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Thread: Reds Third Round Pick Jacob Heatherly

  1. #16
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    Re: Reds Third Round Pick Jacob Heatherly

    That I can maybe believe. Maybe he is working more on secondary stuff, so his control appears worse or maybe he was getting squeezed (this I kind of doubt, but it's possible).

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  4. #17
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Third Round Pick Jacob Heatherly

    Here's what I'm suggesting - the report's you're seeing are based on what he showed coming into the year, not ones written after his senior season. Guys with good command aren't walking 39 batters in 69.2 innings against high schoolers. MacKenzie Gore, for example, walked 5 batters with 159 strikeouts this season in high school. Now, I understand we are talking about arguably the top pitcher in the draft versus a 3rd rounder, but command is command, and 39 walks ain't it.

  5. #18
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    Re: Reds Third Round Pick Jacob Heatherly

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Here's what I'm suggesting - the report's you're seeing are based on what he showed coming into the year, not ones written after his senior season. Guys with good command aren't walking 39 batters in 69.2 innings against high schoolers. MacKenzie Gore, for example, walked 5 batters with 159 strikeouts this season in high school. Now, I understand we are talking about arguably the top pitcher in the draft versus a 3rd rounder, but command is command, and 39 walks ain't it.
    I do not really buy that though.
    Here are his HS stats (if you have a better place, we can use that)
    http://www.maxpreps.com/athlete/jaco...ball-stats.htm

    He pitched roughly the same amount of innings every year.
    Senior : 39 BB , 69IP
    Junior: 17 BB, 53 IP
    Sophomore: 31 BB, 56 IP

    By your reasoning (which is sound, I am not saying it is wrong), the numbers say he did not have command as a sophomore either. So why would a stat analysis overweigh his junior year?

    We are dealing with small samples here.
    His Junior ratio was about 2.9 BB per 9 innings, so if we project him out to 69 IP as a junior, that means (17/53) * 16 = 5 more walks at that pace.
    So his projected Jr numbers for 69 IP would be 22 walks.

    So his senior year, he walked 39-22 = 17 walks more.
    Is that really enough evidence, 17 walks over a high school season.. to say the guy has bad command as opposed to excellent command?
    I don't think so. This is why they have scouts look at kids.
    Is it possible that his outings in front of scouts was better than typical and the Reds (and MLB.com, etc) overrated him? Yes.

    But I am not going to look at these high school numbers and be concerned. I can understand why someone would, but 17 more mistakes (walks) is not going to worry me. The guy went 10-1 with a 1.11 ERA. Now, I know W-L is meaningless, but if the guy is consistently winning and only giving up 1 run per 9 innings, he is probably less worried about maximizing his BB/9 stat. He walks a guy, so what, he blows away the next guy. Now obviously, the pros are tougher, he will have to buckle down more on that, but I really doubt there are many high school pitchers worried about their BB/9. They want to win the game.
    Last edited by REDREAD; 06-20-2017 at 05:06 PM.
    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  6. #19
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    Re: Reds Third Round Pick Jacob Heatherly

    The main scouting done on him probably has nothing to do with high school baseball. You'd need to look at his summer stats to know what the scouts were talking about in the article I'd imagine.

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    REDREAD (06-20-2017)

  8. #20
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Third Round Pick Jacob Heatherly

    17 more walks, when 22 was the baseline, is almost double. So, yes, that's a very significant increase that would have changed the outcome.

    Now, if you want to say he's got the potential for command, I'm all ears. But to suggest he's got it now, is crazy talk. He doesn't and the stats show it. High school guys had, roughly, a Joey Votto walk rate against him this past high school season.

  9. #21
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    Re: Reds Third Round Pick Jacob Heatherly

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    17 more walks, when 22 was the baseline, is almost double. So, yes, that's a very significant increase that would have changed the outcome.

    Now, if you want to say he's got the potential for command, I'm all ears. But to suggest he's got it now, is crazy talk. He doesn't and the stats show it. High school guys had, roughly, a Joey Votto walk rate against him this past high school season.
    His "batting average against" his senior year offset the walk increase, making his "OBP against" roughly the same (257 vs 265)
    The whole reason we worry about walks is because we want to minimize baserunners.
    His "batting average against" plummeted from 173 as a jr to 103 as a senior.
    His Ks jumped from 79 to 116 as a senior (although more innings as a senior)
    If he was learning how to put away hitters more effectively , but allowed twice the walks as part of the process, I am ok with that. He is a work in progress.
    Still not worried about his command if the scouts say it ok.

    He simply needs to be tested against tougher competition before we have a true read on what he is.. I agree on that.
    But his high school stats don't carry much weight for me, IMO.
    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  10. #22
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    Re: Reds Third Round Pick Jacob Heatherly

    I don't really care about the high school stats, and I'm a fan of the pick.

    But I've got a big problem saying a guy has good command, much less good control, when they walked 5 high school batters per 9 innings pitched as a senior. That's poor control, much less command.

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  12. #23
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    Re: Reds Third Round Pick Jacob Heatherly

    Maybe he has good command, but the umpires are blind. I know in my area hiring blind umpires is pretty much standard practice.

  13. #24
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    Re: Reds Third Round Pick Jacob Heatherly


    https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/hunt...tional-league/
    Reds third-rounder Jacob Heatherly sat 90-92 and commanded that pitch as well as his average curveball and changeup. He lacks any physical projection and, except for perhaps a bit of breaking-ball and changeup progression from pro reps and instruction, the cement is largely dry on his stuff. Realistically, Heatherly projects as a No. 4 or 5 starter, but his ceiling will be dictated by the level of command hes able to develop. Hes advanced in that regard and could move quickly. Heatherly, who turned 19 in May, signed for $1 million.

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    Re: Reds Third Round Pick Jacob Heatherly

    That third guy he faced should probably prepare for a career in something other than sports. Hard to tell on the second guy since he didn't bother to swing. Thanks for posting the video!

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    Re: Reds Third Round Pick Jacob Heatherly

    Looked like some pretty nice breaking balls to me. I can understand the comment that he lacks physical projection. He does look on the stout side. I have a question, though. To what extent can one conclude that the cement is dry on his stuff based on the fact that he is filled out physically?

  17. #27
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    Re: Reds Third Round Pick Jacob Heatherly

    Quote Originally Posted by RED VAN HOT View Post
    Looked like some pretty nice breaking balls to me. I can understand the comment that he lacks physical projection. He does look on the stout side. I have a question, though. To what extent can one conclude that the cement is dry on his stuff based on the fact that he is filled out physically?
    Both Longenhagen and scouting reports have stated how his delivery and body projection are polished/ maxed out.

    Which is fine, as long as he can throw strikes at a very solid level.

    That'll play-- four a southpaw especially.

  18. #28
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    Re: Reds Third Round Pick Jacob Heatherly

    Quote Originally Posted by Boston Red View Post
    That third guy he faced should probably prepare for a career in something other than sports. Hard to tell on the second guy since he didn't bother to swing. Thanks for posting the video!
    That third guy he faced is 17-years-old....

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    Re: Reds Third Round Pick Jacob Heatherly

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    That third guy he faced is 17-years-old....
    Isn't Heatherly 18?

  20. #30
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    Re: Reds Third Round Pick Jacob Heatherly

    Quote Originally Posted by Boston Red View Post
    Isn't Heatherly 18?
    No, he's 19.


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