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Thread: Hurricane Harvey

  1. #31
    Overton Window Breaker WrongVerb's Avatar
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    Re: Hurricane Harvey

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    The left wing media is going nuts over this. No question about it. Our own resident meteorologist put it pretty well:
    Thank you, and I stand by what I put in that post. But that story that Dom posted quoted Michael Mann, who is probably THE leading American expert in global climate change, so I'll stand by what he says as well. He sort of says what I said, but then extends it by pointing out the general stagnation of weather patterns due to climate change, and how that's keeping the hurricane relatively stationary.
    Freedom is not worth having if it does not include the freedom to make mistakes. -- Mahatma Gandhi

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  3. #32
    Overton Window Breaker WrongVerb's Avatar
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    Re: Hurricane Harvey

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    There's certainly not a pattern of hurricanes like this occuring:



    http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/25/us/hur...vey/index.html
    There were 4 major hurricanes (1 cat-3, 2 cat-4, 1 cat-5) in the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season.

    There were 2 major hurricanes (1 cat-3, 1 cat-4) in the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season.

    Just because hurricanes don't strike the US doesn't mean they aren't forming. The US covers around 3% of the earth's total surface, and many major hurricanes (or typhoons as they're called in the western Pacific and Indian oceans) form every year. The number has been trending upwards as well.
    Freedom is not worth having if it does not include the freedom to make mistakes. -- Mahatma Gandhi

  4. #33
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Hurricane Harvey

    Quote Originally Posted by WrongVerb View Post
    There were 4 major hurricanes (1 cat-3, 2 cat-4, 1 cat-5) in the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season.

    There were 2 major hurricanes (1 cat-3, 1 cat-4) in the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season.

    Just because hurricanes don't strike the US doesn't mean they aren't forming. The US covers around 3% of the earth's total surface, and many major hurricanes (or typhoons as they're called in the western Pacific and Indian oceans) form every year. The number has been trending upwards as well.
    There were 3 major hurricanes in 2000

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_A...rricane_season

    This doesn't tell us much.

  5. #34
    SERP Emeritus paintmered's Avatar
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    Re: Hurricane Harvey

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    There were 3 major hurricanes in 2000

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_A...rricane_season

    This doesn't tell us much.
    A better methodology might be to look at the average number of hurricanes per year in decade intervals to smooth out some of the year-to-year variance.
    All models are wrong. Some of them are useful.

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  7. #35
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Hurricane Harvey

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    It's sad that science is something that should be discussed on a political board.
    Science is a liar.... sometimes.

    (link - NSFW because of some adult theme language)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zgk8UdV7GQ0

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  9. #36
    Potential Lunch Winner Dom Heffner's Avatar
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    Re: Hurricane Harvey

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    The left wing media is going nuts over this. No question about it. Our own resident meteorologist put it pretty well:
    Oh yes. This is a media problem.

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  11. #37
    SERP Emeritus paintmered's Avatar
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    Re: Hurricane Harvey

    Quote Originally Posted by paintmered View Post
    A better methodology might be to look at the average number of hurricanes per year in decade intervals to smooth out some of the year-to-year variance.
    Okay, five minutes with Google and Excel later, and the number of annual named Atlantic storms, hurricanes and strong hurricanes have all increased from 1860 to 2016, using a linear regression of 10-year rolling averages. The annual number of named storms has effectively doubled during that time.

    http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/E11.html to see for yourself.
    Last edited by paintmered; 08-29-2017 at 08:45 PM.
    All models are wrong. Some of them are useful.

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  13. #38
    Overton Window Breaker WrongVerb's Avatar
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    Re: Hurricane Harvey

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    It's sad that science is something that should be discussed on a political board.
    Politics gives people certainty in a tribal sort of way. The method of science shows that our conclusions about the world aren't all that certain.
    Freedom is not worth having if it does not include the freedom to make mistakes. -- Mahatma Gandhi

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  15. #39
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Hurricane Harvey

    Quote Originally Posted by paintmered View Post
    Okay, five minutes with Google and Excel later, and the number of annual named Atlantic storms, hurricanes and strong hurricanes have all increased from 1860 to 2016, using a linear regression of 10-year rolling averages. The annual number of named storms has effectively doubled during that time.

    http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/E11.html to see for yourself.
    In 2005 the global warming folks warned us that this was going to be the new normal and it turned out to be an outlier. Glad I didn't buy the rhetoric then and I'm not buying it now.

    The summary statement is posted at the World Meteorological Organization web site, and the ten main points are presented below. Hurricane experts are divided on to what degree global warming has affected the number and intensity of hurricanes, and a recent consensus statement by 125 hurricane scientists (see below) concluded: Though there is evidence both for and against the existence of a detectable anthropogenic signal in the tropical cyclone climate record to date, no firm conclusion can be made on this point.

    --Tropical cyclone wind-speed monitoring has changed dramatically over the last few decades, leading to difficulties in determining accurate trends.

    -- No individual tropical cyclone can be directly attributed to climate change.
    https://www.wunderground.com/education/webster.asp

  16. #40
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: Hurricane Harvey

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    In 2005 the global warming folks warned us that this was going to be the new normal and it turned out to be an outlier. Glad I didn't buy the rhetoric then and I'm not buying it now.



    https://www.wunderground.com/education/webster.asp
    From the same article (although I'm sure you saw them, just decided to leave it out):

    It is likely that some increase in tropical cyclone peak wind-speed and rainfall will occur if the climate continues to warm. Model studies and theory project a 3-5% increase in wind-speed per degree Celsius increase of tropical sea surface temperatures.
    If the projected rise in sea level due to global warming occurs, then the vulnerability to tropical cyclone storm surge flooding would increase
    Broken news: sea levels are rising because of global warming.
    What would you say.....ya do here?

  17. #41
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Hurricane Harvey

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    From the same article (although I'm sure you saw them, just decided to leave it out):





    Broken news: sea levels are rising because of global warming.
    I included the link so everything is there. If you want to make a point out of a 3-5% increase in wind speed, fine. Make it. Ditto for storm surge. Houston's had a lot of problems with this hurricane but storm surge isn't one of them

  18. #42
    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
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    Re: Hurricane Harvey

    They say that they are going to have to flood some neighborhoods there in order to save the dama.

    http://projects.propublica.org/graph...ent=1504049067
    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    I was wrong
    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    Chip is right

  19. #43
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: Hurricane Harvey

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    I included the link so everything is there. If you want to make a point out of a 3-5% increase in wind speed, fine. Make it. Ditto for storm surge. Houston's had a lot of problems with this hurricane but storm surge isn't one of them
    You were making an overall point about tropical storms in general. They have increase as paintmered showed and it has coincided with the sea temps increasing. Houston is just another example of a tropical storm causing flooding.
    What would you say.....ya do here?

  20. #44
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Hurricane Harvey

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    You were making an overall point about tropical storms in general. They have increase as paintmered showed and it has coincided with the sea temps increasing. Houston is just another example of a tropical storm causing flooding.
    Tropical storms often times cause flooding. That's what they do. Did you think that was a news flash to anyone? My overall point was this:

    Though there is evidence both for and against the existence of a detectable anthropogenic signal in the tropical cyclone climate record to date, no firm conclusion can be made on this point.

  21. #45
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: Hurricane Harvey

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    Tropical storms often times cause flooding. That's what they do. Did you think that was a news flash to anyone? My overall point was this:
    Even if you are correct global warming is not causing an increase in tropical storms - that quote does nothing to back your opinion up.
    What would you say.....ya do here?


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