2017 Reds 2nd round pick Stuart Fairchild, OF Wake Forest

[Tom Servo]

I don't know, it's tough for me to separate him out from previous college tweeners that Buckley tends to fall in love with. He just seems to have such a similar scouting report, and it's not just Jeff Gelalich (although I think the comp is real). It's Ryan LaMarre. It's Phil Ervin too. I just don't have confidence in Buckley's ability to identify these college OF that could pass for CF but are likely better suited in a corner, if only their bat could profile well there.

Fairchild hit more HRs in his college career than any of Gelalich, LaMarre, and Ervin, and hit more HRs this year than Gelalich hit in his entire college career.

I also fundamentally don't think LaMarre and Ervin were bad picks. They had plenty of talent, LaMarre just couldn't put it all together and Ervin is struggling with the same thing.

[Benihana]

When it's at the back of the first round and beyond, your odds of finding a starting caliber OF with any single pick are not great. He's drafted Winker (who is almost universally considered a future starter here) and Billy Hamilton. I think your expectations that the scouts should hit more than they miss on these selections is a bit unreasonable.

Winker and Hamilton were both HS players, and I think there is a big difference. It's well documented on here that I'm a much bigger advocate of targeting HS players when it comes to OF, because I think there is a lot more to project/dream on. Winker had a very well developed bat, one of the strongest in the entire draft class, and was known to be a weak defender. I loved that pick - even at the time.

Same for Hamilton (I loved the pick), who was an all-everything athlete with generational speed and athleticism, just questions about whether or not he could hit - but he could definitely play a premium defensive position and play it well above average.

The beef I have is when you select guys in the top 50 that don't seem to have an impact tool, nor do they seem to have an impact position. Guys that could pass in the middle of the diamond maybe, but likely end up in a corner. Guys who have passable offensive skills, but big questions as to whether or not they can hit enough for a corner. These guys are tweeners, and especially when you're taking a college tweener, there is not enough projection left to dream on, nor is there enough time. The guys have to perform and they have to do it soon, but they likely don't have good enough tools to do so. That's why we've seen them all washout.

And I don't think pick 38 is too low to expect/want to get someone who can be an impact player/major league starter. The odds may be slightly against it, but I like to aim high enough that you don't have to squint too hard to see it. There were guys like Drew Waters, Mark Vientos and Sam Carlson still on the board when the pick was made. Now some on here will say "you can't go all upside" or "you need to have a safe pick" or "you can't afford to pay three high schoolers" but all of that remains to be seen - I could argue that Fairchild is far from a "safe pick" or a high floor guy, as we've seen with the Gelaliches/LaMarres/Ervins, who will never really contribute to a major league team. And while I don't know the bonus demands of some of these guys, frequently they will surprise you what some of them will be willing to sign for - I bet Fairchild signs for more than at least one of Waters/Vientos/Carlson, just like Okey did last year.

[Tom Servo]

Its definitely a risk anytime you take a player where the biggest question is whether he will be able to hit with a wooden bat. As Benihana has shown, Buckley has a pattern in running into that problem.

Ervin actually excelled with a wooden bat, he tore up Cape Cod. LaMarre scuffled there like Fairchild did.

[fearofpopvol1]

I'm still not sold on this pick, but I've warmed up some to it. It just seems like when the Reds draft position players with questionable K/BB ratios, it doesn't usually end well. I do think Fairchild, on paper, looks better than some of the past guys he's being compared to though.

I think if he ends up being Drew Stubbs that would be a very good outcome. And I think I like his glove better than Stubbs (who is overrated in the field) too.

[Benihana]

Fairchild hit more HRs in his college career than any of Gelalich, LaMarre, and Ervin, and hit more HRs this year than Gelalich hit in his entire college career.

I also fundamentally don't think LaMarre and Ervin were bad picks. They had plenty of talent, LaMarre just couldn't put it all together and Ervin is struggling with the same thing.

LaMarre was a bad pick. I knew it at the time, and I said it right here. Trust me, I'm a Michigan guy and I want nothing more than to see fellow Wolverines succeed. But I also know the baseball program there very well, and I was disappointed in the pick.

To me it's pretty clear - everyone has a soft spot, or an Achillies heel, for something. For Jim Bowden (and arguably me too) it was five tool outfielders. For Krivsky it was relievers. For Dusty it was veterans. For Buckley, it's the gym rat, all around solid college tweener that doesn't have an impact tool. As I said earlier, let's hope he finally lands one that succeeds in Fairchild.

