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Thread: Phil Ervin

  1. #61
    Someday Never Comes mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Phil Ervin

    Good for Phil Ervin. I'm not backing off though. A .240ish minor league BA seems a fatal flaw and once exposed the power will go with it IMO. Hope he continues to get some time in the sun, but a couple HRs wouldn't change my plans as far as building a roster goes.

    When Ervin first debuted, I was thinking the Reds had found another Kirby Puckett. But those really low BAs since then just don't suggest success. If he's easily carved up the power and OB will go down the drain as well. I hope a light went on and those low BAs are ancient history, but I'd need to see a lot more to change my mind.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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  4. #62
    I don't want to grow up Red Raindog's Avatar
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    Re: Phil Ervin

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Servo View Post
    I've been keeping an eye on Ervin's climb back to respectability after his brutal May. At the moment, the only thing he's missing is the power.
    bump
    The older I get - the better I was

    and yes - I hate the Cardinals (Reds fan since 1958)

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  6. #63
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    Re: Phil Ervin

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Good for Phil Ervin. I'm not backing off though. A .240ish minor league BA seems a fatal flaw and once exposed the power will go with it IMO. Hope he continues to get some time in the sun, but a couple HRs wouldn't change my plans as far as building a roster goes.

    When Ervin first debuted, I was thinking the Reds had found another Kirby Puckett. But those really low BAs since then just don't suggest success. If he's easily carved up the power and OB will go down the drain as well. I hope a light went on and those low BAs are ancient history, but I'd need to see a lot more to change my mind.
    I don't understand the notion of expecting him to get carved up by MLB pitchers. He has always taken walks and has never had strike out issues. His low BA has always been driven by a low BABIP. It's not like he is one of these guy carrying a .260 minor league BA due to a near .400 BABIP while striking out 35% of the time.

    Are his infield fly ball numbers accurate? There is no way these can be right, can they?

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...=OF#battedball
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.

  7. #64
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Phil Ervin

    I think the power has been a little disappointing, but the guy has a .343 career OBP in the minors, which is more than satisfactory. I would argue that nearly 100 points of isolated discipline is very encouraging for a guy who's probably likely to continue to improve the batting average with more time and experience.

    I don't know if the power will come or not, but I tend to expect Ervin to wind up a pretty good starter for someone at some point in the next few years.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  8. #65
    Someday Never Comes mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Phil Ervin

    2014 A - .237
    2015 A+ - .242
    2015 AA - .235
    2016 AA - .239
    2016 AAA - .256
    2017 AAA - ..250

    That isn't luck or some BABIP anomaly. That is over 2000 PAs of never being able hit with regularity. I just think that's who he is. I get that there is some power and on base to go with it, but these three true outcome guys in the big leagues usually fare a lot better BA wise as a minor leaguer. The extreme example that we are all familiar with, Adam Dunn, had a .304 BA in the minors and was a big leaguer at age 21. I don't think anyone expects Ervin to be that, I just think there has to be some ability to hit with regularity for all the other stuff to translate to the big leagues. There is too much evidence that he can be retired fairly easily and once big league pitchers catch on, I just can't foresee him hitting much at all. Not average, not power, not getting on base. There are certain minimum standards that a guy has to have and I just don't think he has them. I'm not a huge batting average guy, but a guy needs to hit a little bit. I'd expect him to be a below .200 BA guy in the big leagues and I don't see that lasting in spite of some other skills.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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  10. #66
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    Re: Phil Ervin

    I've said it in the past about Ervin -- he could end up being a better big league player than he has been a minor leaguer.

    If the organization gives him a legit opportunity and he can get comfortable and relax, who knows what might happen. He's got a nice well-rounded toolset.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

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  12. #67
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    Re: Phil Ervin

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    2014 A - .237
    2015 A+ - .242
    2015 AA - .235
    2016 AA - .239
    2016 AAA - .256
    2017 AAA - ..250

    That isn't luck or some BABIP anomaly. That is over 2000 PAs of never being able hit with regularity. I just think that's who he is. I get that there is some power and on base to go with it, but these three true outcome guys in the big leagues usually fare a lot better BA wise as a minor leaguer. The extreme example that we are all familiar with, Adam Dunn, had a .304 BA in the minors and was a big leaguer at age 21. I don't think anyone expects Ervin to be that, I just think there has to be some ability to hit with regularity for all the other stuff to translate to the big leagues. There is too much evidence that he can be retired fairly easily and once big league pitchers catch on, I just can't foresee him hitting much at all. Not average, not power, not getting on base. There are certain minimum standards that a guy has to have and I just don't think he has them. I'm not a huge batting average guy, but a guy needs to hit a little bit. I'd expect him to be a below .200 BA guy in the big leagues and I don't see that lasting in spite of some other skills.
    My thing with Ervin is that while you are correct his batting average isn't luck or some BABIP anomaly, he has always had consistently low BABIPs, if I had to pick a player to suddenly have things "click", it would be a guy like Ervin. That plate discipline is there, there is power, there is speed, there are no strikeout issues. His issue is either too many flyballs or just general weak contact. To me that is something that can be fixed a lot easier than no plate discipline or huge K issues. So a guy like that you give opportunity to and you hang on to and hope some change you make to the player works and the breakout happens.

    He reminds me of Stephenson in a way. All the tools are there, but a big one (in Stephenson's case control) needs to click. You don't give up on those guys until you have exhausted all options.
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.

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  14. #68
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    Re: Phil Ervin

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    He's been hitting the ball well for several months now in Triple-A....
    I was trying to flush out your passive aggressive post. That was too factual.

  15. #69
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Phil Ervin

    Quote Originally Posted by RED VAN HOT View Post
    I was trying to flush out your passive aggressive post. That was too factual.
    Well, you won't succeed because I'm not going to post it.

  16. #70
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Phil Ervin

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Well, if my post were going to be "I said he had a little bit of pop and can run the bases pretty well, and that he's absolutely got the skillset of a 4th outfielder, right this second", I think there's quite a bit of a basis for me to say I told you so, if I were one of those crazy people who would make such a statement based off of one-and-a-half games played.
    I think a lot of folks could be good enough to be better than Kivlehan and Alcantara. The bit about a little bit of pop and running the bases well could have been said when we drafted him #1. That's not to say your comments on him were off base. To the contrary... I enjoy reading your thoughts on these guys coming up in our system and then eventually getting to see them for myself.

  17. #71
    Member klw's Avatar
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    Re: Phil Ervin

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Well, you won't succeed because I'm not going to post it.
    Isn't posting your refusal to do a passive aggressive post just about the most passive aggressive thing you can post?

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  19. #72
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Phil Ervin

    Quote Originally Posted by klw View Post
    Isn't posting your refusal to do a passive aggressive post just about the most passive aggressive thing you can post?
    No.

  20. #73
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Phil Ervin

    Doug, what is your evaluation of Ervin as a centerfielder?

  21. #74
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Phil Ervin

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    Doug, what is your evaluation of Ervin as a centerfielder?
    This is a big question I've had on my mind. In regards to the future, if Ervin is a serviceable center fielder, it will go a long way toward the Reds' rebuild.

  22. #75
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Phil Ervin

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    Doug, what is your evaluation of Ervin as a centerfielder?
    He's going to probably be below-average there, but he's not going to kill you.


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