Irma is out in the Atlantic now, and won't even threaten the US for another week. But if it does, and the current forecast tracks imply that it will (weather forecasts this far out are notoriously unreliable), it could get very, very ugly along the east coast starting next weekend. Irma is forecast to be a category 4 or 5 when it makes landfall, according to these models. Harvey was a strong category 3.
Also, this GFS forecast shows the center of Irma pretty much over my house in Virginia:
Our planet is a lonely speck in the great enveloping cosmic dark. In our obscurity, in all this vastness, there is no hint that help will come from elsewhere to save us from ourselves. -- Carl Sagan (Pale Blue Dot)
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/ir...ange-questions
To get a better sense of where Irma might go, it is often helpful to look at the ensemble forecasts from the European and GFS models. These forecasts take the operational high-resolution version of the models and impose slight variations in the initial atmospheric conditions, to simulate an ensemble of potential outcomes. They are run at lower resolution, so individual ensemble members are likely to be less reliable than the operational version. The GFS model runs 20 different ensemble forecasts, and the European model runs 50. One tool that I have found valuable is to look at the “high probability cluster” of the European model—the four ensemble members that have done the best job tracking Irma over the past day. Looking at Figure 2, the high probability cluster predicts that the Caribbean and U.S. Gulf Coast might be the most at-risk areas for a landfall by Irma.
Bottom line: Climatology is in Irma's favor. We are fast approaching the average peak date of the Atlantic hurricane season (September 10) as well as the seasonal peak of African tropical waves. Moreover, SSTs are above seasonal averages across the entire tropical Atlantic. Irma is more than a week away from any possible U.S. impacts. Bear in mind that, on average, long-range hurricane forecasts beyond 7 days have very little skill when it comes to specific locations and intensities, and much could change in the coming days. The idea is not to take a particular track or strength forecast as gospel at this point, but to be aware that a major hurricane could be approaching North America in the 1- to 2-week time frame.
Irma forecast
The adjusted 0Z August 31, 2017 track forecast by the operational European model for Irma (red line), along with the track of the average of the 50 members of the European model ensemble (heavy black line), and the track forecasts from the “high probability cluster” (grey lines)—the four European model ensemble members that have performed best with Irma thus far, as of 6Z Thursday. Right: the corresponding intensity forecast for these various model runs, with the operational European model forecast shown in red. All of the forecasts take Irma to major hurricane status at some point in the next 12 days. Irma is much stronger than the 0Z run had anticipated, so the intenisty forecast is likely underdone.
We'll go down in history as the first society that wouldn't save itself because it wasn't cost effective ~ Kurt Vonnegut
WrongVerb (09-01-2017)
The heavy black line would really, really suck!
Actually that's probably the best case scenario, other than it turning back out into the Atlantic. The DR and Cuba both have mountains which would shear the hurricane a bit and knock it down while it was over land and couldn't immediately re-strengthen. Then if it goes straight up the Florida peninsula it would be dampened further and become a mostly rain event with strongish winds. Worst case keeps it out over the water until it makes landfall.Originally Posted by Boston Red
Our planet is a lonely speck in the great enveloping cosmic dark. In our obscurity, in all this vastness, there is no hint that help will come from elsewhere to save us from ourselves. -- Carl Sagan (Pale Blue Dot)
Hurricane Irma briefly went down to a category 2 as it underwent eye wall regeneration/replacement. It has no re-obtained category 3 status and is heading west at 13mph with winds of 120 mph and pressure at 964 mb. It is currently 1,500 miles from the Leeward islands.
Just spent the last 11 hours working on Harvey claims. After 9 years of doing this I still enjoy being able to help people start to get their homes back together. Mostly minor stuff so far from the outlaying areas.
Wind or flood?
We'll go down in history as the first society that wouldn't save itself because it wasn't cost effective ~ Kurt Vonnegut
Wind. I've never gotten around to getting my flood cert.
Get your NFIP certification. Seriously.
PM me.
Last edited by RFS62; 09-01-2017 at 10:27 PM.
We'll go down in history as the first society that wouldn't save itself because it wasn't cost effective ~ Kurt Vonnegut
Slacker.
No kidding. God knows I've tried with this boy.
We'll go down in history as the first society that wouldn't save itself because it wasn't cost effective ~ Kurt Vonnegut
Here's today's track forecast
We'll go down in history as the first society that wouldn't save itself because it wasn't cost effective ~ Kurt Vonnegut
Looking very bad for the Bahamas again, and the southeast US
We'll go down in history as the first society that wouldn't save itself because it wasn't cost effective ~ Kurt Vonnegut
jwdoc77 (09-04-2017)
Latest forecast has IRMA tracking further west before making that northward turn which is not yet in the official forecast path.
A bit concerned here in Florida.
"A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals and you know it."
http://dalmady.blogspot.com
Yeah not looking good.
Posting Permissions
|
Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please. |
Reply With Quote