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Thread: Jason Heyward signs with Cubs

  1. #61
    Member 15fan's Avatar
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    Re: Jason Heyward signs with Cubs

    Good lord that's an insane amount of money for Jason Heyward who as mentioned above is a good complementary player, but will never put a team on his back and carry it.

    (Says the guy who has probably seen more of J Hey than any of you.)

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  4. #62
    Member Will M's Avatar
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    Re: Jason Heyward signs with Cubs

    Prediction: in a few years teams stop giving these opt out clauses after several guys still playing great opt out & several guys who get hurt don't opt out
    .

  5. #63
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Jason Heyward signs with Cubs

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    I don't double down on the accuracy of positional adjustments but if he is serviceable in CF that will shine up his WAR as far as offense is concerned, right?

    I just don't think "poof" is the proper measure here.
    True, WAR gives CFs a booster seat, though Heyward's outplayed it in RF. He'll won't be a horrible player, but if you drive his defensive value down to even you're left with a Nick Markakis bat. $23M strikes me as a wild overpay for that.
    Wait until the year after next year.

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  7. #64
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Jason Heyward signs with Cubs

    To those who think this is an overpay...

    If you are the Cubs or Cards (the team doesn't matter it could be any team with money to spend that could use him)and you were going after Heyward, what would you have offered?

  8. #65
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Jason Heyward signs with Cubs

    Quote Originally Posted by cincinnati chili View Post
    Interesting that he got a year to sample life in the Cardinal organization (which won 100+ games) but elected to go to a division rival offering him less guaranteed money. And, oh yeah, Joey Votto is a bargain.
    That struck me. Usually familiarity breeds a discount.

  9. #66
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    Re: Jason Heyward signs with Cubs

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    To those who think this is an overpay...

    If you are the Cubs or Cards (the team doesn't matter it could be any team with money to spend that could use him)and you were going after Heyward, what would you have offered?
    Good question:

    I like Heyward, but not for 8 years. His best skills are likely to decline significantly around age 30. I'd offer him around half of what he got. 4 years, $100M.
    The team Matheny described several times this weekend as the team he thinks the Cardinals could be, is actually the team the Reds have become.

  10. #67
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    Re: Jason Heyward signs with Cubs

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Let's get back to my point: If the REds offered Bruce $130M after 2013, people would have gone NUTS about how much of an overpay it was. So the fact that Heyward is now getting $56M MORE than that.....
    Yeah but now compare the ERA+ over the last 5 season for Greinke and Cueto and tell me that Greinke is not a huge overpay.

  11. #68
    post hype sleeper cincinnati chili's Avatar
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    Re: Jason Heyward signs with Cubs

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    To those who think this is an overpay...

    If you are the Cubs or Cards (the team doesn't matter it could be any team with money to spend that could use him)and you were going after Heyward, what would you have offered?
    I don't have access to medical records, and I know he's a pitcher, and I know he's older. But I'd rather have Greinke for 6 years, than Heyward for 8. You could afford Fowler AND Jordan Zimmermann for the price of Heyward. How about that?
    Mack Jenkins's Pants

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  13. #69
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Jason Heyward signs with Cubs

    Quote Originally Posted by cincinnati chili View Post
    I don't have access to medical records, and I know he's a pitcher, and I know he's older. But I'd rather have Greinke for 6 years, than Heyward for 8. You could afford Fowler AND Jordan Zimmermann for the price of Heyward. How about that?
    I will answer that if Fowler signs for less than 74 MM otherwise this question is null and void.

    (And Zimmerman is only signed for 5 years for 110 MM, not 8)

  14. #70
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Jason Heyward signs with Cubs

    Quote Originally Posted by klw View Post
    Yeah but now compare the ERA+ over the last 5 season for Greinke and Cueto and tell me that Greinke is not a huge overpay.
    Greinke has shown he can stay on the mound. For eight straight years. Johnny Cueto hasn't. That's got to play into things.

    Of course, I wouldn't touch a pitcher on the kind of deal that those guys signed/will sign.

  15. #71
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    Re: Jason Heyward signs with Cubs

    Jeff Passan ‏@JeffPassan 4h4 hours ago
    When history looks back and asks what St. Louis was like, I hope Twitter is around so people can see @BestFansStLouis. Today is ... wow.

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  17. #72
    Member 15fan's Avatar
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    Re: Jason Heyward signs with Cubs

    In 2015, Heyward put up a .797 OPS. That tied him with Charlie Blackmon of COL for the 47th highest OPS in MLB this past season.

    In 3005 career ABs, he still hasn't cracked 100 HRs (at 97) and that's after homering in his first MLB at bat, and 10 times during his first 50 games.

    He has 276 xbh in 3,429 PAs, which means he's good for an extra base hit every 12 PAs, or about twice per week.

    $184 million is absurd for that kind of non-production.

    He's sprinkles on an ice cream sundae. Good, but about 5th or 6th on the list of things you need to have a good sundae.

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  19. #73
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    Re: Jason Heyward signs with Cubs

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    To those who think this is an overpay...

    If you are the Cubs or Cards (the team doesn't matter it could be any team with money to spend that could use him)and you were going after Heyward, what would you have offered?
    He's a 6+ WAR player at 26, meaning most likely he's not even in his prime yet (but is just entering it). People think he'll never be better, like he's a 33 year old has been. I don't know what I would have offered, or for how long, but considering his age I don't think it's a bad signing at all.
    "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and [the St. Louis Cardinals]."--Benjamin Disraeli

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  21. #74
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Jason Heyward signs with Cubs

    Quote Originally Posted by 15fan View Post
    In 2015, Heyward put up a .797 OPS. That tied him with Charlie Blackmon of COL for the 47th highest OPS in MLB this past season.

    In 3005 career ABs, he still hasn't cracked 100 HRs (at 97) and that's after homering in his first MLB at bat, and 10 times during his first 50 games.

    He has 276 xbh in 3,429 PAs, which means he's good for an extra base hit every 12 PAs, or about twice per week.

    $184 million is absurd for that kind of non-production.

    He's sprinkles on an ice cream sundae. Good, but about 5th or 6th on the list of things you need to have a good sundae.
    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/tryin...n-free-agency/

    Look at the first table in this article and let me know about his production.

  22. #75
    Member Tom Servo's Avatar
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    Re: Jason Heyward signs with Cubs

    There's certainly upside remaining with Heyward, but you'd like to think that in 6 MLB seasons he would have had one that really blew your socks off. Even the guy who he reminds me of most, Jacoby Ellsbury, had one of those seasons.

    I just don't think he's shown himself to be a $180 million dollar player, for reasons 15fan touched on.
    I dont care, Votto said of passing his friend and former teammate. Hes in the past. Bye-bye, Jay.

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