Hurricane Irma

[JaxRed]

Dom is here.

In Tampa.

Pray.

Or send Twinkies.

Remember Steve Winwood's advice "Higher Ground"

[Sea Ray]

To be fair, the two big models -- Euro and GFS -- show the storm bombing before landfall to close to cat 5. We'll see if that verifies or not. But NWS forecast is often behind the models.

Also, the longer it stays off the west coast of Florida, the more it will strengthen.

There's no issue of fairness. One is a statement of what it is. Another is of what the future holds

[Redsfaithful]

Dom is here.

In Tampa.

Pray.

Or send Twinkies.

Good luck.

[RFS62]

Category 4 storms cause catastrophic damage

Here is NHC’s characterization of damage from a Category 4 hurricane (focusing on wind-related damage): Catastrophic damage will occur. Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/ir...3-or-4-florida

[Gainesville Red]

Mosaic of Key West livecams: https://viewsync.net/watch?v=eNCwj35...autoplay=false

[Redsfaithful]

Amazing how there was a very recent article about how vulnerable Houston was and now there was a very recent article about how vulnerable Tampa is:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graph...limate-change/

One of the 10 most vulnerable areas on earth to a hurricane like this. Hoping it doesn't get directly hit. It sounds like it would be Katrina catastrophic.

[klw]

i think this is from the 2pm ECMWF

[RFS62]

Katrina was a cat 5 monster as it churned its way towards New Orleans, but it made landfall as a cat 3. All this yapping about Irma being down in strength is really missing the point.

The storm surge, by far the most dangerous aspect of any hurricane, is predicted to be 12' in Naples. it's predicted to be a cat 4 when it hits Naples.

[Redsfaithful]

I have a cousin who lives on Marco Island, she "evacuated" to Naples. She says she's 30 ft above sea level. Not really looking forward to the next 24 hours.

[RFS62]

I have a cousin who lives on Marco Island, she "evacuated" to Naples. She says she's 30 ft above sea level. Not really looking forward to the next 24 hours.

Marco Island is totally screwed if forecast is correct.

Hope she's inland at Naples, 12 to 15 foot flood surge predicted.

Irma put a serious head fake on southwest Florida. Now it's too late to get out.

[JaxRed]

Google traffic has everything green. I'd make a run for the north.

[WrongVerb]

Google traffic has everything green. I'd make a run for the north.

Same here. North and west to Pensacola or Mobile.

[JaxRed]

Looking at maps again, I'd seriously consider I-4 to Daytona and then up I-95. In this race, east is your friend as well as north. I-4 goes NE. And then 95 away from trouble.

[WrongVerb]

Irma re-intensifying now after losing strength while interacting with Cuba. May not make landfall on the peninsula at all. Big bend and Tallahassee in the crosshairs. Mitigating circumstance is that the closer Irma gets to the panhandle, the more upper level shear it will encounter, knocking down the intensity.

Latest from NWS:

SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.7N 81.3W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM N OF VARADERO CUBA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...210 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB...27.49 INCHES

[WrongVerb]

Surge forecast for Tampa is down, with the forecast track moving slightly west. This is good news for Dom. Still going to be rough but as long as he's in a solidly built structure (hopefully a shelter) he and his family should be OK.