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Thread: Fangraphs Reds 2017 Top 30 prospects

  1. #16
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    Re: Fangraphs Reds 2017 Top 19 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by BillDoran View Post
    We're all bummed by the lack of development, but I think you're overcorrecting a bit too much here. Some pitchers come around later than others. Homer Bailey comes to mind.
    And many never come around. The fine line between "execution" and failure is how the expression TNSTAAPP came about.
    The team Matheny described several times this weekend as the team he thinks the Cardinals could be, is actually the team the Reds have become.

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  4. #17
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    Re: Fangraphs Reds 2017 Top 19 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    "He needs to execute better" might be the understatement of the year.

    I count 173 guys who averaged 93 or better and threw at least 30 IP in the majors last season. Ross Ohlendorf sat at 93.8. Stephenson's not that special. He's got some pitches that could make for a quality combination, but he's 23 and he hasn't learned how to control them or how to pitch in general. He's not the 95+ beast we once dreamed of and he needs to put together what he's got in short order or he's liable to become a journeyman. His ceiling is not where it used to be.
    Let me know when more than 20 of those guys can do that while starting. Setting it at 30 innings includes almost every reliever in baseball.

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    Re: Fangraphs Reds 2017 Top 19 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    And many never come around. The fine line between "execution" and failure is how the expression TNSTAAPP came about.
    TINSTAAPP came around when guys blowing an elbow usually meant your career was over. Things have changed a whole lot since then.

    While pitchers still miss (so do hitters for that matter), when that phrase came about things were so much different than they are today. Teams are treating and training pitchers much, much differently today than they were when that phrase came around.

  7. #19
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    Re: Fangraphs Reds 2017 Top 19 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by BillDoran View Post
    We're all bummed by the lack of development, but I think you're overcorrecting a bit too much here. Some pitchers come around later than others. Homer Bailey comes to mind.
    I'm not saying Stephenson can't make it work, but he's not going to be throwing a 70 fastball, which two years was the hope. And his control issues are serious.

    Bailey's an interesting comparison because when he panned out in 2012-2 he was a #3 pitcher. Good seasons, but he never became the ace many had envisioned in his youth. It's still an open question whether the Reds got more out of Bailey or Mike Leake, whose overall numbers with the Reds stack up just about even with Bailey. Obviously Bailey still has the opportunity to contribute more to the cause. Leake leads in pitching WAR 8.5 to 6.8.

    If I told you Stephenson would take three more years to make it and had a #3 starter ceiling, I suspect you'd be inclined to move him down the team's prospect list - which is my point.
    Wait until the year after next year.

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    Re: Fangraphs Reds 2017 Top 19 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    If I told you Stephenson would take three more years to make it and had a #3 starter ceiling, I suspect you'd be inclined to move him down the team's prospect list - which is my point.
    I wouldn't move him at all. I know you rank your guys differently than I do, but I'm ranking a guy based on what his entire career is going to shake out to be, not what his first few years of team control will look like.

  10. #21
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    Re: Fangraphs Reds 2017 Top 19 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Let me know when more than 20 of those guys can do that while starting. Setting it at 30 innings includes almost every reliever in baseball.
    You can look at the list and pick out the SPs. My guess is it's somewhere around 50. Like I said, medium-hard, 60 fastball (if he can control it). That could be good, again dependent on control, but you're still talking like the sky's the limit when it's not.
    Wait until the year after next year.

  11. #22
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    Re: Fangraphs Reds 2017 Top 19 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    You can look at the list and pick out the SPs. My guess is it's somewhere around 50. Like I said, medium-hard, 60 fastball (if he can control it). That could be good, again dependent on control, but you're still talking like the sky's the limit when it's not.
    A 60 fastball with a 60-70 curve and a 70 splitter is pretty far up into the sky. Assuming he can control it, of course. In "scout speak" That's a #2 profile, or one of the best 20-25 starters in baseball.

    Now, if he can actually control it, maybe he starts trying to throw harder again and we see that 60 fastball make a step up to a 65 or 70 fastball.

    Control is going to be the key, but we probably shouldn't pretend that even if he's "only" a 91-96 MPH guy like he was last year, that if we couple that with two plus offspeed offerings we aren't talking about a guy with a very high ceiling.
    Last edited by dougdirt; 01-04-2017 at 02:19 AM.

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    Re: Fangraphs Reds 2017 Top 19 prospects

    I'm gonna watch his progression for another season before I jump on the BobSteve Steamroller.

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    Re: Fangraphs Reds 2017 Top 19 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by klw View Post
    sounds like the list is imminent
    Well imminent was a bit optimistic apparently.

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    Edd Roush (01-05-2017)

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    Re: Fangraphs Reds 2017 Top 19 prospects

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-3...ncinnati-reds/



    This is an excellent system despite a lack of star power up top because itís extremely deep with a healthy middle class of likely big-league contributors. This club had a good draft and added two of the bigger name international free agents available while stumbling into T.J. Friedl, who fits in snugly in a system with quite a bit of up-the-middle talent. In addition to the three catchers listed above, Jake Turnbull, Pabel Manzanero and Ryan Cassidy-Brown are all potential backups. This system is also full of more plus fastballs than Iíve overviewed here. Dauri Moreta was up to 95 with an average changeup for me during instructs for Godís sake. One of those guys might pop up next year. The Reds will have the chance to add to the top of this list with the draftís No. 2 overall pick. I expect the top of the draft to be dense with college pitching but Jeren Kendall and Hunter Greene are probably coming off the board up top, as well.
    Last edited by IndianaRed; 01-05-2017 at 12:04 PM.

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  19. #26
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    Re: Fangraphs Reds 2017 Top 19 prospects

    List is actually 30 prospects instead of 19 in case a mod wants to change the thread title.


    I assume Shed Long at 5 may cause the most discussion but Longenhagen di say in chat that he views him as being in his top 100.

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    Re: Fangraphs Reds 2017 Top 19 prospects

    Just can't understand why a starter without control should be considered a reliever.

    I can understand how a pitcher's stuff gets better over a shorter stint. He can throw harder, etc. Lorenzen's stuff plays better in the pen, for example

    But I don't get why Stephenson's high walk rates will change out of the bullpen.

    He's not a reliever, he's a starter with control problems.
    Last edited by Kc61; 01-05-2017 at 12:34 PM.

  21. #28
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    Re: Fangraphs Reds 2017 Top 19 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Just can't understand why a starter without control should be considered a reliever.

    I can understand how a pitcher's stuff gets better over a shorter stint. He can throw harder, etc. Lorenzen's stuff plays better in the pen, for example

    But I don't get why Stephenson's high walk rates will change out of the bullpen.

    He's not a reliever, he's a starter with control problems.
    Most starters with control problems go to the bullpen and throw more strikes. Stuff plays up, usually, they tend to also drop a pitch which lets them go with the better options. Also guys only get 1 look at them.

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    Re: Fangraphs Reds 2017 Top 19 prospects

    Someone give me the dirty on the FV system.

    FV=55 is that everyday starter or potential all star?

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    Re: Fangraphs Reds 2017 Top 19 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by bellhead View Post
    Someone give me the dirty on the FV system.

    FV=55 is that everyday starter or potential all star?
    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-2...-introduction/


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