2017 Minor League PoY

[JaxRed]

I don't hate either one of them. Not sure who I'd pick without thinking, and I hate to do that sometimes. I wanted to say the last series against Jax, a Jax hitter hit a hot grounder between SS and 3rd. No one on, so it's not like he was going to prevent a run from scoring.

But the SS make this diving stop well into the grass, and I'm thinking......"A little bit of a showboat because it's not like you can throw a guy out on a play like that." And then he got to his feet in a blink of an eye and thru an absolute laser to 1b to get the guy. I'm like "Holy crap who was that". (Had just settled in).

It was AlfRod. I was very impressed.

[M2]

That no one cares or measures minor league defensive values doesn't mean we shouldn't. I think that everyone alive knows that there's a rather large gap between the two guys defensively. That Downs is a better prospect should not have anything at all to do with who "deserves" to be nominated as an All-Star based on their performance on the field. We aren't, or at least shouldn't be ranking prospects in this exercise.

I'll say it again: Your hatred of Alfredo Rodriguez's hitting is blinding you a little bit here. It's far closer than you initially suggested it to be.

A) I don't hate Fredo. Never met the kid. Hope he has a great life. What I don't like is his weenie bat (and suspect he falls into a chasm when trying to make the AA jump).

B) Downs is a better prospect in no small part because he played better in their only seasons in professional, American baseball. If Downs had gone belly up in the PL, rather than displaying real OB skills, then he wouldn't be receiving the generally bullish appraisal he's getting inside the baseball community. With Fredo what we're hearing mostly is crickets, because if you can't say anything nice ...

C) You're assigning random value to their defense. You've got no clue what it is. Yet, like me, you're generally skeptical of over-weighted defensive values. So beyond saying Fredo's got a well-regarded glove and Downs is a work in progress, it doesn't leave us with much. I like defense, a lot. When it's a attached to an OPS that begins with the number 5 ... well, no one plays that much defense.

[Vander]

Those of you that are picking Senzel over Siri are wrong.

Siri played center field and he did so at an elite level. He stole 46 bases. He hit 24 bombs. He was an .850 OPS bat.

Senzel is clearly the better prospect, and his bat was better. But his overall performance this year? Tough, tough sell when we consider position, defense and base running.

Mahle for the pitcher, but Jose Lopez deserves some real consideration.

Counterpoint: Downs posted a .911 fielding percentage and he's nowhere near the defender that Alfredo Rodriguez is.

Rodriguez was 92 points below the FSL league average in OPS. Not good.
Downs was 31 points below the Pioneer league average in OPS.

Was Downs 60 point advantage in OPS compared to the league truly a landslide when we consider that defensively they aren't in the same stratosphere?

Your hatred for the performance of Rodriguez may be blinding you a little bit here. It's a much closer option than you seem to believe.

Jose Siri and Nick Senzel are, more or less, the same age. Senzel's season numbers were against competition in AA and A+. Factoring in age, Senzel had a FAR better year.

And again, with Fredo and Downs, Fredo is 23 and Downs just turned 19. Fredo is about league average for the FSL, while Downs is playing against older kids. That should also factor into this.

[mth123]

You guys have convinced me to change my SS pick to Vincej. Downs to the bench. