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Thread: Hurricane Irma

  1. #16
    Overton Window Breaker WrongVerb's Avatar
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    Re: Hurricane Irma

    These latest tracks are rather weird movement for a hurricane. And that's because they're depending on the steep high pressure in the Atlantic remaining strong, even at the edges, A little weakness or slight jog in that high pressure system and all bets are off on this track validating.

    That said, for you Florida folks, you should be preparing a "go bag" and evacuation route. Keep in mind the terrible logistics of trying to evacuate southern Florida in 24-48 hours. It's going to be a nightmare.

    Also note, if this forecast holds for the predicted pressure levels, it will literally be the strongest storm to ever hit CONUS, and one of the strongest storms of all time. Worse than Andrew. Maybe much worse.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there always has been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that “my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge." -- Isaac Asimov

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  3. #17
    Moderator JaxRed's Avatar
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    Re: Hurricane Irma

    Dolphins have a game Sunday in Miami. That seems unlikely to happen in that venue.... The VERY latest (I'm watching) has it just offshore Miami (so Miami would get slammed, but by the left side not the right), and moving straight north so that the farther north you are the less you get. But that means someone like SC gets the direct hit.

    This would be slightly different from Matthew who tracked the coast more closely.
    Last edited by JaxRed; 09-04-2017 at 03:16 PM.
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  4. #18
    Overton Window Breaker WrongVerb's Avatar
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    Re: Hurricane Irma

    Looking at weather message boards and it's not gonna be pretty for Florida. The current forecast track bisects the peninsula. Miami will be under water. Six million people are going to have 48 hours to evacuate (leave by Thursday morning to avoid the rush, Oneupper). Backside onshore flow will flood Tampa (get out by Friday morning, Dom). A cat 5 in this situation puts 25 feet of water in downtown Tampa. Jacksonville is going to bear the brunt of a front left quadrant hit, meaning the strongest winds (cat 4 or 5 at the time) and significant flooding as well.

    My advice is to leave before they call mandatory evacuations. By that time it'll be too late. Get to a place somewhere inland and away from rivers and large streams, in a solid structure on the ground floor, hunker down with a few days food and entertainment supplies, and ride it out. Don't forget to carry cash, as ATMs likely won't work for awhile.

    Another thing to consider: Red Cross and other emergency services are already stretched thin with responders running on fumes due to Harvey. Another disaster like Irma is going to be incredibly difficult to respond to with the necessary means for some time. It's going to be worse before it gets better, that's for sure.

    Of course, I say all this with the caveat that hurricane tracks are notoriously difficult to forecast and could change, so keep abreast of significant changes in forecasts. But take the initiative and be safe rather than sorry.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there always has been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that “my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge." -- Isaac Asimov

  5. #19
    Danger is my business! oneupper's Avatar
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    Re: Hurricane Irma

    Thanks for the update WV. I have been checking this and the storm seems to be tracking SW a bit. Where I live (Weston) is about 20 miles inland. We haven't had any hurricanes for a while, but we went through a whole mess in 2004-5, including Wilma which passed directly over as a Cat 3.
    Probably going to stay put for now, but looking at places to fly to or make a run north (far north). Lots of hotel rooms in Orlando.
    "A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals and you know it."

    http://dalmady.blogspot.com

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  7. #20
    Moderator RedsfaninMT's Avatar
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    Re: Hurricane Irma

    Quote Originally Posted by oneupper View Post
    Thanks for the update WV. I have been checking this and the storm seems to be tracking SW a bit. Where I live (Weston) is about 20 miles inland. We haven't had any hurricanes for a while, but we went through a whole mess in 2004-5, including Wilma which passed directly over as a Cat 3.
    Probably going to stay put for now, but looking at places to fly to or make a run north (far north). Lots of hotel rooms in Orlando.
    You could come back to MT and enjoy a different type of Armageddon with the fires!

  8. #21
    Moderator cumberlandreds's Avatar
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    Re: Hurricane Irma

    Per multiple tweets this is now a category 5 hurricane. Maximum sustained winds at a 175 mph. If you live in Florida I would start evacuation packing. It looks like Florida will take a direct hit.
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  9. #22
    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
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    Re: Hurricane Irma

    Quote Originally Posted by JaxRed View Post
    Dolphins have a game Sunday in Miami. That seems unlikely to happen in that venue.... The VERY latest (I'm watching) has it just offshore Miami (so Miami would get slammed, but by the left side not the right), and moving straight north so that the farther north you are the less you get. But that means someone like SC gets the direct hit.

