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Thread: Astros.. I know it's early but..

  1. #1
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Astros.. I know it's early but..

    So last year, the Astros were heralded as a team that did things the "right way".. Those 6 years of being god awful finally paid off and they made a playoff appearance.

    This year, so far, only 12 wins (one less than the Reds). Now I know Gattis and McCullers have been hurt. Maybe I am missing another injury or two.
    But I doubt they've been injured as much as the Reds have been this year.

    So it's still early.. but suppose this year the Astros finish under 500.. Is that enough to call their process a failure?
    Because some people consider the Reds a failure in their 2010-2015 window, due to inablity to advance in the playoffs, despite making the playoffs 3 times.

    I am not saying the Astros will be this bad all season.. It just interesting how fickle Fate is.
    "One person has a more positive outlook [about Dick Williams], and I would guess that was meant as a joke." RedsTeamGo

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

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    Member Tom Servo's Avatar
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    Re: Astros.. I know it's early but..

    Right now the Carlos Gomez trade and Ken Giles trade are both looking like busts, though Giles certainly has time to turn it around. But they gave up A LOT of prospects (like Vincent Velasquez, pitching very well for Philadelphia) to get those guys, along with Mike Fiers, and haven't gotten much of anything in return in terms of performance.

    I think their process has still been a success, they still have young, affordable talent up the wazoo. They just blew it on some trades and didn't do much to fix a questionable rotation and are paying a price early in the year.

    And to be fair, while I do think Luhnow overdid it in some ways, you can't put 'six years of being god awful' on him. He was hired before the 2012 season and his tanking plan made them awful in 2012, 2013, and 2014. Just generally making poor decisions and being a poor team is what made them bad from 2009-2011.
    I dont care, Votto said of passing his friend and former teammate. Hes in the past. Bye-bye, Jay.

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    Re: Astros.. I know it's early but..

    What the Astros seem to reveal, is that tanking doesn't guarantee success in the future. You still have to make smart moves to build a contending team.
    The team Matheny described several times this weekend as the team he thinks the Cardinals could be, is actually the team the Reds have become.

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    Middle Class Rut TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Astros.. I know it's early but..

    What in God's name has happened to Ken Giles? He looked like a shut down closer in the making.
    "There was like a softness to it, a glow to it. I felt... I felt warm."

    -- Joseph Daniel Votto 7/10/2017

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    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Astros.. I know it's early but..

    a lot teams that make a GIANT surge have a bit of a fall back the next year (1971 Reds, 2011 Reds) Cubs went out and signed a bunch of guys and haven't followed that path. But no surprise on the Astros, they had everything fall in place like clockwork last year, this year it's not as smooth

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    Moderator cumberlandreds's Avatar
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    Re: Astros.. I know it's early but..

    Time to blow it up again. Obviously they are in another steep decline.
    Reds Fan Since 1971

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    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Astros.. I know it's early but..

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    a lot teams that make a GIANT surge have a bit of a fall back the next year (1971 Reds, 2011 Reds) Cubs went out and signed a bunch of guys and haven't followed that path. But no surprise on the Astros, they had everything fall in place like clockwork last year, this year it's not as smooth
    Their pitching came together awfully quick in 2015 and it's not all that shocking to see some of these guys struggling. Also doesn't help that some of the kids they expected by now - Jon Singleton, Colin Moran, Max Stassi - haven't, and may never, arrive. Classic case of a system that looked more loaded than what it really was.
    Wait until the year after next year.

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  15. #8
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Astros.. I know it's early but..

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Servo View Post
    Right now the Carlos Gomez trade and Ken Giles trade are both looking like busts, though Giles certainly has time to turn it around. But they gave up A LOT of prospects (like Vincent Velasquez, pitching very well for Philadelphia) to get those guys, along with Mike Fiers, and haven't gotten much of anything in return in terms of performance.

    I think their process has still been a success, they still have young, affordable talent up the wazoo. They just blew it on some trades and didn't do much to fix a questionable rotation and are paying a price early in the year.

    And to be fair, while I do think Luhnow overdid it in some ways, you can't put 'six years of being god awful' on him. He was hired before the 2012 season and his tanking plan made them awful in 2012, 2013, and 2014. Just generally making poor decisions and being a poor team is what made them bad from 2009-2011.
    I guess this is my question though.. I want to get away from assigning a percentage of blame to Luhnow.. The Houston fans had to endure about 6 horrible years to get the modest success of 2015. And 2015 was 88 wins , and I think it was just a wildcard. I remember people on RZ claiming that the Reds really didn't even make the playoffs in the year we made the wildcard and were eliminated by Pitt. You got to figure that on AstroZone, last season was also considered a failure, or at least not very satisfying.

    An argument could be made that the Reds also have young talent out the wazoo too, but that still makes this season painful to watch.
    Houston's youth means that they have a chance to be good later or maybe even this year, but it just shows how fragile this entire burndown/rebuild strategy is.
    Houston sure had a short "dynasty", considering all the pain they went through.. Although I am jumping the gun early.. they might bounce back and go to the playoffs this year.. But what a depressing start this must be to their long suffering fan base.

    My point is.. this will be an interesting case study to follow.. Maybe Houston bounces back and wins 3 division titles in this window.
    Maybe they are just mediocre..

