2017 Preseason Baseball America Top 100

[Bourgeois Zee]

I think people are expecting him to repeat what he did in the second half of last season. I still expect .290/.320/.380/.700.

There is literally no one on this board who thinks that Peraza will hit .350+ and OPS 850.

Not a one.

[M2]

Where is that line, then, M2? If 41 ABs is a "blip," is 100 AB's relevant? 200? Does Peraza get credit for having to play sporadically for the first time in his career? For learning different positions on the fly? Do his 21 BBs at the AAA level constitute a better understanding of the strike zone, or is that also just a blip? Is it okay to mention the higher level at all? Or can we only mention it if the prospect's BABiP is exactly within your parameters of luck?

I'm giving more value to producing at a higher level. As I would with any prospect. As we all did with Senzel. And Long. And, to a lesser extent, any prospect that moves up a level and shows out.

Crazy idea, how about you just combine the stats like I did many posts ago? Don't ignore any of his numbers. I'm happy Peraza got hot and played well at the end of the season, but if you normalize his BABIP his MLB numbers look an awful lot like his AAA numbers.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Crazy idea, how about you just combine the stats like I did many posts ago?

I'm ignoring nothing. I'm just giving more value to the higher level. As we all do with any prospect.

Regardless, I'm done with this. It's clear we're not going to agree on this, so let's just move on.

[M2]

I'm ignoring nothing. I'm just giving more value to the higher level. As we all do with any prospect.

Regardless, I'm done with this. It's clear we're not going to agree on this, so let's just move on.

Where have you accounted for his AAA numbers at all? And you keep dancing past his BABIP. I get liking his MLB numbers, but once you dig into the numbers it becomes clear the difference between that and his AAA numbers was his BABIP. There's nothing to agree or disagree with on that. It just is.

[mth123]

We disagree fundamentally there.

Mookie Betts is a power hitter because of what he did last season as a major leaguer. Joey Votto has an elite hit tool. Neither of those were evident in the minor leagues. Doing well in a higher league is much more impressive than whatever career numbers you might have had previously.

Not only that, the list of guys who were as good as Peraza was last season with the bat at that particular position at that age are few and far between. And almost all of them turned out very good. That matters.

Now, don't misconstrue this: I've never said Peraza was going to be Rod Carew despite your best intentions to screwhorn me (and anyone else who might like Peraza as a prospect) into that particular strawman. What I'm saying is that a 22-year-old kid who can play SS and profiles somewhere around .300/.350/400 is a more valuable prospect than a slightly older 23-year-old kid who might be two standard deviations more patient, but a corner OF.

The .350 part is the problem. His ISOd is around .030. To reach .350, he needs to hit .320. Rod Carew. You say you don't claim it, but when you give him a .350 OBP, it's exactly what you are doing. Heck, I think assuming some kid with several seasons in the minor leagues below .300, even .300 is pretty darned presumptuous. At .290, he may barely eek out a .700 OPS.

The .400 slugging percentage is a similar problem. His ISOp is about .085. To slug .400, he needs to hit .315. There's Rod again.

[BillDoran]

Aside from a few posters, I don't think many of us have too high of hopes for Peraza's bat. But I do really like that he's a big contact guy, has good wheels, has defensive versatility (and an ability to play up-the-middle). He seems a steady type of guy that's good for a team, a player that's likely to have a lengthy career; maybe I'd go as far as he has the traits of a winner. Anyways, I'm excited about the future of Peraza. I don't think he'll ever be a Sabermetrics darling, but I think he'll serve the team well.

[REDREAD]

The difference in their ISOp last season (excluding Winker's rookie ball numbers, which should be excluded) was .007. Both were poor, but Winker still holds a .072 career advantage. However, if Winker stays at his 2016 level then he's a Magadan bat that should be relegated to PH and bench duty.
.

That is part of the reason why I would rate Pereza higher now. Winker might end up being the better player eventually.
But right now, Peraza is a starting SS, with potentially more offensive value than Cozart.
Winker, right now, would probably struggle to unseat one of the incumbent OF in a fair contest. He should repeat AAA. There is a real possibility that Winker does not get his power back. I hope not.
If Peraza and Winker were very close offensively last year, then the edge goes to a SS over a LF.
Now I agree, I do not expect Peraza to hit 320+ every year.. But 290-300 seems reasonable. A SS with good speed that can put the ball in play is pretty useful.

[chicoruiz]

BA just announced Luis Castillo as one of ten prospects who just missed the top 101. So there's that...

[dougdirt]

BA just announced Luis Castillo as one of ten prospects who just missed the top 101. So there's that...

Baseball America?

They ranked him 12th in the system, so unless the other ten guys were also Reds, I'm really confused.

[chicoruiz]

Sorry...I meant BP.

[Will M]

There is literally no one on this board who thinks that Peraza will hit .350+ and OPS 850.

Not a one.

well lets see...
a lucky BABIP fueled 350+ average drives up the OBP. maybe a 350 average and a 390 OBP. so he'd just have to slug 460 during his career lucky year to get that 850 OPS. and its easier to slug 460 if you hit 350 than if you hit say 280. so while its unlikely for him to do this its not impossible for him to have a career/lucky year where its done. he did slug 411 last year.

Fangraphs just did a piece comparing Phillips to Peraza. Phillips slugged 440 or higher 4 times in his career.

I think...
1) yeh, its unlikely he is going to have an 850 OPS
2) however he is young & I've stopped trying to set limits on player's ceilings based on the minor league scouts say. I've seen too many guys surprise on the upside (as well as the downside). its not chemistry, its baseball. he may develop more power than we think. even doubles/triples power will up that slugging percentage.
3) everyone is guilty of positive or negative player biases but lets give him and the rest of the Reds youth a couple seasons to see how they develop/don't develop

- Brett

[dougdirt]

Sorry...I meant BP.

That makes a lot more sense.

But it again shows just how strange the opinions are on Reds prospects, doesn't it? Baseball America is the most respected prospect evaluation place around, nationally, right? They've got a guy ranked 12th in the system that other respectable places have ranked in the Top 110 players in the game. Castillo was inside the ESPN Top 100. Apparently he's inside the BP Top 110. Castillo was 12th in the org by BA and Sickels, and Sickels only had the Reds Top 6 guys in his Top 200, so according to him, Castillo isn't anywhere NEAR the Top 200 prospects in the game. Personally, I think that's all kinds of crazy, but that's a different topic. Such a wide array of opinions - it's real interesting to see right now.

[OnBaseMachine]

BEYOND THE TOP 100: BREAKOUT PROSPECTS AT EVERY POSITION

Upper: Jesse Winker (Reds). You can’t ignore that Winker hit just three home runs in 106 games last year in Triple-A. That won’t cut it for a left fielder who is below-average defensively. Yet Winker did hit 13 home runs in 2015 and 15 the year before, with the lingering effects of wrist injuries perhaps eating into his power. Still 23, Winker has an outstanding eye for the strike zone and a knack for the barrel, which is why I still think he has a chance to be a middle-of-the-order hitter.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minor...MTlO5A43vou.97