Buckley also seems to have the same for college relievers, which I expect we'll hear more than one called today.

[marcshoe]

I've been advocating upside, even if it means high risk, for the top pick, and the Reds rewarded me there. The supplemental pick seems safer, but this one is in the same high risk/high reward category. I don't mind, particularly given that the reward may include significant power. Not all power prospects thrive with the Reds, but many, such as Schebler, do. You have to take some chances in the draft, otherwise there's a danger of obtaining safe mediocrity. After some thought (and reading), I'm fine with this pick.

[fearofpopvol1]

LaMarre was a bad pick. I knew it at the time, and I said it right here. Trust me, I'm a Michigan guy and I want nothing more than to see fellow Wolverines succeed. But I also know the baseball program there very well, and I was disappointed in the pick.

To me it's pretty clear - everyone has a soft spot, or an Achillies heel, for something. For Jim Bowden (and arguably me too) it was five tool outfielders. For Krivsky it was relievers. For Dusty it was veterans. For Buckley, it's the gym rat, all around solid college tweener that doesn't have an impact tool. As I said earlier, let's hope he finally lands one that succeeds in Fairchild.

Buckley also seems to have the same for college relievers, which I expect we'll hear more than one called today.

This is what you said, in the thread you started on LaMarre after he was drafted...

Obviously, I love to get another Wolverine playing in the Reds system. While I don't love his ceiling and I'm not sure where he fits in given the presence of Stubbs and Heisey on the big league team and guys like Yorman, Sappelt, and Fellhauer in the minors, I like the fact that he's signable (after taking Grandal) and good value at #62.

All in all, he strikes me as a Twins type of pick- similiar to a Denard Span or Ben Revere.

I'm not sure that screams didn't like the pick and disappointed, especially if you were comparing him to Span. Maybe you were unsure or maybe you wanted someone else, but that's a bit different.

And in early 2011, you had LaMarre ranked as the 4th best prospect in the Reds system saying, "a runner-up for my breakout candidate of the year."

I'm not posting these to call out or anything, but I'm just trying to show that picking players is hard. Really hard. There's a lot of unknowns no matter who you pick outside of the first round.

[WrongVerb]

This is pretty eerie:

Batting Statistics Comparison
Player	         Pos	Years Range	     Level	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	IBB	SH	SF	GDP	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	R/PA	HR/PA	RBI/PA	SB/PA	BB/SO
Phil Ervin	        OF	2011-2013	NCAA	176	669	157	230	47	5	25	133	44	8	87	92	22		1	5	9	.344	.433	.541	974	0.199	0.032	0.169	0.056	0.95
Stuart Fairchild	RF	2015-2017	NCAA	174	675	145	225	52	4	27	155	46	10	86	131	26		3	10	17	.333	.423	.542	965	0.180	0.033	0.192	0.057	0.66

[Benihana]

This is what you said, in the thread you started on LaMarre after he was drafted...



I'm not sure that screams didn't like the pick and disappointed, especially if you were comparing him to Span. Maybe you were unsure or maybe you wanted someone else, but that's a bit different.

And in early 2011, you had LaMarre ranked as the 4th best prospect in the Reds system saying, "a runner-up for my breakout candidate of the year."

I'm not posting these to call out or anything, but I'm just trying to show that picking players is hard. Really hard. There's a lot of unknowns no matter who you pick outside of the first round.

That's fair. I was very excited to have a Wolverine, I just didn't love his profile. You're right, in my youthful days I was more optimistic and rosy-eyed than I am now, where I'll come out and blast a move if I don't like it right away (see Alfredo Rodriguez signing). But compare that post to any of the other new draftee posts I made in that era, and I think you'll see it was fairly negative. There are also a fair number of Ryan LaMarre discussion I've been involved in over the years on this board, and you'll see my take got increasingly negative.

"Good value" because of signability at pick 62 is also a lot different than what you should target at pick 38, especially when there is a ton of talent still on the board. But yeah, I believe at the time I wanted Yordy Cabrera with that pick, who amounted to basically nothing (currently 26 and still in AA). So I agree that picking players is hard.

[Tony Cloninger]

I said in another thread, my impression is that he's a rich man's Chris Heisey. I don't say that as a slam, but as a compliment. Heisey made a major league career out of being a 4th OFer with some pop and speed. That's what I would expect from a 2nd rounder. Anything more will be gravy.

