Turn Off Ads?
Page 2 of 10 FirstFirst 123456 ... LastLast
Results 16 to 30 of 145

Thread: Astros.. I know it's early but..

  1. #16
    Member CRDB40's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2015
    Location
    Ohio
    Posts
    623

    Re: Astros.. I know it's early but..

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    So last year, the Astros were heralded as a team that did things the "right way".. Those 6 years of being god awful finally paid off and they made a playoff appearance.

    This year, so far, only 12 wins (one less than the Reds). Now I know Gattis and McCullers have been hurt. Maybe I am missing another injury or two.
    But I doubt they've been injured as much as the Reds have been this year.

    So it's still early.. but suppose this year the Astros finish under 500.. Is that enough to call their process a failure?
    Because some people consider the Reds a failure in their 2010-2015 window, due to inablity to advance in the playoffs, despite making the playoffs 3 times.

    I am not saying the Astros will be this bad all season.. It just interesting how fickle Fate is.
    I don't view their process as a failure. I think they encountered their issues when they went against their process. Luhnow made 2 terrible moves, that went against their philosophy and approach, to win "now" (last year). I believe that was their downfall - not their process.

  2. Likes:

    Revering4Blue (05-09-2016)

  3. Turn Off Ads?
  4. #17
    Member CRDB40's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2015
    Location
    Ohio
    Posts
    623

    Re: Astros.. I know it's early but..

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    What the Astros seem to reveal, is that tanking doesn't guarantee success in the future. You still have to make smart moves to build a contending team.
    Tanking or staying afloat while rebuilding - neither guarantee anything. It all stems from making the right moves with a plan in mind.

  5. Likes:

    757690 (05-09-2016),Revering4Blue (05-09-2016)

  6. #18
    Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Posts
    1,516

    Re: Astros.. I know it's early but..

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    It turns our relievers are volatile. Who knew?

    His velocity is down slightly, but that could be a typical early season thing. He had only thrown 115.2 IP in his major league career to date before this season. We wouldn't draw too many conclusions about a rookie starter who had a dominant 20 first starts and then 2 shaky ones. My money is on "probably just a small sample thing; he'll be fine."

    The slightly longer analysis, looking at peripherals suggests he's still got his stuff, he's just been getting killed on contact. His career HR/FB rate before this season was 3% -- this year it's 33%. Career BABIP was .294, this year it's .382. He's also had a ton of GB shift to being LDs. By contrast, his strikeout and walk rates, which both stabilize much, much more quickly than batted ball outcomes, are just a hair worse than last year and still very very good. The batted ball stuff could be random or it could be a sign of shaky control leading to too many hittable pitches. Even if it is the former, unless it's due to an injury, it's probably a mechanical thing he'll work out. While there could be a scouting story to tell here, the numbers would not have me overly concerned about him.

    That said, I think the Astros paid a ridiculous price to get him. I'd be fascinated to hear what analysis/logic when in to that decision.
    Giles seems like a reasonable bet to bounce back but I never understood the impetus to make the trade, given that Velasquez seemed like a perfectly reasonable option to fill the Giles role in the pen and going that route would have kept their prospect warchest relatively intact. I get that their bullpen's melt down against KC stung, but I'd have expected such an analytically oriented front office to be able to avoid making such a knee-jerk reaction.

  7. #19
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    47,922

    Re: Astros.. I know it's early but..

    Quote Originally Posted by nmculbreth View Post
    Giles seems like a reasonable bet to bounce back but I never understood the impetus to make the trade, given that Velasquez seemed like a perfectly reasonable option to fill the Giles role in the pen and going that route would have kept their prospect warchest relatively intact. I get that their bullpen's melt down against KC stung, but I'd have expected such an analytically oriented front office to be able to avoid making such a knee-jerk reaction.
    Everyone has a boss. Maybe the owner said go get me a big time reliever.

