Fangraphs Reds 2017 Top 30 prospects

[IndianaRed]

List is actually 30 prospects instead of 19 in case a mod wants to change the thread title.


I assume Shed Long at 5 may cause the most discussion but Longenhagen di say in chat that he views him as being in his top 100.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...rticleid=30915

BP has Shed in top 10 as well (at #9) with same 50 FV (optimistic outcome). Came out today. Maybe Shed is catching some helium?

[kaldaniels]

Most starters with control problems go to the bullpen and throw more strikes. Stuff plays up, usually, they tend to also drop a pitch which lets them go with the better options. Also guys only get 1 look at them.

Sorry but I have to ask. Do you call into question the validity of the Fangraphs list due to the rank of Stephenson? 45 FV isn't really top 100 material....though you could argue he might sneak in I suppose.

[dougdirt]

Sorry but I have to ask. Do you call into question the validity of the Fangraphs list due to the rank of Stephenson? 45 FV isn't really top 100 material....though you could argue he might sneak in I suppose.

I think the FG rankings are pretty strange. Rookie Davis ahead of Sal Romano, Tony Santillan, Vlad Gutierrez, Tyler Mahle and a few others? That's an enormous stretch. Didn't crack my Top 25. Didn't crack the BA Top 30.

I'm a big Shed Long fan. But #5 in the system also seems like a pretty big stretch. If you want to argue he's at #10, I'll listen and if I squint hard enough I can make that work. I just can't do that for #5, though.

With that said, there's some good information in the write ups. Not everything jives with that I've seen and heard, but a lot of it does for many of the guys. I believe that Eric and I just value prospects a bit differently. And that's ok. Except the Rookie Davis thing. That one is just flat out confusing.

[Kc61]

Most starters with control problems go to the bullpen and throw more strikes. Stuff plays up, usually, they tend to also drop a pitch which lets them go with the better options. Also guys only get 1 look at them.

If you say so. But all the points you make would improve stuff - not control.

Drop a bad pitch, guys get 1 look, etc., can make a pitcher's stuff tougher to hit.

Doesn't explain to me why control would be better pitching shorter stint.

[dougdirt]

If you say so. But all the points you make would improve stuff - not control.

Drop a bad pitch, guys get 1 look, etc., can make a pitcher's stuff tougher to hit.

Doesn't explain to me why control would be better pitching shorter stint.

Well, dropping your worst pitch in a move to the bullpen usually leaves you with your two better offerings. That also usually includes the two pitches you throw for strikes more often. So, that's one reason control is improved.

But, largely, you're right that it improves stuff, not control. And control alone won't change walk rate. But stuff will. Better stuff gets hitters to expand more. So whether the pitch is actually in the zone or not, if the stuff is better, unless it's Steve Blass kind of control, it's going to lead to more strikes overall, in most cases.

[Tom Servo]

I definitely think Kiley McDaniel was a better prospect guy than Longenhagen (which is probably why Kiley has a job with an MLB team), but I think Eric's writeups are good even if some of the rankings are funky.

[bellhead]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-2...-introduction/

I see that and with the rankings Fangraphs used for a # of our starting pitchers they have them all at 45, but go on to say they are a 4/5 starter or a mid to high closer "8/9 guy" if they move to the bullpen which to me is contraindicating the FV value they placed on them.

Senzel has a 55 value but here is the writeup.

I have Senzel projected as an above-average everyday player. If the defense or power progress beyond my projections (I think there’s a chance for both), then he has a chance for stardom.

Why not give him a 60 value then? As a plus player?

I honestly feel like all of the ratings are 5 below what the writeups call for.

[OnBaseMachine]

Fangraphs grades Jesse Winker's hit tool as a 70 in the future. With a plus-plus hit tool and strong plate discipline, I don't care if he only hits 12-15 HR a year if he's getting on base at a .380 clip and hitting 35 doubles.

[Kc61]

Well, dropping your worst pitch in a move to the bullpen usually leaves you with your two better offerings. That also usually includes the two pitches you throw for strikes more often. So, that's one reason control is improved.

But, largely, you're right that it improves stuff, not control. And control alone won't change walk rate. But stuff will. Better stuff gets hitters to expand more. So whether the pitch is actually in the zone or not, if the stuff is better, unless it's Steve Blass kind of control, it's going to lead to more strikes overall, in most cases.

I agree with your second point, hitters will swing at bad pitches when the stuff is excellent.

Still, I think the best road for Stephenson remains as a starter working on his control. Bullpen ok as a temporary stop.

[membengal]

Thrilled with them noticing Shed Long. I wanted him top 10 for our list. Win.

[kaldaniels]

I agree with your second point, hitters will swing at bad pitches when the stuff is excellent.

Still, I think the best road for Stephenson remains as a starter working on his control. Bullpen ok as a temporary stop.

That bit about his CB being a 30 at times made me shudder.

[americanoutlaw1]

Jackson Stephens seems to have been oversighted

[Bourgeois Zee]

The comparables are often fun to read.

You could field a pretty solid team out of the players on the list. Which, I suppose, is the point.

[Edd Roush]

Fangraphs grades Jesse Winker's hit tool as a 70 in the future. With a plus-plus hit tool and strong plate discipline, I don't care if he only hits 12-15 HR a year if he's getting on base at a .380 clip and hitting 35 doubles.

I love the Darin Erstad comp. If we can get an Erstad 2000 year out of Winker, he could carry us into the playoffs. I know the comp is more about the career numbers, but that Erstad 2000 year is insane.

[Griffey012]

I keep feeling like Senzel is being sold short. Perhaps I have my red tinted glasses on, but we have a 3B who is athletic and should continue to improve defensively, can steal a few bases and should be an above average base runner, and should carry a good average/obp. His biggest question mark seems to be power but the potential is definitely there.

Meanwhile Yoan Moncada is a FV 70 and Christian Arroyo is a FV 55 like Senzel. If those are our ranges I would think he has to be somewhere in between. They have Arroyo projecting as a Martin Prado type and his most noteworthy comp is Casey McGehee.

Hit/Raw Pwr/Game Pwr/Run/Fld/Thrw
Yoan 60/60/60/70/50/70
Senzel 60/60/55/50/50/55
Arroyo 70/40/40/40/50/60