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Thread: Luis Robert - How much should the Reds offer?

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    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Luis Robert - How much should the Reds offer?

    By now I'm sure most have heard of Cuban phenom Luis Robert. If not, here's an article with plenty of quotes to bring you up to speed.

    How good is Robert? One American League international scouting director described Robert as "the best player on the planet, and that's no exaggeration."
    Playing for Ciego de Avila in Cuba's Serie Nacional, the island's top league, Robert hit .393 with 12 home runs and 11 stolen bases last season. He was also part of the Cuban team that played against the Canadian-American League last summer. The 19-game tour included stops in Little Falls, N.J., and Pomona, N.Y.

    "[Japan's] Shohei Ohtani is the best international player out there and he's a different animal because he would be the ace of a staff and he can hit," one National League international scouting director said. "But Robert is up there. He's a five-tool guy that can be in the big leagues soon. He has to be No. 2 behind Ohtani. He's that good."
    "Luis is the top prospect I have ever worked with," Mercedes said. "Cespedes was an older player, a more mature player. He was 26. I don't know if there is anyone with Cespedes' power. It's tough to compare the two since Luis is only 19. He might not be as strong as Cespedes was at that age, but he does have very fast hands and that makes up for the strength."

    Robert has established residency in Haiti, the first step to becoming a free agent, but he has not been declared a free agent and is not yet eligible to sign with a big league club. When he is cleared to sign matters.

    If Robert is cleared to sign by June 15, the A's, Astros, Braves, Cardinals, Nationals, Padres and Reds, who have all exceeded their 2016-17 bonus pools, remain in the mix to sign him. However, when the international-signing period starts on July 2, those teams will join the Cubs, Dodgers and Royals in a group of teams that will not be able to sign international prospects for more than $300,000 because they are in the maximum penalty. The Angels, D-backs, Rays, Red Sox and Yankees will no longer be limited to signing players for $300,000 or less during the next signing period.
    http://m.mlb.com/news/article/216971...onal-prospect/

    After June 15th, the Reds can't sign any international prospects for more than $300,000 until July 2nd, 2019. If Luis Robert is cleared to sign before June 15th, it makes all the sense in the world for the Reds to throw a boatload of cash at him. The question is how much? Yoan Moncada received $31.5M but the tax penalty brought the total to $63M for the Red Sox. For all the hype he received, Lazaro Armenteros only got $3M. However, Robert appears to be closer to big league ready. My best guess in Robert's contract falls somewhere in the middle, around $15M to $20M? Even at the expense of $35M or $40M it makes too much sense not to pursue an elite talent like Robert. The new TV deal kicks in soon; Phillips contract is off the books after this year, and the Reds will save cash during the next two international signing periods.

    In a span of a year, the Reds could add Nick Senzel, Taylor Trammell, Chris Okey, T.J. Friedl, Dilson Herrera, Vladimir Gutierrez, Luis Castillo, Luis Robert, and the #2, #32, and #38 picks in the draft. If Dick Williams makes this happen, I will begin sculpting his statue.

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    Re: Luis Robert - How much should the Reds offer?

    I mean I'd offer as much as it takes, but the reality is it isn't my money, so.... That said since realistically he can't get more than 5.5 million if he waits until after June 15, in theory the market has been dragged down. I'd say you start in the 6.5-7.5 million range and then see where it goes. I'd doubt we see money get to Moncada range, but of course it is possible especially if it is a bidding war. To me if it stays in the 6-12 mil range financially it makes sense. If it goes beyond that, then that is a whole pile of cash to commit considering penalties that the Reds might not be able to do.

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    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Luis Robert - How much should the Reds offer?

    Quote Originally Posted by SYCMiniBus View Post
    I mean I'd offer as much as it takes, but the reality is it isn't my money, so.... That said since realistically he can't get more than 5.5 million if he waits until after June 15, in theory the market has been dragged down. I'd say you start in the 6.5-7.5 million range and then see where it goes. I'd doubt we see money get to Moncada range, but of course it is possible especially if it is a bidding war. To me if it stays in the 6-12 mil range financially it makes sense. If it goes beyond that, then that is a whole pile of cash to commit considering penalties that the Reds might not be able to do.
    It's not so much about him waiting until a date. He's got no choice in it. MLB has all of the power here. They get to decide when he's eligible to sign. I'd imagine if he becomes eligible to sign prior to June 15th, and you go in at 7.5M, you're going to be short by a few million. Doesn't hurt to ask, but you don't want to come in too low or they won't take you seriously.

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    I hate the Cubs LoganBuck's Avatar
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    Re: Luis Robert - How much should the Reds offer?

    Hugs, smiling, and interactive Twitter accounts, don't mean winning baseball. Until this community understands that we are cursed to relive the madness.

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    Re: Luis Robert - How much should the Reds offer?

    Which teams are ineligible to bid this year that will be eligible next year?

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    Re: Luis Robert - How much should the Reds offer?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    It's not so much about him waiting until a date. He's got no choice in it. MLB has all of the power here. They get to decide when he's eligible to sign. I'd imagine if he becomes eligible to sign prior to June 15th, and you go in at 7.5M, you're going to be short by a few million. Doesn't hurt to ask, but you don't want to come in too low or they won't take you seriously.
    Luis Robert has to want to be eligible ASAP, because the new rules for the 2017-2018 period, kind of suck.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by RED VAN HOT View Post
    Which teams are ineligible to bid this year that will be eligible next year?
    Angels, D-backs, Rays, Red Sox and Yankees will no longer be limited to signing players for $300,000 or less during the next signing period.
    Hugs, smiling, and interactive Twitter accounts, don't mean winning baseball. Until this community understands that we are cursed to relive the madness.

