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Thread: Hurricane Harvey

  1. #91
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Hurricane Harvey

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Only when the warnings prove to be 100% correct AND confirm the preconceived ideas.
    So I guess you didn't want to answer the question and contribute to the discussion? Instead you opted for a personal slam.


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  3. #92
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    Re: Hurricane Harvey

    Well, my family and I lived through Harvey. It was not fun. We tried to ride it out, which in retrospect, was a mistake. Had to be boated out of our house to a huge dump truck to a bus to another bus to a shelter. People have been exceedingly helpful around here. We lost 2 cars, our air conditioning, all of the duct work, some damage to the skirting of the mobile home, And the internet was down for over a week.Miraculously, the water did not get inside the house. There are five steps leading up to our deck, and the water was halfway up the fifth step by the time we were evacuated. It was still raining, and I have no idea why the water didn't get in. About an inch and a half away by the water line left behind. We had to leave our 2 dogs behind. But, they survived as well. Scared and skittish, but otherwise healthy. It may seem strange to say, but I feel lucky. Most folks in this neighborhood came out much worse than we did. So, everyone is starting to pick up the pieces. Life moves on. Here is a picture that someone sent us that they saw on NBC television. It seems that my little grandson was one of the faces of the flood. If you ever want to make the news, stand next to a cute baby. That's me (in my Reds' cap) lifting my grandson off of the dump truck. Plenty of cleanup still to go.

    Attachment 12802

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  5. #93
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    Re: Hurricane Harvey

    If you're all alive and well and water didn't get in the house, I don't think it's strange at all that you feel lucky. Glad you made it through RELATIVELY unscathed, and congrats on your and your grandson's newfound stardom!

  6. #94
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    Re: Hurricane Harvey

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    I use my own judgment in taking warnings seriously. I didn't believe the warnings in the 70s that we'd be out of oil by 2000. I didn't worry that all hell was going to break loose when Y2K happened. I didn't believe the 2012 doomsday stuff either.
    Right, that's what I'm getting at. Your own judgement is particular to you. So if you and I are having a discussion, I'm interested in finding out what goes into your judgement.

    If I'm to understand you correctly; you "believe" in global warming, but do not "believe" certain specific predicted consequences would come to fruition. Is that accurate?

    So what is it that makes the case for Global Warming as a whole compelling, but the specific consequences not? I'm not saying you're incorrect, just trying to figure out which information has persuaded you.
    Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeRed27 View Post
    Honest I can't say it any better than Hoosier Red did in his post, he sums it up basically perfectly.

  7. #95
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    Re: Hurricane Harvey

    A little update from Texas, we have an emergency "Rainy Day" fund that has $10 billion in it; our Governor announced that Texas will not be spending a dime of it for Harvey relief. Our legislature is not scheduled to meet again until Jan. 2019 and our very conservative/Christian Gov. Abbott says he will not call a special session to consider relief funding and thus expects the feds to pick up the entire tab. He did call a special session last month to pass a transgender bathroom law.

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  9. #96
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    Re: Hurricane Harvey

    Quote Originally Posted by Hoosier Red View Post
    Right, that's what I'm getting at. Your own judgement is particular to you. So if you and I are having a discussion, I'm interested in finding out what goes into your judgement.

    If I'm to understand you correctly; you "believe" in global warming, but do not "believe" certain specific predicted consequences would come to fruition. Is that accurate?

    So what is it that makes the case for Global Warming as a whole compelling, but the specific consequences not? I'm not saying you're incorrect, just trying to figure out which information has persuaded you.
    I'm not getting into my methodology with you. I'mnot interested in picking apart my methodology.

    I'm here to talk about hurricanes. Did you believe that the 2005 season would soon become the norm? Let's start there. You haven't even chimed in on your opinion yet you're anxious to break down my thought process

  10. #97
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    Re: Hurricane Harvey

    Quote Originally Posted by jimbroznan View Post
    expects the feds to pick up the entire tab
    Smart move if he can pull it off.

  11. #98
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    Re: Hurricane Harvey

    "It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so." -- Mark Twain
    Our planet is a lonely speck in the great enveloping cosmic dark. In our obscurity, in all this vastness, there is no hint that help will come from elsewhere to save us from ourselves. -- Carl Sagan (Pale Blue Dot)

  12. #99
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Hurricane Harvey

    Quote Originally Posted by jimbroznan View Post
    A little update from Texas, we have an emergency "Rainy Day" fund that has $10 billion in it; our Governor announced that Texas will not be spending a dime of it for Harvey relief. Our legislature is not scheduled to meet again until Jan. 2019 and our very conservative/Christian Gov. Abbott says he will not call a special session to consider relief funding and thus expects the feds to pick up the entire tab. He did call a special session last month to pass a transgender bathroom law.
    Interesting. I'm sure the MODs will insist that this is discussed in the political section so I won't address it here. If you don't already, you can get posting privileges for that forum by clicking on it.

  13. #100
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    Re: Hurricane Harvey

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    I'm not getting into my methodology with you. I'mnot interested in picking apart my methodology.

