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Thread: Astros.. I know it's early but..

  1. #31
    Member membengal's Avatar
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    Re: Astros.. I know it's early but..

    They get McCullers back this weekend it looks like. Keuchel will be better, and McHugh should be. I thought the trade for Giles ill-advised, but I don't think anyone is running away with the AL West and Houston has oodles of time to be plenty relevant in 2016 - and Correa is OPSing .868 and feels like he has been slumping. If I had to bet an amount of money that mattered to me, I would still put it on Houston to win that division.
    Last edited by membengal; 05-10-2016 at 10:21 AM.

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  3. #32
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    Re: Astros.. I know it's early but..

    Quote Originally Posted by membengal View Post
    They get McCullers back this weekend it looks like. Keuchel will be better, and McHugh should be. I thought the trade for Giles ill-advised, but I don't think anyone is running away with the AL West and Houston has oodles of time to be plenty relevant in 2016 - and Correa is OPSing .868 and feels like he has been slumping. If I had to bet an amount of money that mattered to me, I would still put it on Houston to win that division.
    I really like Seattle, they basically re-made their offense in one off season, but Felix doesn't look right, and that scares me a bit.

  4. #33
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Astros.. I know it's early but..

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo Rijo View Post
    I didn't realize how much they gave up in those deals. Domingo and Brett Phillips for Gomez was bad, they're scouting department should've picked up on whatever the Mets did and as a Gomez FBB owner, I did as well (joking). He dropped off really badly from 2013 and 2014 last year and there really weren't any good excuses for it. The Giles deal is worse IMO. For a closer they gave up Velasquez and Appel. Not that I'm a believer in Appel to this point but he was the #1 pick in 2013, ahead of Kris Bryant.

    It's deals like those that tend to unnerve Reds fans when we trade away our guys for prospects and don't seem to get deals half as good, but I'm a believer in letting deals play out before I judge them. As an Orlando Magic fan everyone thought Orlando got hosed in the Dwight Howard deal, a few years later and it was actually the other three teams involved who ended up on the wrong side and Orlando made out like thieves. Maybe Chapman has more OTF trouble and Rookie Davis becomes a big time arm for us, maybe Jose Peraza is a .300+ leadoff bat for a good 6-8 years and Frazier never sniffs .250 again?
    I am not attacking nor defending Houston in this post.
    Just want to point out that what Houston did is very consistent with the whole World Series or tank theory that is popular in some circles.
    Houston burnt it to the ground, collected young talent, and then when they were a contender, they unloaded prospects for established players to try to put them over the top, cost be darned.
    They were basically a less effective implementation of what the A's do when they are in contention.
    So, IMO.. what you said further supports that MAYBE that philosophy is flawed. The team builds for 4-6 years to become a contender, then their entire fate hinges on winning 3 trades.. seems like a very high risk strategy. Again, I am just trying to reflect on the process which was lauded as genius as early as a year ago.. Houston probably still has some winning left in this core.. but this year looks like a lost season.
    "One person has a more positive outlook [about Dick Williams], and I would guess that was meant as a joke." RedsTeamGo

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  5. #34
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Astros.. I know it's early but..

    Quote Originally Posted by CRDB40 View Post
    I don't view their process as a failure. I think they encountered their issues when they went against their process. Luhnow made 2 terrible moves, that went against their philosophy and approach, to win "now" (last year). I believe that was their downfall - not their process.
    IMO, those trades were part of their process.
    I guess the alternative would be to never make a trade to reinforce your young contending team, unless it's lopsided in your favor or a value proposition.
    Not to be harsh, but that's kind of what Cleveland has been doing when they are close, and it really hasn't worked for them either.
    They could've had Frazier (or another quality bat) and yet they settled for Napoli. Point is, even if you give the Indians credit for predicting Frazier would regress, they could've still gotten a better bat than Napoli.

    I think Houston needs to be judged for what they do.. that is their process. Part of their process was making two risky trades. That should count against them.
    "One person has a more positive outlook [about Dick Williams], and I would guess that was meant as a joke." RedsTeamGo

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  6. #35
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: Astros.. I know it's early but..

    I know Velazquez is doing great, but lets not forget they also included #1 pick Mark Appel. His last outing (AAA) was rough, but otherwise he's looked quite good this year. He was #1 for a reason.

  7. #36
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    Re: Astros.. I know it's early but..

    Still recovering from that disastrous 8th inning last October...

  8. #37
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    Re: Astros.. I know it's early but..

