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Thread: TJ Friedl: Ceiling, ETA, Fit

  1. #16
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: TJ Friedl: Ceiling, ETA, Fit

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Wouldn't be surprised to see him skip over Dayton, like Trahan did. Dayton could already play Siri, Trammel and Beltre in the OF. Friedl's more advanced than they are.
    That would solve the logjam issue. It also would free up Trammell to play CF, which is where I'd like to see him get most of his work at this stage of his development. Real tough jump, though. I'm going to trust in princeton on this one: challenge thy hitters. If they think Friedl can do it, go for it.
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  4. #17
    Wait... What? Vander's Avatar
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    Re: TJ Friedl: Ceiling, ETA, Fit

    They started out Trahan in high-A, so I don't see why trying Friedl out there would be all that horrible.

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    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: TJ Friedl: Ceiling, ETA, Fit

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    That would solve the logjam issue. It also would free up Trammell to play CF, which is where I'd like to see him get most of his work at this stage of his development. Real tough jump, though. I'm going to trust in princeton on this one: challenge thy hitters. If they think Friedl can do it, go for it.
    It would certainly make him a more interesting prospect.

    A good season while skipping a level might well make him a top 100 guy by the end of the season.

  6. #19
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: TJ Friedl: Ceiling, ETA, Fit

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    It would certainly make him a more interesting prospect.

    A good season while skipping a level might well make him a top 100 guy by the end of the season.
    Doubtful, at least on say, a Baseball America/ESPN list. Very few guys can go from where Friedl ranks right now to a top 100 guy after the season. The ones that do tend to be big tools guys. That's not Friedl.

  7. #20
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: TJ Friedl: Ceiling, ETA, Fit

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Doubtful, at least on say, a Baseball America/ESPN list. Very few guys can go from where Friedl ranks right now to a top 100 guy after the season. The ones that do tend to be big tools guys. That's not Friedl.
    I disagree. His name is out there. People will be following him closer than a run of the mill guy (with his talent). If he excels, he will be on a top-100...if anything just due to name recognition. Doesn't make it right or wrong, just how it is.

  8. #21
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    Re: TJ Friedl: Ceiling, ETA, Fit

    I thought Friedl had some real high tools too. A 70 speed tool is plus. A 55 ceiling/ future hit tool (by Longenhagen on Fangraphs) and 60 defense up the middle might get him there.

    That said, I agree with your overall premise that Friedl would have to hit .300+ with acceptable power (thereby lifting his scouting tools) to sniff any top 100 lists. That's a lot to ask while skipping a level.

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    Re: TJ Friedl: Ceiling, ETA, Fit

    While the Dayton OF is indeed crowded, is Friedl capable of moving up to High A that quickly?
    I don't think we have the answer to that. But Trahan survived at Daytona after a very rough start, and Friedl seems to be comparably skilled.
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  10. #23
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    Re: TJ Friedl: Ceiling, ETA, Fit

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    I don't think we have the answer to that. But Trahan survived at Daytona after a very rough start, and Friedl seems to be comparably skilled.
    Speaking of Trahan, it'll be interesting to see what they do with him. A move to AA would make sense, but there's a logjam of mediocre SS prospects there, with Daal and Vincej ahead of him in the pipeline.

  11. #24
    Wait... What? Vander's Avatar
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    Re: TJ Friedl: Ceiling, ETA, Fit

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    I thought Friedl had some real high tools too. A 70 speed tool is plus. A 55 ceiling/ future hit tool (by Longenhagen on Fangraphs) and 60 defense up the middle might get him there.

    That said, I agree with your overall premise that Friedl would have to hit .300+ with acceptable power (thereby lifting his scouting tools) to sniff any top 100 lists. That's a lot to ask while skipping a level.
    I think you got it right with the power. What would send him up a lot of boards is if he showed average power. Right now, I think most publications rate his it at somewhere around a 30. If he displays 50 power, he's a top 100 prospect. But that's asking quite a lot.

  12. #25
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: TJ Friedl: Ceiling, ETA, Fit

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    I disagree. His name is out there. People will be following him closer than a run of the mill guy (with his talent). If he excels, he will be on a top-100...if anything just due to name recognition. Doesn't make it right or wrong, just how it is.
    If you're talking about prospect lists we shouldn't pay attention to, sure, someone might put him on there for the name value and a good statistical season. But I can't see him making a reputable Top 100 unless he shows significantly more power than anyone believes he has, or he goes Jose Altuve on some league and had 10% K and Walk rates while also hitting .350 with 10 home runs and 40 steals.

  13. #26
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: TJ Friedl: Ceiling, ETA, Fit

    A reputable top 100 prospect list?

    What are those, pray tell?

  14. #27
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: TJ Friedl: Ceiling, ETA, Fit

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    A reputable top 100 prospect list?

    What are those, pray tell?
    Baseball America is the clear gold standard.

    I'd say ESPN/Law is probably next on my personal list simply because other places have too many people coming and going to put any reliability in the lists (Fangraphs has had three guys in five years, BP has an ever revolving crew of 5-8 making up their lists ever since Parks left to join the Cubs).

    I'd say that BP is probably next, but I'd put it below the other two for sure.

    MLB.com/Fangraphs is probably in the conversation with BP depending on the given year and who is doing the list.

    The whole prospect scene has changed in the last handful of years. It's just hard for me to have bunches of faith beyond ESPN and BA at this point because of the ever revolving doors at the other places, and well, whatever it is that seems to happen at MLB.com with their rankings that tend to leave all of us scratching our heads.

  15. #28
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    Re: TJ Friedl: Ceiling, ETA, Fit

    The MLB.com list, MLBPipeline, as it is known, is motivated by other factors. They want future clicks every time they do a story when they can say, he's Reds #6 prospect. All the MiLB team websites are under the umbrella of MLBam, so you will notice all season that the stories that are popping up on the websites written by someone from MLB.com focus on guys that will generate clicks. Every tweet from them with a link to a story will also include that the player is x prospect. Their rankings are motivated by click potential, not baseball potential.

  16. #29
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    Re: TJ Friedl: Ceiling, ETA, Fit

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    I thought Friedl had some real high tools too. A 70 speed tool is plus. A 55 ceiling/ future hit tool (by Longenhagen on Fangraphs) and 60 defense up the middle might get him there.

    That said, I agree with your overall premise that Friedl would have to hit .300+ with acceptable power (thereby lifting his scouting tools) to sniff any top 100 lists. That's a lot to ask while skipping a level.
    Agreed.

    Tools ratings aren't static. Scouts change their opinion as they get more looks at a player and see him under more challenging circumstances. If Friedl skips a level and still puts up a solid season at the plate, scouts will re-evaluate whether their first impression of his hit tool was correct. They might bump him up to a 60-65 hit tool instead of a 55. If he shows a little bit of pop, they might bump him up to a 40-45 power tool instead of a 30. As their impression of his tools improves, so will his position on scout-centric rankings. Same goes for stat-centric rankings. If he jumps over a level and still puts together a solid season, the stats guys absolutely will take notice.

  17. #30
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    Re: TJ Friedl: Ceiling, ETA, Fit

    I consider Friedl to be greatly underrated, though it is interesting to see how Baseball America viewed him after his USA Baseball experience.

    http://www.baseballamerica.com/colle...yQrUB9Vl41b.97

    He's listed just ahead of an assortment of guys I expect to go in round 2 this year (Walls, Thomas, Burger). That is pretty high praise.

    I would like to see him start 2017 in Daytona.


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