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Thread: Jason Heyward signs with Cubs

  1. #31
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Jason Heyward signs with Cubs

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I assume the Cards will try for Gordon.

    The losers in the Hayward/Gordon races might have interest in Jay Bruce or Todd Frazier.
    Did someone say Gordon Hayward?

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  4. #32
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: Jason Heyward signs with Cubs

    I don't really understand why Heyward is worth nearly $200 million, but I doubt the Cubs really care, he is a solid player.

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  6. #33
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Jason Heyward signs with Cubs

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Considering their contracts, me too.
    With Heyward you are paying for nice OBP and stellar corner OF defense.

    With Fowler you are paying for nice OBP and meh CF defense.

    Fowler is older, doesn't quite have the name recognition they Heyward has, but will be much cheaper and probably about as valuable.

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  8. #34
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    Re: Jason Heyward signs with Cubs

    Will be interesting to see what Heyward's cost per year will be, but it is probably close to the 13 million of Edwin Jackson and the 10 million of Hammel that will come off the books after next season. I think the Cubs are fine with that trade off.

    I'm sure a trade or two is coming on their end. They have added 3 pretty significant pieces and not given up anyone yet. They have too many young position players to not trade at least one for another pitching asset.

  9. #35
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Jason Heyward signs with Cubs

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Just going to leave this here:

    Jay Bruce from ages 22-26 (through 2013): 118 OPS+
    Jason Heyward from ages 21-25 (through 2015): 111 OPS+

    Can you imagine the reaction if the Reds extended/signed Jay Bruce for $130M after 2013? Now imagine paying him $190M or so (rumors are Heyward got less than $200M - but it can't be MUCH less, can it?). Don't get me wrong, Jason Heyward is a good ballplayer, but his defense isn't THAT good to make up that kind of difference. Right?
    I feel icky trying to comp Jay Bruce and Jason Heyward.

    Did you purposely not use wRC+ because it didn't fit your argument as well?

  10. #36
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Jason Heyward signs with Cubs

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Just going to leave this here:

    Jay Bruce from ages 22-26 (through 2013): 118 OPS+
    Jason Heyward from ages 21-25 (through 2015): 111 OPS+

    Can you imagine the reaction if the Reds extended/signed Jay Bruce for $130M after 2013? Now imagine paying him $190M or so (rumors are Heyward got less than $200M - but it can't be MUCH less, can it?). Don't get me wrong, Jason Heyward is a good ballplayer, but his defense isn't THAT good to make up that kind of difference. Right?
    The cost of a win (WAR) has gone up by about 2 MM per since 2013.

    Heyward is younger. (In the example)
    Heyward is a better hitter.
    Heyward is a better defender.

    Not counting for inflation if you think Heyward is a 1 win better player than Bruce (ha) that is 56 MM worth of value over 7 years. 2 wins better, 112 MM more value.

    2015, Heyward was over 40 MM more valuable than Bruce...split hairs if you must.

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  12. #37
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Jason Heyward signs with Cubs

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    I feel icky trying to comp Jay Bruce and Jason Heyward.

    Did you purposely not use wRC+ because it didn't fit your argument as well?
    I didn't use wRC+ because it's not easily calculated simply by clicking on a set of five years at Fangraphs like OPS+ is at Baseball Reference.

    But, since you wanted to get into it, here we go:

    Bruce wRC+ from 22-26: 98, 124, 119, 120, 117
    Heyward wRC+ from 21-25: 96, 121, 120, 110, 121

    Overall, Bruce comes out ahead here too. Jay Bruce was a better offensive player in the two time spans. Is one year younger and that defense worth all of that extra money?

  13. #38
    malingered here too long malcontent's Avatar
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    Re: Jason Heyward signs with Cubs

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    Fowler is older, doesn't quite have the name recognition they Heyward has, but will be much cheaper and probably about as valuable.
    Cheap enough that the Reds might potentially express interest?
    Everything is perfect, but there is a lot of room for improvement. --- Shunryu Suzuki-roshi

  14. #39
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Jason Heyward signs with Cubs

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    The cost of a win (WAR) has gone up by about 2 MM per since 2013.

    Heyward is younger. (In the example)
    Heyward is a better hitter.
    Heyward is a better defender.

    Not counting for inflation if you think Heyward is a 1 win better player than Bruce (ha) that is 56 MM worth of value over 7 years. 2 wins better, 112 MM more value.
    I don't think that this version of Jason Heyward is a win better than that version of Jay Bruce. Sorry, but you can't convince me that Heyward is THAT kind of a defender. If he were, he'd have been manning center field his entire career instead of hanging out in the corners.

  15. #40
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    Re: Jason Heyward signs with Cubs

    Quote Originally Posted by scuba17 View Post
    Will be interesting to see what Heyward's cost per year will be, but it is probably close to the 13 million of Edwin Jackson and the 10 million of Hammel that will come off the books after next season. I think the Cubs are fine with that trade off.

    I'm sure a trade or two is coming on their end. They have added 3 pretty significant pieces and not given up anyone yet. They have too many young position players to not trade at least one for another pitching asset.
    8 years for 184 million. 23 million a year, exactly the cost of Hammel and Jackson.

  16. #41
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Jason Heyward signs with Cubs

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I didn't use wRC+ because it's not easily calculated simply by clicking on a set of five years at Fangraphs like OPS+ is at Baseball Reference.

    But, since you wanted to get into it, here we go:

    Bruce wRC+ from 22-26: 98, 124, 119, 120, 117
    Heyward wRC+ from 21-25: 96, 121, 120, 110, 121

    Overall, Bruce comes out ahead here too. Jay Bruce was a better offensive player in the two time spans. Is one year younger and that defense worth all of that extra money?
    Fair enough, over the time frames mentioned Bruce was 117 Heyward 114, with Heyward having the better overall "offensive" edge due to baserunning.

    Now. Comping 7 year deals from 2013 and 2015 includes 14 MM worth of inflation for the 2015 deal. So the question is, is Heyward worth 46 MM more than Bruce in 2013 dollars?

    Yes.

  17. #42
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Jason Heyward signs with Cubs

    http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/j...tionals-121115

    He's got perhaps the most well-rounded set of skills the free-agent market has ever seen. He's got a career wRC+ of 118, so he can hit, he's got some power as well as on-base ability, he's an excellent baserunner, and he's a superb fielder. There's really nothing that Heyward doesn't do well, and when you add his age into the equation that's when things get silly, financially speaking.
    Fair article. Goes against my thoughts but check it out. But the above quote is why I think it is silly to try to wrap this deal into a comparison with Jay Bruce somehow.

  18. #43
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Jason Heyward signs with Cubs

    Quote Originally Posted by malcontent View Post
    Cheap enough that the Reds might potentially express interest?
    I doubt the Reds are interested in Fowler, he costs a draft pick to sign, albeit a 2nd rounder in the Reds' case.
    Plus the budget is tight and they have said they prefer to add a veteran pitcher for the rotation.
    Would've been a nice add though, I agree.
    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  19. #44
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Jason Heyward signs with Cubs

    8 yr 184 MM

  20. #45
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Jason Heyward signs with Cubs

    Heyward's "value" will go poof if they play him in CF, where he'll do well to be average. He's a steady, complimentary player. He probably ought to be platooned. Hope the Cubs spent an enormous sum of money for him.
    Wait until the year after next year.

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