2017 Reds 2nd round pick Stuart Fairchild, OF Wake Forest

[fearofpopvol1]

That's fair. I was very excited to have a Wolverine, I just didn't love his profile. You're right, in my youthful days I was more optimistic and rosy-eyed than I am now, where I'll come out and blast a move if I don't like it right away (see Alfredo Rodriguez signing). But compare that post to any of the other new draftee posts I made in that era, and I think you'll see it was fairly negative. There are also a fair number of Ryan LaMarre discussion I've been involved in over the years on this board, and you'll see my take got increasingly negative.

"Good value" because of signability at pick 62 is also a lot different than what you should target at pick 38, especially when there is a ton of talent still on the board. But yeah, I believe at the time I wanted Yordy Cabrera with that pick, who amounted to basically nothing (currently 26 and still in AA). So I agree that picking players is hard.

I totally get it. I used to feel that way too. It's hard. And I like buckley evaluating pitchers better than I do positional players. He's certainly had more hits there i think. He's got to "buck" the trend with eventually, right?

[dougdirt]

I totally get it. I used to feel that way too. It's hard. And I like buckley evaluating pitchers better than I do positional players. He's certainly had more hits there i think. He's got to "buck" the trend with eventually, right?

Drew Stubbs, Devin Mesoraco, Todd Frazier, Yonder Alonso, Yasmani Grandal, Zack Cozart, Billy Hamilton.

And it's not like the minors don't have some pretty darn good hitting prospects in them right now, either.

[fearofpopvol1]

Drew Stubbs, Devin Mesoraco, Todd Frazier, Yonder Alonso, Yasmani Grandal, Zack Cozart, Billy Hamilton.

And it's not like the minors don't have some pretty darn good hitting prospects in them right now, either.

It's alright, I just don't think that's a great collection of hitters when you consider how high some of these guys were drafted. But further, I was referencing this post:

I don't know, it's tough for me to separate him out from previous college tweeners that Buckley tends to fall in love with. He just seems to have such a similar scouting report, and it's not just Jeff Gelalich (although I think the comp is real). It's Ryan LaMarre. It's Phil Ervin too. I just don't have confidence in Buckley's ability to identify these college OF that could pass for CF but are likely better suited in a corner, if only their bat could profile well there.

So many people are dismissing the Gelalich comparison as unfair, because they're thinking of the colossal minor league bust Gelalich, and not Gelalich at the time he was drafted. Remember, he was a sandwich round pick, and ranked as a top 50 draft prospect at the time by Keith Law. In fact, check out his scouting report here:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1...t-and-analysis

Or Ryan LaMarre here:

https://prospectjunkies.com/2010/05/...outing-report/

Or Phil Ervin here:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1...1st-round-pick

I hope Buckley bucks the trend, but he has a pretty terrible track record when it comes to selecting college OF, as well as second round picks in general. In fact, check out this brief cross reference of comps:


COLLEGE OF (in the first 5 rounds- since 2010)
Jeff Gelalich
Ryan LaMarre
Phil Ervin
Brodie Greene

SECOND ROUND PICKS (since 2010)
Chris Okey
Ryan LaMarre
Taylor Sparks
KJ Franklin
Tanner Rahier
Gabriel Rosa
Tony Santillan

[dougdirt]

I understand that you were referencing that post, but the overall point remains - Buckley's actually been pretty good at picking position guys. Missing that superstar hitter, but I'd bet he's done much better at finding average to better position guys than most over his career with the Reds. I just think too many people have unrealistic expectations of what the odds actually suggest you're supposed to get in the draft.

[Tom Servo]

I just think too many people have unrealistic expectations of what the odds actually suggest you're supposed to get in the draft.

You're supposed to get three guaranteed 2.0 WAR-or-better guys on Day 1, Doug. Duh.

[M2]

Unconscious knowledge: probably anybody the Reds drafted in the 2nd round is doomed. That it's a college OF who could sell some jeans only increases the doom factor.

[fearofpopvol1]

I understand that you were referencing that post, but the overall point remains - Buckley's actually been pretty good at picking position guys. Missing that superstar hitter, but I'd bet he's done much better at finding average to better position guys than most over his career with the Reds. I just think too many people have unrealistic expectations of what the odds actually suggest you're supposed to get in the draft.

My expectations are realistic, actually. Not sure if you're referring to me or others. If you saw, I mentioned a few posts above that picking players in the draft is really hard. I know there are going to be misses. I've personally liked his pitching selections better in the later rounds than his position players though. But overall, I really don't have beef with Buckley. I sometimes disagree with who he picks but I think he's quite capable.

[M2]

Drew Stubbs, Devin Mesoraco, Todd Frazier, Yonder Alonso, Yasmani Grandal, Zack Cozart, Billy Hamilton.

And it's not like the minors don't have some pretty darn good hitting prospects in them right now, either.

Over the course of 11 drafts, that's not exactly a great list.