  8. #20
    Thanks a lot, Bowie Kuhn Revering4Blue's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2003
    Location
    Fort Wayne, IN
    Posts
    1,910

    Re: Astros.. I know it's early but..

    Quote Originally Posted by CRDB40 View Post
    I don't view their process as a failure. I think they encountered their issues when they went against their process. Luhnow made 2 terrible moves, that went against their philosophy and approach, to win "now" (last year). I believe that was their downfall - not their process.
    It's been in no way a failure.

    Their philosophy during the rebuilding was exactly as it should be -- to acquire and develop enough cost-controlled organizational talent and depth. They've succeeded, for the most part. The problem, as others have pointed out, is that Luhnow likely overpaid, which may well hurt in the short run.

    But in Luhnow's defense, sometimes the year picks you, so to speak, and it was, IMO, entirely justified to go for it.
    There are two types of people in this world:
    1)Morning people
    2)Normal people

  9. #21
    Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Posts
    1,516

    Re: Astros.. I know it's early but..

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Everyone has a boss. Maybe the owner said go get me a big time reliever.
    Perhaps, but if this was an owner-driven move I'd have expected them to target a "proven closer" rather than betting on the come for someone like Giles.

  10. Likes:

    REDREAD (05-10-2016)

  11. #22
    Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2002
    Location
    Calgary, Alberta, aka, the most prosperous city in the world.
    Posts
    11,969

    Re: Astros.. I know it's early but..

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post


    The Giles trade in particular stings me because that was similar to the package most of us wanted to see for Chapman. Of course Giles was signed for longer, but Chapman had a much better track record/better stuff (and thus look what's happened to Giles).
    At the time of the trade, Giles had 5 more years of team control, vs. 1 for Chapman.

    It explains why Giles' trade value is not even close to being comparable.

    He'll be fine. His K rate remains excellent, he has a 3.21 xFIP with a .382 BABIP and a 33.3% HR/FB rate.

  12. #23
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Houston, Texas
    Posts
    11,563

    Re: Astros.. I know it's early but..

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    So last year, the Astros were heralded as a team that did things the "right way".. Those 6 years of being god awful finally paid off and they made a playoff appearance.

    This year, so far, only 12 wins (one less than the Reds). Now I know Gattis and McCullers have been hurt. Maybe I am missing another injury or two.
    But I doubt they've been injured as much as the Reds have been this year.

    So it's still early.. but suppose this year the Astros finish under 500.. Is that enough to call their process a failure?
    Because some people consider the Reds a failure in their 2010-2015 window, due to inablity to advance in the playoffs, despite making the playoffs 3 times.

    I am not saying the Astros will be this bad all season.. It just interesting how fickle Fate is.
    I love the way they built their farm system from the absolute dregs to one of the top systems. But that being said, last year they overachieved IMO. The all-or-nothing approach of their hitters seemed to work last year, but this year is more like what many expected. HR's or strikeouts. Their pitching staff isn't anything to be bowled over about either. I liked most of the trades they made, but they clearly made one too many. The Ken Giles trade was too much of an overpay IMO. They're feeling that pitching shortcoming this season.

  13. Likes:

    REDREAD (05-10-2016)

  14. #24
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Houston, Texas
    Posts
    11,563

    Re: Astros.. I know it's early but..

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    What the Astros seem to reveal, is that tanking doesn't guarantee success in the future. You still have to make smart moves to build a contending team.
    I think they really did have to do what they did. Not only was the MLB club really bad and really old...but they had arguably the worst farm system in the majors as well. Overall, they did well. Probably not as well as they showed last year, but they overall did a fine job of remaking the entire franchise.

    All of that being said...the Reds were NOT in as bad a situation as Houston was. Our farm system wasn't barren and we did have some legitimate MLB talent on the big league club.
    Last edited by _Sir_Charles_; 05-09-2016 at 08:47 PM.

  15. Likes:

    REDREAD (05-10-2016)

  16. #25
    Member corkedbat's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2001
    Location
    Lexington
    Posts
    10,108

    Re: Astros.. I know it's early but..

