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Thread: Fangraphs Reds 2017 Top 30 prospects

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    Member klw's Avatar
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    Fangraphs Reds 2017 Top 30 prospects

    sounds like the list is imminent

    Q-Ball: What team is your next prospect report?
    12:25
    Eric A Longenhagen: Reds, they’re done and in the queue. Pirates in production.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/

    Couple of previews from chat:
    Eric A Longenhagen: Like, I have Robert Stephenson down at #7 on the Reds list (which was submitted to editing last night) because I think he’s a reliever and couldn’t justify putting him any higher.
    Doug Otto : Which Reds prospect do you see having the biggest impact at the MLB level for 2017?
    12:32
    Eric A Longenhagen: Probably Winker, just because he’s on the doorstep.
    Bob: Any spoilers for the reds forthcoming list?
    1:47
    Eric A Longenhagen: Shed Long might sneak onto the back of my overall top 100
    1:47
    Eric A Longenhagen: I’m as surprised as you.
    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/eric-...-back-to-work/
    Last edited by klw; 01-03-2017 at 04:55 PM.

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    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Fangraphs Reds 2017 Top 19 prospects

    I'm a big Shed Long fan. While I rank him a bit lower than some on here would, I probably think we feel the same about him, I'm just a tad higher on some other guys.

    But, I will say this much, if Shed Long is ranked higher than Robert Stephenson is, and those two quotes suggest that may be the case, there's some real validity concerns with your list. I'd be shocked if you could find anyone who works for a professional baseball team that would take a 5' 8" second baseman with 130 plate appearances in Advanced-A over Robert Stephenson, warts and all at this point in time.

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    Re: Fangraphs Reds 2017 Top 19 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I'm a big Shed Long fan. While I rank him a bit lower than some on here would, I probably think we feel the same about him, I'm just a tad higher on some other guys.

    But, I will say this much, if Shed Long is ranked higher than Robert Stephenson is, and those two quotes suggest that may be the case, there's some real validity concerns with your list. I'd be shocked if you could find anyone who works for a professional baseball team that would take a 5' 8" second baseman with 130 plate appearances in Advanced-A over Robert Stephenson, warts and all at this point in time.
    I read over at ESPN Keith Law and he now views Stephenson as a reliever due to his inability to control the zone. If he isn't a starter but by his 3rd year is a top 5 closer where would he be?

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    Re: Fangraphs Reds 2017 Top 19 prospects

    Robert Stephenson isn't throwing hard enough to be a top anything. A 93.1 MPH heater is medium-hard, but without control it's nothing special. Maybe he'd throw a good bit harder in the pen, many do, but I'm not surprised to hear various ratings folks are down on Stephenson.
    Wait until the year after next year.

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    REDREAD (01-04-2017)

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    Re: Fangraphs Reds 2017 Top 19 prospects

    The velo is still there for Stephenson, I think. He was dialing back to throw strikes last year.

    He'll get upper 90s, I think, if he cuts loose as a bullpenner. Where it goes, who knows. I do think he's a good candidate to move back there -- if you watch him, you can see he's kind of high-strung. Comes pacing off the mound to get the ball back from the catcher, that kind of thing. More a closer mindset than a 7 inning guy, perhaps.

    Tool Shed
    minor league forum 2014-15
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    Re: Fangraphs Reds 2017 Top 19 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    The velo is still there for Stephenson, I think. He was dialing back to throw strikes last year.

    He'll get upper 90s, I think, if he cuts loose as a bullpenner. Where it goes, who knows. I do think he's a good candidate to move back there -- if you watch him, you can see he's kind of high-strung. Comes pacing off the mound to get the ball back from the catcher, that kind of thing. More a closer mindset than a 7 inning guy, perhaps.

    Tool Shed
    minor league forum 2014-15
    If his control gets worse when he cuts it loose, then I doubt there's a net gain. He really is a mess. At this point I find myself hoping they just get anything out of him (closer, general purpose reliever, trade bait). Definitely got prospect fatigue on Stephenson.
    Wait until the year after next year.

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    Re: Fangraphs Reds 2017 Top 19 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I'm a big Shed Long fan. While I rank him a bit lower than some on here would, I probably think we feel the same about him, I'm just a tad higher on some other guys.

    But, I will say this much, if Shed Long is ranked higher than Robert Stephenson is, and those two quotes suggest that may be the case, there's some real validity concerns with your list. I'd be shocked if you could find anyone who works for a professional baseball team that would take a 5' 8" second baseman with 130 plate appearances in Advanced-A over Robert Stephenson, warts and all at this point in time.
    You yourself said relievers aren't ranked high as prospects.

    At this juncture while I wouldn't totally agree I don't find it invalid if a prospect guy pegs Robert as a reliever. Which in turn would pretty much drop him behind Long.

    Yes I know the horrors of ranking Stephenson so low, but if as you say, relievers are rarely ranked high...I can respect the opinion of ranking Stephenson so low.

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    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Fangraphs Reds 2017 Top 19 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    You yourself said relievers aren't ranked high as prospects.