    Personally, it makes me feel better about the Red's strategy of targeting guys that were near ML ready, and trying to make the painful period as short as possible.
    Although I am different than some fans.. To me, there's value in being a .500 club as opposed to fielding a 100 loss team. I can understand if others feel differently though.
    I don't want many more Reds seasons like 2016, and I have faith this will be rock bottom.
    "One person has a more positive outlook [about Dick Williams], and I would guess that was meant as a joke." RedsTeamGo

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

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    The Lineups stink. KronoRed's Avatar
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    Re: Astros.. I know it's early but..

    Too early to call the whole process a failure, they made the playoffs last year and they aren't planning to blow anything up if this year goes flat, can only really judge things in a few years time.
    Go Gators!

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    Re: Astros.. I know it's early but..

    They gave up the moon for Carlos Gomez and Ken Giles, and neither player is contributing at all at the moment.

    The Giles trade in particular stings me because that was similar to the package most of us wanted to see for Chapman. Of course Giles was signed for longer, but Chapman had a much better track record/better stuff (and thus look what's happened to Giles).
    Go BLUE!!!

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Astros.. I know it's early but..

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    What in God's name has happened to Ken Giles? He looked like a shut down closer in the making.
    It turns our relievers are volatile. Who knew?

    His velocity is down slightly, but that could be a typical early season thing. He had only thrown 115.2 IP in his major league career to date before this season. We wouldn't draw too many conclusions about a rookie starter who had a dominant 20 first starts and then 2 shaky ones. My money is on "probably just a small sample thing; he'll be fine."

    The slightly longer analysis, looking at peripherals suggests he's still got his stuff, he's just been getting killed on contact. His career HR/FB rate before this season was 3% -- this year it's 33%. Career BABIP was .294, this year it's .382. He's also had a ton of GB shift to being LDs. By contrast, his strikeout and walk rates, which both stabilize much, much more quickly than batted ball outcomes, are just a hair worse than last year and still very very good. The batted ball stuff could be random or it could be a sign of shaky control leading to too many hittable pitches. Even if it is the former, unless it's due to an injury, it's probably a mechanical thing he'll work out. While there could be a scouting story to tell here, the numbers would not have me overly concerned about him.

    That said, I think the Astros paid a ridiculous price to get him. I'd be fascinated to hear what analysis/logic when in to that decision.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Greene Man Wonderful Monds's Avatar
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    Re: Astros.. I know it's early but..

    I've never even heard of Ken Giles.

    MLB has passed me by, I think.
    Quote Originally Posted by reds44 View Post
    Ghosts, you gotta lay off the weaponized hallucinogens, my man.

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  25. #13
    Member Rojo Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Astros.. I know it's early but..

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    What in God's name has happened to Ken Giles? He looked like a shut down closer in the making.
    I think he's got Drew Storen syndrome. Lights out as a closer but take away that job and he crumbles.

  26. #14
    Member Rojo Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Astros.. I know it's early but..

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Servo View Post
    Right now the Carlos Gomez trade and Ken Giles trade are both looking like busts, though Giles certainly has time to turn it around. But they gave up A LOT of prospects (like Vincent Velasquez, pitching very well for Philadelphia) to get those guys, along with Mike Fiers, and haven't gotten much of anything in return in terms of performance.

    I think their process has still been a success, they still have young, affordable talent up the wazoo. They just blew it on some trades and didn't do much to fix a questionable rotation and are paying a price early in the year.

    And to be fair, while I do think Luhnow overdid it in some ways, you can't put 'six years of being god awful' on him. He was hired before the 2012 season and his tanking plan made them awful in 2012, 2013, and 2014. Just generally making poor decisions and being a poor team is what made them bad from 2009-2011.
    I didn't realize how much they gave up in those deals. Domingo and Brett Phillips for Gomez was bad, they're scouting department should've picked up on whatever the Mets did and as a Gomez FBB owner, I did as well (joking). He dropped off really badly from 2013 and 2014 last year and there really weren't any good excuses for it. The Giles deal is worse IMO. For a closer they gave up Velasquez and Appel. Not that I'm a believer in Appel to this point but he was the #1 pick in 2013, ahead of Kris Bryant.

    It's deals like those that tend to unnerve Reds fans when we trade away our guys for prospects and don't seem to get deals half as good, but I'm a believer in letting deals play out before I judge them. As an Orlando Magic fan everyone thought Orlando got hosed in the Dwight Howard deal, a few years later and it was actually the other three teams involved who ended up on the wrong side and Orlando made out like thieves. Maybe Chapman has more OTF trouble and Rookie Davis becomes a big time arm for us, maybe Jose Peraza is a .300+ leadoff bat for a good 6-8 years and Frazier never sniffs .250 again?

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    Thanks a lot, Bowie Kuhn Revering4Blue's Avatar
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    Re: Astros.. I know it's early but..

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    So last year, the Astros were heralded as a team that did things the "right way".. Those 6 years of being god awful finally paid off and they made a playoff appearance.

    This year, so far, only 12 wins (one less than the Reds). Now I know Gattis and McCullers have been hurt. Maybe I am missing another injury or two.
    But I doubt they've been injured as much as the Reds have been this year.

    So it's still early.. but suppose this year the Astros finish under 500.. Is that enough to call their process a failure?
    Because some people consider the Reds a failure in their 2010-2015 window, due to inablity to advance in the playoffs, despite making the playoffs 3 times.

    I am not saying the Astros will be this bad all season.. It just interesting how fickle Fate is.
    Can't call it a failure when they advanced in last year's Playoffs. And yes, I consider winning a wildcard playoff game advancing, FWIW.
    There are two types of people in this world:
    1)Morning people
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