSU in the Super Regionals, and I have always been impressed with him. He's versatile, polished and should be MLB ready within 2 years or less.

    The pick I was not so crazy about was Santillan. Live arm, yes, but a HUGE work in progress who may never figure it out. And....represented by Boras, which is never good news. Means we'll likely have to pay this guy like a 1st round sure thing when he's anything but. Best case comparison to me is Johnny Cueto, which would obviously be incredible. Worst case scenario is he never gets past AA. And there were a lot of really good players to be had in that spot.

    Lastly, I have also seen our 25th rd pick, 1B James Vasquez from Central Florida, several times. I really like this guy and would not be shocked at all if he not only sticks but has a productive career.
    Trahan does seem like a great pick, Sun Belt Conference POY, Third Team All-American. Sounds like he should stick at SS. Love the plate discipline (112 BBs to 95 SOs in his college career). Coach called him a leader both on-and-off the field. Wants to be a strength coach after his playing career is over.

    When asked by the Times-Picayune what his best attribute was, he said, "Being able to play the game hard every pitch. Being a grinder. Baseball is a game where you don't always play great. You have to grind through it and play hard. I think that's what I do best.''

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    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: 2015 Draft - Best/Worst

    I don't think Santillan is a bad pick for the second round.
    Yea, he's represented by Boras, but if Boras tries to make some power play, the Reds will get a 2nd round pick next year for not signing him.
    Also, I have a good feeling that the Reds "feel out" all their high draft picks and have a good idea what it would take to sign them.
    Obviously, they wouldn't pick him out of the blue, having no idea what his price tag is.

    The guy is a high risk-high reward guy.. Yea, the odds say he will probably flame out, but it sure beats getting a guy who's likely upside is a utility infielder. I also trust the Reds judgement that they watched him pitch and they feel they can straighten out his mechanics. Plus, drafting HS pitchers is really not that bad of an idea. They are spared the abuse of their college career. I know the conventional wisdom used to say that college pitchers were better, let the NCAA wash out a lot of the injury problems, but it seems better to get them in High school and put them on a safe schedule.

    The overall theme of this draft seemed to be all about grabbing upside, along with a few pitchers that could rise fast as bullpen arms.
    Love that strategy. I imagine they may sign fewer players after round 10 this year than they normally do, but they have plenty of options for spreading that extra slot money left over.

    I guess I really don't have a favorite or least favorite at this point.. too early for me. Maybe my favorites are the guys that have already signed?
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    Re: 2015 Draft - Best/Worst

    Santillan is easily my least favorite pick, great upside but the risks seem too high for a pick at this spot. Stephenson I love, Gordon I really like, too. Trahan is a great pick at that spot. Kahaloa and Herget seem like great picks. I really like what they did right through the 25th pick with Vazquez. How many of these guys 11-40 that they are actually able to sign will have a big impact on how deep this draft goes but I would not be surprised as years pass that this turns out to be one of the better drafts they've had.
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    Re: 2015 Draft - Best/Worst

    New Reds draft strategy draft Pitchers who can bat because of playing other positions. The other part of the strategy is drafting position players who can pitch. 22 or so of them on the 25 man roster and the bench and bullpen problem is solved.

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    Re: 2015 Draft - Best/Worst

    Stephenson by a mile for me. If he grows, he's a LF/RF'er, if not, the successor to Mez or whomever mans the C position for the reds the next 4'ish+yrs.
    Herget I also love, w/ his sindwinding sinker action. Would love for the reds to take more P's w/ goofy releases/mechanics, they seem to be working more times than they're hurting if they make it to the bigs.
    Last edited by Banshee; 06-12-2015 at 04:30 AM.

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    Overton Window Breaker WrongVerb's Avatar
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    Re: 2015 Draft - Best/Worst

    Love Stephenson
    Intrigued by Gordon

    Also intrigued by Santillan. I don't think he's Cueto, as someone mentioned above, but rather closer to Bartolo Colon. Big guy. Big fastball and great curve. Can he repeat his delivery? That comes down to athleticism. Does he have it or not? Time will tell.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there always has been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that “my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge." -- Isaac Asimov

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    Re: 2015 Draft - Best/Worst