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    Re: Luis Robert - How much should the Reds offer?

    So Yoan Moncada left Cuba on June 30, 2014 and he was not declared a free agent until November 14, 2014. So if theres any kind of similar time frame, Robert should be cleared to sign around May (he left Cuba at the beginning of January).

    So there could be a legitimate chance they sign him.
    Last edited by William; 02-25-2017 at 03:21 PM.
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    Re: Luis Robert - How much should the Reds offer?

    Quote Originally Posted by SYCMiniBus View Post
    I mean I'd offer as much as it takes, but the reality is it isn't my money, so.... That said since realistically he can't get more than 5.5 million if he waits until after June 15, in theory the market has been dragged down. I'd say you start in the 6.5-7.5 million range and then see where it goes. I'd doubt we see money get to Moncada range, but of course it is possible especially if it is a bidding war. To me if it stays in the 6-12 mil range financially it makes sense. If it goes beyond that, then that is a whole pile of cash to commit considering penalties that the Reds might not be able to do.
    Oh, I think the Reds should be able to do this. Not saying they will get the player. But financially it makes sense to try.

    Reds' strategy should be - and seemingly is - to sign high priced Int'l prospects instead of much higher priced major league free agents. They shouldn't shy away from that now.

    Particularly since they will be limited in the next two seasons at $300,000 per signing. Their last chance at a big time Int'l signing is the next few months. After that, the $300,000 limit applies for awhile.

    At some point the price tag becomes ridiculous or the player just decides to pick somebody else. So maybe they don't get him. But Reds should be in this.

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    Re: Luis Robert - How much should the Reds offer?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    It's not so much about him waiting until a date. He's got no choice in it. MLB has all of the power here. They get to decide when he's eligible to sign. I'd imagine if he becomes eligible to sign prior to June 15th, and you go in at 7.5M, you're going to be short by a few million. Doesn't hurt to ask, but you don't want to come in too low or they won't take you seriously.
    If a negotiation starts at 7 and the goal is to get it to 10, I am not sure that is the type of difference that would turn a player off as not being serious. And I'm aware it isn't about waiting if is about when he is cleared, but that reality of a June 15 "deadline" is a loss of leverage for him since he won't be able to drag things out in order to bring in more bidders such as the Yankees or Red Sox.

    The leverage in this and the reality of how a market has been defined (at least in theory, obviously it only takes one team to blow that out of the water) would indicate you start negotiations north of what he could get after June 15, but you don't blow it out of the water.

    Also given the reality that it is tough to think all of Houston, Atlanta, Toronto (if they are even eligible for an under 23 international FA), San Diego would be willing to spend another 15-25 mil (including penalties) for another international FA given what they have already spent. Maybe one or two of them would, but certainly not all, added with the teams who just flat out don't invest in the international FA market, the competition would likely not facilitate a massive 20-25 million bonus offer which would make a 6-8 million initial offer look horrible.

    Now if the Yankees/Cubs/Red Sox were allowed to do that we might have a different dynamic in play, but this timing and the change of rules probably artificially drives down just how much he will get. Of course you never can know for sure because one team could go bonkers and offer him a 20-30 million bonus, but the leverage and the situation seem to dictate that likely won't be the case.

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    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Luis Robert - How much should the Reds offer?

    If you come in at 7 and everyone else is coming in at 11, they probably aren't calling you back.

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    Re: Luis Robert - How much should the Reds offer?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    If you come in at 7 and everyone else is coming in at 11, they probably aren't calling you back.
    Well yes, but given the nature of the situation is that likely? Maybe that is the case, but given the situation of financial situations of teams likely to be involved and penalties already paid, it is tough to think that is the likely case. I am not saying it absolutely will be, but leverage is a funny thing, and honestly the timing couldn't be worse for Luis Robert right now. If this was at the beginning of the international signing period, if big money teams COULD sign him, or if the rules weren't changing he'd be in a position to demand significantly more

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    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Luis Robert - How much should the Reds offer?

    Quote Originally Posted by SYCMiniBus View Post
    Well yes, but given the nature of the situation is that likely? Maybe that is the case, but given the situation of financial situations of teams likely to be involved and penalties already paid, it is tough to think that is the likely case. I am not saying it absolutely will be, but leverage is a funny thing, and honestly the timing couldn't be worse for Luis Robert right now. If this was at the beginning of the international signing period, if big money teams COULD sign him, or if the rules weren't changing he'd be in a position to demand significantly more
    If he's as good as some people are saying, the odds are good that $7M isn't going to be close.

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    Re: Luis Robert - How much should the Reds offer?

    Whatever it takes. That's how much they should offer #notmymoney

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    Re: Luis Robert - How much should the Reds offer?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    If he's as good as some people are saying, the odds are good that $7M isn't going to be close.
    And if it isn't close, just not sure the Reds are in a position to pay 15 mil without penalties. I know your thoughts on Franchise values meaning taking losses in year isn't a bad financial move, but the reality is I can't imagine owners taking year to year losses because of a franchise value number for something they have no intention to sell. Because of that they likely don't want to lose money, and can't fathom the Reds have another 25-40 mil after penalties that they can spend this year

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    Re: Luis Robert - How much should the Reds offer?

    Like I said elsewhere, how much money they got in the bank? Either that or tell him to take his highest offer and add 50 then take out a loan on the Buick.

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