Turn Off Ads?
Page 3 of 3 FirstFirst 123
Results 31 to 32 of 32

Thread: Arizona Fall League 2017

  1. #31
    Winning is fun.
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
    Location
    Urbana, OH
    Posts
    1,431

    Re: Arizona Fall League 2017

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    In that scenario Senzel is essentially replacing Cozart. Senzel will have to have a pretty strong rookie year for the Reds to break even there offensively. Using this year as a baseline adding Senzel as a replacement for Cozart or even Gennett probably isn't more than a break-even for the team's offense. SS will take a definite drop on the defensive side and I think Suarez has a chance to be pretty good over there in time. Senzel is probably a defensive downgrade from Suarez at 3B as well. Given that Gennett probably experiences a decent sized offensive drop at 2B, the Reds offense and defense are likely to take significant steps back in 2018. The Reds need to make fairly significant improvements on the pitching side just to maintain the 70ish win team that they are now.

    They can't be content with some late season promise from Romano, Stephenson, Mahle and Castillo while depending on one of the sore armed dudes to fill in. They need a pitcher who is better than anyone they've had since Cueto left town for any kind of real move up the standings to occur IMO.

    I view Herrera the same way I view Bailey and Disco. I'm making my plans without him. If he shows up, that's a good thing.
    You have to price in the 200-250 less at bats that Cozart will get due to injury. Meaning, will Senzel recreate Cozarts wRC+ of 143? Probably not. But can 650 PAs of Senzel come close to replacing roughly 450-500 (at best) of Cozart's 143 wRC+ and Peraza's 150-200 ABs of 62 wRC+? I think there's a chance.

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #32
    Someday Never Comes mth123's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Posts
    21,618

    Re: Arizona Fall League 2017

    Quote Originally Posted by RiverRat13 View Post
    You have to price in the 200-250 less at bats that Cozart will get due to injury. Meaning, will Senzel recreate Cozarts wRC+ of 143? Probably not. But can 650 PAs of Senzel come close to replacing roughly 450-500 (at best) of Cozart's 143 wRC+ and Peraza's 150-200 ABs of 62 wRC+? I think there's a chance.
    I don't know. He'll be making a 2 level jump. The OPS he'd need to do that is in the mid to high .830s. The best recent comp may be Alex Bregman whose 2016 minor league OPS was roughly where Senzel's is accounting for league differences and he's pretty much right where Senzel would need to be to break even, but he had 300 PAs between AAA and MLB last year to assist him in making that jump. If Senzel makes that jump next year with only a couple weeks of AAA, I'd guess a realistic expectation would be a .750 to .775 OPS though GABP may give him a bump. .840 or so wouldn't be a shocker, but I don't think it's a reasonable expectation.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | cumberlandreds | Gallen5862 | JaxRed | Plus Plus | Powel Crosley | RedlegJake | RedsfaninMT | The Operator