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    IMO, those trades were part of their process.
    I guess the alternative would be to never make a trade to reinforce your young contending team, unless it's lopsided in your favor or a value proposition.
    Not to be harsh, but that's kind of what Cleveland has been doing when they are close, and it really hasn't worked for them either.
    They could've had Frazier (or another quality bat) and yet they settled for Napoli. Point is, even if you give the Indians credit for predicting Frazier would regress, they could've still gotten a better bat than Napoli.

    I think Houston needs to be judged for what they do.. that is their process. Part of their process was making two risky trades. That should count against them.
    That's one view of it; I understand that perspective.

    I personally don't believe that was part of their process/plan prior to the season. Luhnow was part of the Cardinals' brain trust for many years - an integral piece of that collaborative operation. I wouldn't expect two drastic moves like that from the Cardinals. So, I guess I'm building assumption in here, but I don't believe part of Luhnow and his circle's plan/process in Houston, prior to that season developing, was, "If we are in it, we are going to make some trades and go for it". I truly believe Luhnow got caught up in the moment/the team's winning, and abandoned their long-term plan to sustain the immediate results.

    I really believe they would have waited until this season to implement the acquisition stage of their building process, if they were successful this season. I think this is the year that actually expected to compete. If you think about it, they could have expected to get contributions from a rotation of Keuchel, McHugh, McCullers, and maybe Velasquez/Appel or vets like Fister, etc. at the back end. Instead of Gomez and White at first base, they would have allowed Santana a season in CF, and kept Carter at 1B. And they would have made more calculated moves to improve their roster as the season progressed.

    I also believe that Gomez and Giles, while both struggling now, were looked at as assets that could be dealt again, if needed, this season to restock the system. With their struggles, that's extremely unlikely now, but if they were having modest to good seasons so far, it wouldn't be out of the question.

    Now, maybe they will turn it around and we are looking at this season differently, and those moves differently, than we are now. As it stands now, those trades absolutely stand against them. I agree. But I don't view them as true representations of their plan or process. I think the jury is still out on that. If they prove to be outlier moves and the Astros begin to win consistently, we will know the answer. We'll also know the answer if they stand pat or make additional, similar moves, and regress to a non-contending team on a regular basis.

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  10. #38
    Member CRDB40's Avatar
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    Re: Astros.. I know it's early but..

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    I know Velazquez is doing great, but lets not forget they also included #1 pick Mark Appel. His last outing (AAA) was rough, but otherwise he's looked quite good this year. He was #1 for a reason.
    He could definitely still turn out to be a quality MoR or BoR rotation arm - a good stuff, 200 IP late rotation arm would still have value, especially for Philly. They don't have to shoulder the burden of the No. 1 pick status - if they get production out of him in their rotation, it's only another valuable piece they got from that trade.

  11. #39
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: Astros.. I know it's early but..

    Trust the process

  12. #40
    Overton Window Breaker WrongVerb's Avatar
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    Re: Astros.. I know it's early but..

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    Trust the process
    The process includes some savvy veteran additions via FA and trade. Any inkling from the Reds that they're going to follow that path?
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there always has been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that “my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge." -- Isaac Asimov

  13. #41
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: Astros.. I know it's early but..

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    What the Astros seem to reveal, is that tanking doesn't guarantee success in the future. You still have to make smart moves to build a contending team.
    Trust.

    The.

    Process.
    What would you say.....ya do here?

  14. #42
    Member kpresidente's Avatar
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    Re: Astros.. I know it's early but..

    The process...

    The Reds would have had essentially the same team today had they never rebuilt.

    No Schebler, so we'd have 2 corner OFs instead of the extra one. Peraza, Davis, etc, etc, etc are all roster filler.

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  16. #43
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: Astros.. I know it's early but..

    Quote Originally Posted by kpresidente View Post
    The process...

    The Reds would have had essentially the same team today had they never rebuilt.

    No Schebler, so we'd have 2 corner OFs instead of the extra one. Peraza, Davis, etc, etc, etc are all roster filler.
    They wouldn’t have Senzel, Tramm, Greene either

    The Astros were built through the draft
    What would you say.....ya do here?

  17. #44
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: Astros.. I know it's early but..

    Making trades for vets, when the time comes, is way easier when you have actual prospects to trade.

  18. #45
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: Astros.. I know it's early but..

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    Making trades for vets, when the time comes, is way easier when you have actual prospects to trade.
    It’s how the Astros were able to trade for Justin Verlander.
    What would you say.....ya do here?

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