    At this juncture while I wouldn't totally agree I don't find it invalid if a prospect guy pegs Robert as a reliever. Which in turn would pretty much drop him behind Long.

    Yes I know the horrors of ranking Stephenson so low, but if as you say, relievers are rarely ranked high...I can respect the opinion of ranking Stephenson so low.
    Sure fire relievers, not guys that may become relievers. There's an enormous difference there.

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    Re: Fangraphs Reds 2017 Top 19 prospects

    There was also a brief mention of Tyler Stephenson as someone to potentially have a rebound year.
    Jimmy: Eric, are there any top prospects that you think are more likely to have a rebound year in 2017? What are some of the most commmon criteria you assess when coming to these conclusions?

    Eric A Longenhagen: Guys who had lost years due to injury. Tyler Stephenson, Lewis Thorpe….there are many

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    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Fangraphs Reds 2017 Top 19 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Robert Stephenson isn't throwing hard enough to be a top anything. A 93.1 MPH heater is medium-hard, but without control it's nothing special. Maybe he'd throw a good bit harder in the pen, many do, but I'm not surprised to hear various ratings folks are down on Stephenson.
    Well, let's be sure to note that even today, 93.1 is better than average velocity. Let's also note that he pitched in April, August and September. Pitchers tend to peak with their velocity in June and July - data points we don't have on him. Let's also note that both his breaking ball and splitter grade out as above-average to plus.

    Yes, he certainly needs some control to go with that - but the guy's got a special arm.

    FTR - BrooksBaseball has him averaging 94.0 MPH this year with the fastball.

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    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Fangraphs Reds 2017 Top 19 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Sure fire relievers, not guys that may become relievers. There's an enormous difference there.
    I would say forget Shed Long in this comparison. He wouldn't make my top 100 but I'm not upset if someone puts him in....that's fair enough.

    But if a prospect guy looks at Stephenson's struggles and pencils him in as a reliever and drops him out of the top 100...that's fine also...I would disagree but invalid is a very strong claim.

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    Re: Fangraphs Reds 2017 Top 19 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Well, let's be sure to note that even today, 93.1 is better than average velocity. Let's also note that he pitched in April, August and September. Pitchers tend to peak with their velocity in June and July - data points we don't have on him. Let's also note that both his breaking ball and splitter grade out as above-average to plus.

    Yes, he certainly needs some control to go with that - but the guy's got a special arm.

    FTR - BrooksBaseball has him averaging 94.0 MPH this year with the fastball.
    Robert Stephenson throwing 93.1 isn't going to work. What's that? A 60 fastball if you can control it, less if you can't (and he can't). Here's what a special arm looks like - Alex Reyes or Thor.

    Time to admit Stephenson isn't one of those guys. Doesn't mean he's a washout, but he doesn't measure up to the game's true flamethrowers.
    Wait until the year after next year.

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    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Fangraphs Reds 2017 Top 19 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Robert Stephenson throwing 93.1 isn't going to work. What's that? A 60 fastball if you can control it, less if you can't (and he can't). Here's what a special arm looks like - Alex Reyes or Thor.

    Time to admit Stephenson isn't one of those guys. Doesn't mean he's a washout, but he doesn't measure up to the game's true flamethrowers.
    Thor is on a different level than just about anyone. He's got the arm and the control. Alex Reyes - special, special arm. Let's see what happens there.

    Stephenson isn't on THAT level. But he's probably on the next level. Guys with two above-average to plus offspeed pitches aren't growing on trees. He needs to execute better, but when it comes to just that pure arm, he's on a different level than a lot of the guys throwing baseballs for a living.

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    Re: Fangraphs Reds 2017 Top 19 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    He needs to execute better, but when it comes to just that pure arm, he's on a different level than a lot of the guys throwing baseballs for a living.
    "He needs to execute better" might be the understatement of the year.

    I count 173 guys who averaged 93 or better and threw at least 30 IP in the majors last season. Ross Ohlendorf sat at 93.8. Stephenson's not that special. He's got some pitches that could make for a quality combination, but he's 23 and he hasn't learned how to control them or how to pitch in general. He's not the 95+ beast we once dreamed of and he needs to put together what he's got in short order or he's liable to become a journeyman. His ceiling is not where it used to be.
    Wait until the year after next year.

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    Re: Fangraphs Reds 2017 Top 19 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    "He needs to execute better" might be the understatement of the year.

    I count 173 guys who averaged 93 or better and threw at least 30 IP in the majors last season. Ross Ohlendorf sat at 93.8. Stephenson's not that special. He's got some pitches that could make for a quality combination, but he's 23 and he hasn't learned how to control them or how to pitch in general. He's not the 95+ beast we once dreamed of and he needs to put together what he's got in short order or he's liable to become a journeyman. His ceiling is not where it used to be.
    We're all bummed by the lack of development, but I think you're overcorrecting a bit too much here. Some pitchers come around later than others. Homer Bailey comes to mind.

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