I think you should be able to expect more than just a 4th OF as the best you can do from a pick in the first 50 rounds. However a Heisey like career is not bad. It's better than a Ryan LaMarre or Chad Mottola but you can expect more and like the earlier poster analyzed very well Buckley does not have much of a track record in these rounds. I do not know why they struggle to develop these players to more than what their potential is but they have not even developed bench players out of those picks. Or a lot of those picks. There is still time for Ervin.

[REDREAD]

DocRed posted this link in on the Day 1 draft thread.. I am going to pull a quote which will hopefully give people optimism about Fairchild:

https://baseballdraftreport.com/tag/stuart-fairchild/

I think every one of these guys has been covered by now with the exception of Stuart Fairchild. The Wake Forest center fielder has one of this year’s most well-rounded skill sets. Averages dot his card with above-averages within range (perhaps a plus for speed) depending on how much you like him. Fairchild is also one of this class’s “great approach, hasn’t really shown it” types. Everybody who has seen him has raved to me about his pitch recognition, ability to spoil good pitchers’s pitches, and general knowledge of the strike zone, but his BB/K ratios have been up (39/42 last year) and down (18/40 as a freshman, 22/37 so far this year) throughout his college career. Count me in as a believer that the results will catch up to his talent in pro ball. Fairchild has the ceiling of a first-division regular in center with a mature enough present skill set that seems too strong across the board to result in a complete flame out. In English, I like both his ceiling and floor quite a bit.

[Tom Servo]

This is pretty eerie:

Batting Statistics Comparison
Player	         Pos	Years Range	     Level	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	IBB	SH	SF	GDP	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	R/PA	HR/PA	RBI/PA	SB/PA	BB/SO
Phil Ervin	        OF	2011-2013	NCAA	176	669	157	230	47	5	25	133	44	8	87	92	22		1	5	9	.344	.433	.541	974	0.199	0.032	0.169	0.056	0.95
Stuart Fairchild	RF	2015-2017	NCAA	174	675	145	225	52	4	27	155	46	10	86	131	26		3	10	17	.333	.423	.542	965	0.180	0.033	0.192	0.057	0.66

Counterpoint: The ACC is a lot tougher than the Southern Conference.

[lollipopcurve]

To me it's pretty clear - everyone has a soft spot, or an Achillies heel, for something. For Jim Bowden (and arguably me too) it was five tool outfielders. For Krivsky it was relievers. For Dusty it was veterans. For Buckley, it's the gym rat, all around solid college tweener that doesn't have an impact tool. As I said earlier, let's hope he finally lands one that succeeds in Fairchild.

The irony here is that Fairchild is pretty good across all 5 tools. You seem to be squinting to see some kind of "Buckley pattern" overshadowing this pick, IMO.

Yes, everyone has soft spots -- including me (two-way players) and you. You're all negative on the Phil Ervin pick, but do you remember the toolsy OF you really wanted that year? I do, because we debated him vs Ervin.

Let's see how Fairchild plays out before we judge him.

[WrongVerb]

Counterpoint: The ACC is a lot tougher than the Southern Conference.

Fair enough. Which should make us question the Ervin pick even more. If those are good ACC numbers, then they're pedestrian for the Southern Conference.

I'll note but not criticize the Reds for selecting Ervin 5 picks before Aaron Judge.

[Benihana]

The irony here is that Fairchild is pretty good across all 5 tools. You seem to be squinting to see some kind of "Buckley pattern" overshadowing this pick, IMO.

Yes, everyone has soft spots -- including me (two-way players) and you. You're all negative on the Phil Ervin pick, but do you remember the toolsy OF you really wanted that year? I do, because we debated him vs Ervin.

Let's see how Fairchild plays out before we judge him.

Austin Wilson? Loved that guy. Too bad he went to Stanford and they ruined his swing, like they do with basically everyone.

Because you asked, I went back and looked at what I posted the day we drafted Phil Ervin. Kinda eerie, if you ask me:

Here we go...

The "experts" seem to love him. Both Sickels and Callis list him as one of their favorite players. The anchor on MLB Network said he was his absolute favorite player in this draft, comparing his defense to Denard Span and his swing to Andrew McCutcheon.

He is also a great athlete with phenomenal bat speed.

That all sounds great.

What scares me is his lack of any great tool - the fact that he is a very good "all-around" player. That gives me nightmares of Ryan LaMarre. I hope they're just that - nightmares, and not reality. I've also compared him to an OF version of Rickie Weeks. Hopefully he has better success.