    I'm here to talk about hurricanes. Did you believe that the 2005 season would soon become the norm? Let's start there. You haven't even chimed in on your opinion yet you're anxious to break down my thought process
    Indeed. I'm far more interested in discussing how people think and how they come to conclusions than what their hot take opinion is. Guilty as charged.
    In all honesty, I don't remember what I thought in 2005. With the benefit of hindsight, I'd like to think that I'd be skeptical of any prediction that every year moving forward would be worse than before.
    I also try to remember that "the norm" can mean different things geologically than it's generally understood popularly. If 2005 was the worst year for hurricanes ever, then it might be 100x more likely moving forward that we'd see another 2005, but that still may not be likely in any given year.

    I think that's one of the problems with communicating probabilities. If climate change has increase our chances of Category 4+ hurricanes hitting the US from 1% to 10%, that's a significant impact. We've become 10 X more likely to be hit by major storms. But it's still not likely to happen. It may happen 10% of the years, but that means 90% of the time it won't, and with wildly random distributions.

    What I try to stay away from are sweeping statements like "Global Warming folks warned us that this was going to be the new normal" because 1) it likely overstates the degree to which these things were being predicted and 2)It groups all "global warming folks" in one big boat. How would you distinguish yourself as someone who believes in climate change from "global warming folks".

    *I'm making up the 1% to 10% for rhetorical impact. I have no idea what the probabilities are or how climate change has actually impacted them.
    Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeRed27 View Post
    Honest I can't say it any better than Hoosier Red did in his post, he sums it up basically perfectly.

  14. #101
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Hurricane Harvey

    Quote Originally Posted by Hoosier Red View Post
    Indeed. I'm far more interested in discussing how people think and how they come to conclusions than what their hot take opinion is. Guilty as charged.
    In all honesty, I don't remember what I thought in 2005. With the benefit of hindsight, I'd like to think that I'd be skeptical of any prediction that every year moving forward would be worse than before.
    I also try to remember that "the norm" can mean different things geologically than it's generally understood popularly. If 2005 was the worst year for hurricanes ever, then it might be 100x more likely moving forward that we'd see another 2005, but that still may not be likely in any given year.

    I think that's one of the problems with communicating probabilities. If climate change has increase our chances of Category 4+ hurricanes hitting the US from 1% to 10%, that's a significant impact. We've become 10 X more likely to be hit by major storms. But it's still not likely to happen. It may happen 10% of the years, but that means 90% of the time it won't, and with wildly random distributions.

    What I try to stay away from are sweeping statements like "Global Warming folks warned us that this was going to be the new normal" because 1) it likely overstates the degree to which these things were being predicted and 2)It groups all "global warming folks" in one big boat. How would you distinguish yourself as someone who believes in climate change from "global warming folks".

    *I'm making up the 1% to 10% for rhetorical impact. I have no idea what the probabilities are or how climate change has actually impacted them.
    Fine. Let's add a word. "Some" global warming folks...Works for me

  15. #102
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    Re: Hurricane Harvey

    Quote Originally Posted by WrongVerb View Post
    There have been stronger hurricanes, but they say the flooding is historic:

    Attachment 12780
    Attachment 12781
    This is my neck of the woods. I am no more than 5 minutes away from here. Water, water everywhere. But not a drop to drink.

  16. #103
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    Re: Hurricane Harvey

    In the past 15 years, the amount of concrete on the ground has increased 25% in the Houston metropolitan area. There is simply a lot less ground to soak up the rain, and it has to go somewhere. That is a big driver of the flooding around here, or so the flood control people are telling us.

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  18. #104
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    Re: Hurricane Harvey

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    Fine. Let's add a word. "Some" global warming folks...Works for me
    That's reasonable. Though still not particularly helpful if we're trying to establish the credibility or lack thereof regarding certain predictions.

    Some people said that 2005 was going to become the new norm, some are saying that this is the new norm.
    Other than the fact you didn't believe those in 2005 and don't believe those who believe it now, there's really not a lot of connection there. We don't know who in the 2005 group is making the same claim this year.

    Outside of simply opposing your viewpoint(an admittedly tempting rationale ) I have little to base my opinion on. That's why I'm always interested in the information and your framework more than the opinion.
    You don't believe those espousing the view now, okay fine. You told us that 20 posts ago. I'm asking out of genuine interest in how you formed that opinion.

    Of course if you don't care to expound on the rationale, fine by me. Some people have an opinion based on their gut reaction and that works for them.
    But I see you as an open minded sort who's liable to be persuaded by evidence if its compelling enough. So I'm always interested in what sort of information is likely to persuade you.
    Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeRed27 View Post
    Honest I can't say it any better than Hoosier Red did in his post, he sums it up basically perfectly.

  19. #105
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Hurricane Harvey

    Quote Originally Posted by texasdave View Post
    In the past 15 years, the amount of concrete on the ground has increased 25% in the Houston metropolitan area. There is simply a lot less ground to soak up the rain, and it has to go somewhere. That is a big driver of the flooding around here, or so the flood control people are telling us.
    Exactly, plus the low lying land has been eaten up without any super strong growth measures and that adds to insufficient run off as well

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