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Thread: StatCast Play of the Year...

  1. #1
    Member texasdave's Avatar
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    StatCast Play of the Year...

    ...courtesy Divin' and Slidin' Billy Hamilton:

    http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/7395516...ay-of-the-year

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    BillDoran (11-20-2016)

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  4. #2
    Haunted by walks
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    Re: StatCast Play of the Year...

    Awesome.

  5. #3
    Beautiful Loser mth123's Avatar
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    Re: StatCast Play of the Year...

    Watching Billy Hamilton play CF has easily been the most enjoyable thing about these last two miserable seasons. That was just one of about 15 plays he made that I could easily see ranking near the top of this list. Even more impressive is all those dinkers he takes away that seem like routine plays. Best defensive CF I can recall in Cincy and that is a high bar to contend with. Cesar Geronimo and Eric Davis were top notch.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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  7. #4
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    Re: StatCast Play of the Year...

    Buy out his arbitration years plus one, now! Of the young core he will hit free agency soonest, 2020. Injury due to his all out style of play is the greatest risk.

  8. #5
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: StatCast Play of the Year...

    Quote Originally Posted by RED VAN HOT View Post
    Buy out his arbitration years plus one, now! Of the young core he will hit free agency soonest, 2020. Injury due to his all out style of play is the greatest risk.
    The thing is, with the way arbitration works (specifically the stats is uses), Hamilton is going to be pretty cheap throughout his arbitration year relative to his actual value. Arbitration doesn't really pay for defense and doesn't pay much for speed. So there's very little for the Reds to gain by buy out his arb years. And to your point, his style of play increases his injury risk, which makes it less desirable to lock him into extra years.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  10. #6
    Member Ironman92's Avatar
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    Re: StatCast Play of the Year...

    Not many other plays even close...many of the ones that were, were also Billy.

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    mth123 (11-20-2016),Old school 1983 (11-20-2016)

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    Re: StatCast Play of the Year...

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    The thing is, with the way arbitration works (specifically the stats is uses), Hamilton is going to be pretty cheap throughout his arbitration year relative to his actual value. Arbitration doesn't really pay for defense and doesn't pay much for speed. So there's very little for the Reds to gain by buy out his arb years. And to your point, his style of play increases his injury risk, which makes it less desirable to lock him into extra years.
    I agree that defense is a market inefficiency. I can take the other side and argue that from Hamilton's (agent) viewpoint, a buyout at slightly more than relatively low arbitration rates would be attractive. The player is hedging the risk that an injury would end his career prematurely while postponing a potentially big FA payday by only one year. The Reds would be taking on that risk in return for the extra year after arbitration at what they believe would be below market value. That would allow plenty of time for the development of Friedl, Trammell, Beltre, and anyone else they may draft in the next two years. Further, if his replacement matures more quickly, Billy would become a great trading chip. Somewhere within that space there should be room for negotiation.

  13. #8
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: StatCast Play of the Year...

    Quote Originally Posted by RED VAN HOT View Post
    I agree that defense is a market inefficiency. I can take the other side and argue that from Hamilton's (agent) viewpoint, a buyout at slightly more than relatively low arbitration rates would be attractive. The player is hedging the risk that an injury would end his career prematurely while postponing a potentially big FA payday by only one year. The Reds would be taking on that risk in return for the extra year after arbitration at what they believe would be below market value. That would allow plenty of time for the development of Friedl, Trammell, Beltre, and anyone else they may draft in the next two years. Further, if his replacement matures more quickly, Billy would become a great trading chip. Somewhere within that space there should be room for negotiation.
    I'm not sure defense is a market inefficiency (see Heyward, Jason). It, however, is something arbitration doesn't seem to pay for. Free agents, however, do get paid for it.

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    Re: StatCast Play of the Year...

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I'm not sure defense is a market inefficiency (see Heyward, Jason). It, however, is something arbitration doesn't seem to pay for. Free agents, however, do get paid for it.
    To me, a market inefficiency occurs when a skill is paid less than its contribution to winning. I think defense tends to be undervalued in the market, perhaps not in small part because offense is quantifiable and brings fans into the park. I became a Reds fan in the 50's because the high HR totals attracted me as a kid.

    It seems to me that this is one of the areas that Williams is attempting to exploit. The Alfredo signing seems like a gross overpay to most of us. When the Reds say they think he will hit, I doubt they envision a silver slugger in his future. They simply believe he will hit well enough to carry his weight. Although he was valued in the international market, he was seen by most as being worth less than the Reds paid. No doubt, Heyward was paid for defense. I don't believe I am wrong, however, in believing that the Cubs offensive expectation was for more than an .631 OPS.

  15. #10
    General Patton was wrong. Big Klu's Avatar
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    Re: StatCast Play of the Year...

    What does StatCast know? He didn't even win a Gold Glove!
    Americans love a winner. Americans will not tolerate a loser....Americans play to win all of the time. I wouldn't give a hoot in hell for a man who lost and laughed...the very idea of losing is hateful to an American.

    Gen. George S. Patton, Jr.

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    RedsfaninMT (11-20-2016)

  17. #11
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    Re: StatCast Play of the Year...

    I will say this: I know (or suspect) the mentions of Gold Gloves are just joking and being sarcastic.... but that play by Hamilton really does invite discussion of adding a final "spectacularity" or "closing speed" multiplier/bonus to StatCast ratings.

    I don't know how, exactly, you'd get to it, but it'd be something like the distance between the fielder's Center of Gravity during their last planted step and the spot where the ball enters the glove. It'd be an estimate, but I bet we could get close to a real statistic that we'd all agree is illustrative of something.

    Infielders would get bonuses for full lay-outs and quick reactions..... but OF like Hamilton would benefit the most from Full Points after they used EVERY INCH to snag a ball, versus a guy who was either slow/inefficient OR who just sort of fell down in an awkward "dive."

  18. #12
    Haunted by walks
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    Re: StatCast Play of the Year...

    That might adjust for the Edmonds Factor, that is, slowing down so you can make a dive.

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  20. #13
    Member corkedbat's Avatar
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    Re: StatCast Play of the Year...

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    The thing is, with the way arbitration works (specifically the stats is uses), Hamilton is going to be pretty cheap throughout his arbitration year relative to his actual value. Arbitration doesn't really pay for defense and doesn't pay much for speed. So there's very little for the Reds to gain by buy out his arb years. And to your point, his style of play increases his injury risk, which makes it less desirable to lock him into extra years.
    Agreed. I'd wait another year an see if his plate improvements are legit and then try to buy two or three post-arb years.

  21. #14
    Member corkedbat's Avatar
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    Re: StatCast Play of the Year...

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    The thing is, with the way arbitration works (specifically the stats is uses), Hamilton is going to be pretty cheap throughout his arbitration year relative to his actual value. Arbitration doesn't really pay for defense and doesn't pay much for speed. So there's very little for the Reds to gain by buy out his arb years. And to your point, his style of play increases his injury risk, which makes it less desirable to lock him into extra years.
    Agreed. I'd wait another year an see if his plate improvements are legit and then try to buy two or three post-arb years.

  22. #15
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: StatCast Play of the Year...

    corkedbat, you can say that again.

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    mbgrayson (11-21-2016)


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