    This would be slightly different from Matthew who tracked the coast more closely.
    They are talking about moving the game to Thursday.
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  10. #23
    Danger is my business! oneupper's Avatar
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    Re: Hurricane Irma

    Quote Originally Posted by cumberlandreds View Post
    Per multiple tweets this is now a category 5 hurricane. Maximum sustained winds at a 175 mph. If you live in Florida I would start evacuation packing. It looks like Florida will take a direct hit.
    West Coast FL looking a bit more vulnerable right now. That's Dom.
    "A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals and you know it."

    http://dalmady.blogspot.com

  11. #24
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: Hurricane Irma

    Quote Originally Posted by oneupper View Post
    West Coast FL looking a bit more vulnerable right now. That's Dom.
    I have to ask...

    Everything I'm reading and hearing is you need to get out of dodge right now. It's heading directly for Miami. What do you gain from staying? I'm not trying to be mean or anything, I've just always found the "nah, I'm going to ride this disaster out" mentality interesting. If it were me, I would be visiting family in Ohio for a couple weeks starting tonight or tomorrow.
    Last edited by RedTeamGo!; 09-05-2017 at 09:06 AM.
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  13. #25
    Overton Window Breaker WrongVerb's Avatar
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    Re: Hurricane Irma

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsfaninMT View Post
    You could come back to MT and enjoy a different type of Armageddon with the fires!
    And the Yellowstone super volcano that's about to go off!
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there always has been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that “my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge." -- Isaac Asimov

  14. #26
    Overton Window Breaker WrongVerb's Avatar
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    Re: Hurricane Irma

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    I have to ask...

    Everything I'm reading and hearing is you need to get out of dodge right now. It's heading directly for Miami. What do you gain from staying? I'm not trying to be mean or anything, I've just always found the "nah, I'm going to ride this disaster out" mentality interesting. If it were me, I would be visiting family in Ohio for a couple weeks starting tonight or tomorrow.
    This. It really is a better safe than sorry situation. Also remember, don't take the hurricane track forecast as gospel when we're talking a difference of fifty miles or so. It could be too late to evacuate by the time it is forecast to hit your area directly.
    Last edited by WrongVerb; 09-05-2017 at 09:25 AM.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there always has been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that “my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge." -- Isaac Asimov

  15. #27
    Danger is my business! oneupper's Avatar
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    Re: Hurricane Irma

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    I have to ask...

    Everything I'm reading and hearing is you need to get out of dodge right now. What do you gain from staying? I'm not trying to be mean or anything, I've just always found the "nah, I'm going to ride this disaster out" mentality interesting. If it were me, I would be visiting family in Ohio for a couple weeks starting tonight or tomorrow.
    I've only been in Florida for 14 years, but family was here from before Andrew (1992). My parents lived on the beach. They evacuated a couple of times to my sister's house (about 10 miles inland). So there has been plenty of storms and hurricanes. The worst thing about a hurricane, for most people is not the wind or the rain. Normally just a small swathe is very severely affected. It's power going out. It's a freaking hassle. Then the fallen trees and debris.
    So then you have to worry about when school starts up again. And the information is normally pretty bad. With Wilma it was two weeks before school started again, but they would tell you on a day to day basis.

    I have to travel the week after, so its a bit of a complication to leave. They'll shut the airports down in the area and who knows if we can get back in order to then leave in time.

    The thing about hurricanes is that you CAN outrun them. So, worst case we keep the car full of gas.

    What can I tell you? Life in Florida. We had a good run.
    "A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals and you know it."

    http://dalmady.blogspot.com

  16. #28
    Member Rojo Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Hurricane Irma

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo Rijo View Post
    Just like I had a bad feeling in my gut last year about Matthew I've got a feeling about Irma. Hope I'm wrong but I think she's going to be a monster.
    and here we are, starring down only a few days until what likely will be one of the most powerful hurricane impacts in history. I really hope and pray that all in her path will listen to the warnings and be pro active in everyway possible. still a chance things could change but it looks pretty bad.

  17. #29
    Overton Window Breaker WrongVerb's Avatar
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    Re: Hurricane Irma

    One person can outrun a hurricane. Ten million evacuees in a 48 hour period, not so much.

    Also, it's going to be a panic situation down there, so this quote comes to mind:

    "A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals and you know it."
    Not sure where I saw that most recently.
    Last edited by WrongVerb; 09-05-2017 at 10:10 AM.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there always has been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that “my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge." -- Isaac Asimov

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  19. #30
    Member marcshoe's Avatar
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    Re: Hurricane Irma

    I've got an email out to my father in Titusville, which might not be the most vulnerable area, but I'd still want to run. He has a step-daughter in Charlotte, and I'd imagine he might head up there.


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