Turn Off Ads?
Page 5 of 64 FirstFirst 1234567891555 ... LastLast
Results 61 to 75 of 958

Thread: Nick Senzel

  1. #61
    Titanic Struggles Caveat Emperor's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    The 513
    Posts
    13,422

    Re: Nick Senzel

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Yet Senzel was drafted largely on the notion that he is an exception to the rule.
    At #2 overall, he really should be.
    Cincinnati Here We Go.
    26 Years and Counting...

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #62
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2000
    Location
    Boston
    Posts
    35,965

    Re: Nick Senzel

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    Again, the first college bat taken each year (since 2000) has proven to be not only a low floor (one true "bust" among them) but relatively high ceilinged as well.
    It's a bit of a mixed bag.

    Got more than one bust in there: Joe Borchard (-1.5 WAR), Drew Meyer (-0.3), Christian Colon (1.4), Mike Zunino (0.1). That's a 25% bust rate.

    Then there's three guys who were also pretty disappointing players: Rickie Weeks (11.5), Pedro Alvarez (4.9), Dustin Ackley (8.1). I'd argue these three are even bigger flops than the four outright flops as all three were #2 picks and delivered very little.

    There's another three who have been solid, but unspectacular: Stephen Drew (16.1), Matt Wieters (15.2), Anthony Rendon (8.5). Rendon's young enough that maybe he has some big years in front of him.

    There's two for whom it's too early to tell: Kyle Schwarber (1.1), Dansby Swanson. Schwarber's got a sweet bat, but he might give away a lot of value with his glove like Weeks and Alvarez. Swanson could be a star, but he's yet to tear it up in the high minors let alone the majors.

    Then there's four really good players: Mark Teixeira (51.8), Alex Gordon (31.8), Evan Longoria (44.4), Kris Bryant (8.2). Yet that's only 25%. Bryant may turn out to be the best of the lot, someone who actually wins an MVP. Teix finished 2nd for the MVP in 2009 and Longoria has two 6th place finishes. This is where we'd like Senzel to get to, but it's not exactly an awesome collection of players.

    So it's not exactly a guarantee of success, but the Reds have taken Senzel with an eye toward him being a fast-mover and we should assume they'll give him the opportunity to do that.
    Last edited by M2; 06-10-2016 at 11:47 PM.
    Wait until the year after next year.

  4. Likes:

    REDREAD (06-12-2016)

  5. #63
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2003
    Location
    Shelburne Falls, MA
    Posts
    11,838

    Re: Nick Senzel

    I expect Senzel to start in Billings and then get a taste of Dayton or Daytona later in the year. Similar to how they moved Blandino and Trahan. Personally, I like that approach. Get him out there far from home with a short season club on which everybody is starting fresh. Mix in with guys he was drafted with -- we already know Okey will be there. Hitters league, so chances are good he'd have some immediate success to feel good about. Then, later in the year, provided he does OK, give him the challenge of a higher league, preferably one that's playing for/in the postseason.

    First year in the pros, coming off a long college season and the draft, this year is a bit of a different animal.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  6. Likes:

    REDREAD (06-12-2016)

  7. #64
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Posts
    4,053

    Re: Nick Senzel

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    I expect Senzel to start in Billings and then get a taste of Dayton or Daytona later in the year. Similar to how they moved Blandino and Trahan. Personally, I like that approach. Get him out there far from home with a short season club on which everybody is starting fresh. Mix in with guys he was drafted with -- we already know Okey will be there. Hitters league, so chances are good he'd have some immediate success to feel good about. Then, later in the year, provided he does OK, give him the challenge of a higher league, preferably one that's playing for/in the postseason.

    First year in the pros, coming off a long college season and the draft, this year is a bit of a different animal.
    I hate it. For as advanced as Senzel is, he needs to be challenged.

  8. Likes:

    Cooper (06-15-2016),Edd Roush (06-11-2016)

  9. #65
    Someday Never Comes mth123's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Posts
    21,238

    Re: Nick Senzel

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    I expect Senzel to start in Billings and then get a taste of Dayton or Daytona later in the year. Similar to how they moved Blandino and Trahan. Personally, I like that approach. Get him out there far from home with a short season club on which everybody is starting fresh. Mix in with guys he was drafted with -- we already know Okey will be there. Hitters league, so chances are good he'd have some immediate success to feel good about. Then, later in the year, provided he does OK, give him the challenge of a higher league, preferably one that's playing for/in the postseason.

    First year in the pros, coming off a long college season and the draft, this year is a bit of a different animal.
    This would work, but unless he is completely gassed or overmatched, I'd make sure he ends in Daytona and becomes eligible for the Arizona Fall League and I'd send him there. Then I'd look to start him out in AA next Spring unless he just shows he can't. Basically a 2017 slot in AA should be Senzel's to lose IMO.

    The Reds drafted him because the organization is weak and they are looking for a quick trip to the big leagues. If it's too much for him, they can always slow down. He's not a pitcher. No innings worries or anything like that. He'd get a non-roster invite to the Reds Spring camp as well.
    Last edited by mth123; 06-11-2016 at 09:26 AM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

  10. Likes:

    Benihana (06-11-2016)

  11. #66
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2003
    Location
    Shelburne Falls, MA
    Posts
    11,838

    Re: Nick Senzel

    I hate it. For as advanced as Senzel is, he needs to be challenged.
    Plenty of challenges lying ahead. And as my post said, I think he will be challenged in Dayton or Daytona this year.