In only five years DeJon Watson and Kasey McKeon drafted Adam Dunn, Austin Kearns, Ben Broussard, Chris Denorifa and Joey Votto. I'd argue that's a better list and we're not even considering if they'd have signed Nick Markakis either of the two times they picked him.

I'm not anti-Buckley by any means. Just saying your argument there could serve as a prosecution just as well as a defense.

[corkedbat]

May just be me , but seems like his front foot starts to stride into the ball a half beat to early and he hesitates. Would think it would throw him off balance,but results seem fine.

[Kc61]

So much of this turns on defense.

If Fairchild plays CF well enough to start, he has a good chance.

If Fairchild is realistically a corner man, it gets much tougher for him. Much more is expected offensively in the corners.

I hope he shows well in CF when he begins pro ball. Sounds like he handled it well in college.

[RedlegJake]

KC nails it imo. If he can play a bit above average CF he is valuable if he stays above .700, not too difficult a bar. If he has to move to the corners though he needs another 100 points of OPS to really be more than a 4th OFer,

[M2]

KC nails it imo. If he can play a bit above average CF he is valuable if he stays above .700, not too difficult a bar.

Same rule applied to Phil Ervin, Jeff Gelalich, Gabriel Rosa, Ryan LaMarre, Brodie Greene and B.J. Szymanski. Drew Stubbs barely meets that criteria.

[podgejeff_]

I understand that you were referencing that post, but the overall point remains - Buckley's actually been pretty good at picking position guys. Missing that superstar hitter, but I'd bet he's done much better at finding average to better position guys than most over his career with the Reds. I just think too many people have unrealistic expectations of what the odds actually suggest you're supposed to get in the draft.

I don't think you can realistically depend on any pick to become a superstar. There's just way too much that can go wrong. A guy hitting his ceiling and that ceiling being high enough to be a superstar almost seems like random luck. About the best thing you can do is draft guys with that kind of ceiling, try to develop them, and hope for the best. So much has to go right in their development for that to happen in a sport where so much can, and usually does, go wrong.

In the minors nobody thought Votto would become one of the greatest hitters alive. At the time people thought Bailey would probably be better than Cueto and Bruce would have been the star. For that matter nobody expected Todd Frazier to be an All-Star, well, ever. And we can see that happening with Zack Cozart right now well after he turned 30. At the time of the Devin Mesoraco pick people thought that it was insane to draft a HS catcher.

I really can't fault Buckley for not finding a perennial all-star. A lot of his guys have become quite good major leaguers, they just missed that one thing that would make them huge. Hamilton just can't get enough hits. Until this year Alonso's power was missing. Grandal has had health issues. If Mesoraco continued his 2014 he'd be one of the more valuable players in the game, but yet again health. None of these were failed picks, they just didn't hit their perceived ceilings. Which were possibly never right to begin with.

[Benihana]

Same rule applied to Phil Ervin, Jeff Gelalich, Gabriel Rosa, Ryan LaMarre, Brodie Greene and B.J. Szymanski. Drew Stubbs barely meets that criteria.

Don't forget Dave Sappelt, Beau Amaral, and Josh Fellhauer.

[RedlegJake]

And what I'd say to Sappelt, Amaral, Fellhauer, Ervin, Gelalich, Rosa, Stubbs, LaMarre, Green and Syzmanski is - his name is Stuart Fairchild. Because those guys failed doesn't mean he will fail. I haven't seen one convincing thing arguing that he will flop that is statistical. He's a second round pick - ergo he'll fail. The Reds have tried a lot of kids as CFers and only 1, Stubbs, had marginal success - ergo he'll fail. Also, the "professional" keyboard scouts on RedsZone (myself included) preferred guys named Lutz or Waters, making the Fairchild pick an automatic disappointment. Ergo, he'll fail. That's three things he has going against him. Good thing is, none of them are high tight fastballs, or hammer curves.

The thing we tend to ignore is that even if he becomes a 4th OFer in the majors he's beat the odds. Of course second round picks seem to fail a lot - because they do, period, across all of baseball. But the failure of any of the above named guys has nothing, nothing whatever to do with whether Stuart Fairchild fails.

When I look at his college numbers I see one caution primarily - his Cape Cod season wasn't a success by any standard. He hit a helluva lot better in the Ripken League the year before. He also appears to have sold out some contact/discipline for power in his senior year. Still, his strikeout to walk rate is 1.52/1. His isoD is .90, isoP is .209. All those numbers are good, solid. Not elite level but fitting for where he was picked. Let's face it, though, he has to line up behind Friedl, Trammell and Beltre (and possibly White) in the CF queue. He is depth at CF prospect-wise. Advantage Reds - when Hamilton leaves there should be a quality replacement waiting in house. I doubt he beats out all those guys, especially Friedl and/or Trammell but a true CF backup that can hit a little bit wouldn't be a bad outcome. It's something the Reds don't have at the moment. If Fairchild becomes Jarrod Dyson to Tramell's Lorenzo Cain I'd call that a winning scenario.