    Ahhh...I think the 'Stos just haven't veteran'd up enough! Let's help'em out and send'em Votto, Cozart & Hoover for Carlos Correa, AJ Reed, Colin Moran & Kyle Tucker.

  17. Likes:

    REDREAD (05-10-2016)

  18. #26
    Member 757690's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Dayton
    Posts
    21,288

    Re: Astros.. I know it's early but..

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    At the time of the trade, Giles had 5 more years of team control, vs. 1 for Chapman.

    It explains why Giles' trade value is not even close to being comparable.

    He'll be fine. His K rate remains excellent, he has a 3.21 xFIP with a .382 BABIP and a 33.3% HR/FB rate.
    Considering how volatile closers are, extra years of control may not be that valuable.
    Quote Originally Posted by Tony Cloninger View Post
    This team is like watching Zero Hour and thinking you are watching Airplane and waiting for the funny.

  19. #27
    "So Fla Red"
    Join Date
    Apr 2001
    Location
    South Florida - The Real Humidor
    Posts
    5,193

    Re: Astros.. I know it's early but..

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    I've never even heard of Ken Giles.

    MLB has passed me by, I think.
    You don't remember the K Giles Band? AbraCabrera and Angel in the Center Field (Mike Trout Tribute Song, I think)...

  20. Likes:

    Revering4Blue (05-10-2016),westofyou (05-10-2016)

  21. #28
    breath westofyou's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2000
    Location
    PDX
    Posts
    48,291

    Re: Astros.. I know it's early but..

    K Giles Wamba Jamba live shows are something


    No Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  22. Likes:

    Revering4Blue (05-10-2016)

  23. #29
    Stat geek...and proud
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    New Paris, OH
    Posts
    3,176

    Re: Astros.. I know it's early but..

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    a lot teams that make a GIANT surge have a bit of a fall back the next year (1971 Reds, 2011 Reds) Cubs went out and signed a bunch of guys and haven't followed that path. But no surprise on the Astros, they had everything fall in place like clockwork last year, this year it's not as smooth
    Plexiglass Principle.

  24. #30
    Stat geek...and proud
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    New Paris, OH
    Posts
    3,176

    Re: Astros.. I know it's early but..

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    It turns our relievers are volatile. Who knew?

    His velocity is down slightly, but that could be a typical early season thing. He had only thrown 115.2 IP in his major league career to date before this season. We wouldn't draw too many conclusions about a rookie starter who had a dominant 20 first starts and then 2 shaky ones. My money is on "probably just a small sample thing; he'll be fine."

    The slightly longer analysis, looking at peripherals suggests he's still got his stuff, he's just been getting killed on contact. His career HR/FB rate before this season was 3% -- this year it's 33%. Career BABIP was .294, this year it's .382. He's also had a ton of GB shift to being LDs. By contrast, his strikeout and walk rates, which both stabilize much, much more quickly than batted ball outcomes, are just a hair worse than last year and still very very good. The batted ball stuff could be random or it could be a sign of shaky control leading to too many hittable pitches. Even if it is the former, unless it's due to an injury, it's probably a mechanical thing he'll work out. While there could be a scouting story to tell here, the numbers would not have me overly concerned about him.

    That said, I think the Astros paid a ridiculous price to get him. I'd be fascinated to hear what analysis/logic when in to that decision.
    I think Giles will be fine. His xFIP is exactly what it was last season, FWIW. He's gotten killed with the home runs and a very low LOB rate. SIERA and kwERA look fine too. (As well as DRA if you're into that) This smells of an "it's way too early to say much" situation. It's been 12 innings.

    I still wouldn't have traded Velasquez for him.

    I'd be more worried about Keuchel.
    Last edited by gilpdawg; 05-10-2016 at 10:10 AM.


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | cumberlandreds | Gallen5862 | JaxRed | Plus Plus | Powel Crosley | RedlegJake | RedsfaninMT | The Operator