    In the end, I don't think there's anything remotely make-or-break about his opening assignment.

    What could really hurt him is the notion that he's a savior and can't get to Cincy fast enough.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  12. #67
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Posts
    4,053

    Re: Nick Senzel

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    It's a bit of a mixed bag.

    Got more than one bust in there: Joe Borchard (-1.5 WAR), Drew Meyer (-0.3), Christian Colon (1.4), Mike Zunino (0.1). That's a 25% bust rate.

    Then there's three guys who were also pretty disappointing players: Rickie Weeks (11.5), Pedro Alvarez (4.9), Dustin Ackley (8.1). I'd argue these three are even bigger flops than the four outright flops as all three were #2 picks and delivered very little.

    There's another three who have been solid, but unspectacular: Stephen Drew (16.1), Matt Wieters (15.2), Anthony Rendon (8.5). Rendon's young enough that maybe he has some big years in front of him.

    There's two for whom it's too early to tell: Kyle Schwarber (1.1), Dansby Swanson. Schwarber's got a sweet bat, but he might give away a lot of value with his glove like Weeks and Alvarez. Swanson could be a star, but he's yet to tear it up in the high minors let alone the majors.

    Then there's four really good players: Mark Teixeira (51.8), Alex Gordon (31.8), Evan Longoria (44.4), Kris Bryant (8.2). Yet that's only 25%. Bryant may turn out to be the best of the lot, someone who actually wins an MVP. Teix finished 2nd for the MVP in 2009 and Longoria has two 6th place finishes. This is where we'd like Senzel to get to, but it's not exactly an awesome collection of players.

    So it's not exactly a guarantee of success, but the Reds have taken Senzel with an eye toward him being a fast-mover and we should assume they'll give him the opportunity to do that.
    Harper was the first college player taken the year you reference Colon. He's pretty good. But we've had this conversation before.

    If Senzel's bat is 20% above league average (as Weeks was early in Milwaukee), I'll be fine with him. And if he can avoid catastrophic injuries. You take out the four that suffered those injuries after promising starts to their career (Weeks, Wieters, Rendon, and Drew), and the percentages of quality hitter go way up.

    Three utter failures.
    One disappointment.
    Three hurt.
    Three unknown but looking really good so far.
    Five multiple All-Stars.

    It's certainly a better track record than the first HS bat taken in each round.

  13. #68
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Posts
    4,053

    Re: Nick Senzel

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Plenty of challenges lying ahead. And as my post said, I think he will be challenged in Dayton or Daytona this year.

    In the end, I don't think there's anything remotely make-or-break about his opening assignment.

    What could really hurt him is the notion that he's a savior and can't get to Cincy fast enough.
    Dayton should not be a challenge.

    Look at previous first-year college hitters for reference. Almost all went to Advanced A. And hit well.

    If he doesn't hit well in Daytona, he can stay there for the beginning of next season.

  14. #69
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2003
    Location
    Shelburne Falls, MA
    Posts
    11,838

    Re: Nick Senzel

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    Dayton should not be a challenge.

    Look at previous first-year college hitters for reference. Almost all went to Advanced A. And hit well.

    If he doesn't hit well in Daytona, he can stay there for the beginning of next season.
    OK, did a quick search on AJ Reed. After signing he went NY-Penn (equivalent of Billings) for half the season, Quad Cities (MIdwest League, like Dayton) for half a season.

    So, he's the outlier? I think I need to be convinced -- apparently the examples are numerous, so go ahead and throw a few out.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  15. #70
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2013
    Location
    Cleveland, OH
    Posts
    10,542

    Re: Nick Senzel

    It's a joke if Senzel goes to Billings. Straight up fan service (for like 183 people, I guess?)

    The Reds need to start acting like a big boy organization.

  16. Likes:

    Cooper (06-15-2016)

  17. #71
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    47,925

    Re: Nick Senzel

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    It's a joke if Senzel goes to Billings. Straight up fan service (for like 183 people, I guess?)

    The Reds need to start acting like a big boy organization.
    Billings does much better than 183 people. They average nearly 3000 a game.

  18. #72
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2013
    Location
    Cleveland, OH
    Posts
    10,542

    Re: Nick Senzel

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Billings does much better than 183 people. They average nearly 3000 a game.
    Whoa! Well, in that case....

  19. #73
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2003
    Location
    Shelburne Falls, MA
    Posts
    11,838

    Re: Nick Senzel

    Kyle Schwarber's opening assignment -- short season ball. He went 12 for 20 with 4 homers, so they moved him to low A. After 100 ABs of crushing it there, he went to high A.

    Again, there's no shame in Senzel starting in Billings.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  20. #74
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    47,925

    Re: Nick Senzel

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    Whoa! Well, in that case....
    I don't think they need to send him there at all, but if you're going to start saying things - it takes ten seconds to fact check.

  21. #75
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2013
    Location
    Cleveland, OH
    Posts
    10,542

    Re: Nick Senzel

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I don't think they need to send him there at all, but if you're going to start saying things - it takes ten seconds to fact check.
    Fact check? I'll be sure to fact check all my obvious jokes and sarcastic comments from now on. Although, out of the 3000 it may only be 183 that would care about seeing Senzel play, the other 2,817 prob have no idea who he is or care about who is playing.
    Last edited by RedTeamGo!; 06-11-2016 at 10:27 AM.


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | cumberlandreds | Gallen5862 | JaxRed | Plus Plus | Powel Crosley | RedlegJake | RedsfaninMT | The Operator