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    I don't think Santillan is a bad pick for the second round.
    Yea, he's represented by Boras, but if Boras tries to make some power play, the Reds will get a 2nd round pick next year for not signing him.
    When you've got a pitching-rich system, why take on a project? And use the 2nd round to do it?
    The widow is gathering nettles for her children's dinner; a perfumed seigneur, delicately lounging in the Oeil de Boeuf, hath an alchemy whereby he will extract the third nettle and call it rent. ~ Carlyle

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    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: 2015 Draft - Best/Worst

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo View Post
    When you've got a pitching-rich system, why take on a project? And use the 2nd round to do it?
    Valid point.
    By making him a 2nd round pick, they are very confident that they'll be able to fix him.
    I'm sure that figured into why they considered him the best available player.
    Maybe they will be wrong, it's hard to say. If nothing else, the drama of following this guy's career will make for some interesting conversation.

    Interesting, I looked it up

    http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1...leagues/page/3
    For those players drafted in the second round of the draft, the chances of reaching the major leagues drops to 49 percent.
    That's higher than I expected, even considering that a "cup of coffee" counts as reaching the big leagues.

    At least the Reds sort of hedged their bets with safer picks immediately afterwards (Rainey and Trahan).
    "One person has a more positive outlook [about Dick Williams], and I would guess that was meant as a joke." RedsTeamGo

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

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    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: 2015 Draft - Best/Worst

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo View Post
    When you've got a pitching-rich system, why take on a project? And use the 2nd round to do it?
    Because this draft is terrible. If you can get elite velocity in round two of the draft where there's not a ton of talent, go for it.

    A dude went in the top 20 this season where scouts aren't even sold on his ability to stick at shortstop (though some are - but even then he's not viewed as a good defender) who is described as a singles hitter who may develop gap power. He was a 3-year college starter who hit two home runs in his college career. THAT GUY went in the Top 20 of the draft. And that is where he was projected to go, it wasn't a money saving pick.

    And that is why you take a project in the 2nd round in this draft. If your guy works out, freaking awesome. If not? Big deal. This draft was terrible beyond the first half of the first round.

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    Re: 2015 Draft - Best/Worst

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Because this draft is terrible. If you can get elite velocity in round two of the draft where there's not a ton of talent, go for it.
    Ok, get the thinking. I guess I'm not as enamored with elite velocity as you (and Buckley). I take a guy like this later rounds for sure. But I think I would've gone with a surer thing.
    The widow is gathering nettles for her children's dinner; a perfumed seigneur, delicately lounging in the Oeil de Boeuf, hath an alchemy whereby he will extract the third nettle and call it rent. ~ Carlyle

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    Someday Never Comes mth123's Avatar
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    Re: 2015 Draft - Best/Worst

    My two cents, they're all projects.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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    Re: 2015 Draft - Best/Worst

    Staking a claim to best/worst at this point is silly.

    A lot of folks hated the Blandino pick at this time last year. I don't hear anyone complaining about it today.

    Let these guys prove their mettle in the minors before labeling them one way or the other.

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    Winning the Human Race TheBigLebowski's Avatar
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    Re: 2015 Draft - Best/Worst

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Because this draft is terrible. If you can get elite velocity in round two of the draft where there's not a ton of talent, go for it.

    A dude went in the top 20 this season where scouts aren't even sold on his ability to stick at shortstop (though some are - but even then he's not viewed as a good defender) who is described as a singles hitter who may develop gap power. He was a 3-year college starter who hit two home runs in his college career. THAT GUY went in the Top 20 of the draft. And that is where he was projected to go, it wasn't a money saving pick.

    And that is why you take a project in the 2nd round in this draft. If your guy works out, freaking awesome. If not? Big deal. This draft was terrible beyond the first half of the first round.
    You're obviously referring to Richie Martin. But you're wrong in your assessment of him.

    No, he's not a power hitter but his bat is getting better by the year. And he is a very good OBP guy.

    But defensively, he is elite and most definitely will stick at SS. The guy makes jaw-dropping plays almost every game and his arm is plenty strong enough for the position.

    I don't disagree with your contention about the overall quality of the draft but don't use Richie Martin as your prima facie evidence to support the claim.
    I heard your record..it's alright.

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    Re: 2015 Draft - Best/Worst

    Doug is referencing Kevin Newman. Richie Martin had more HR, 5, this season than Newman, 2, had in his entire college career which likely includes the Cape Cod League.


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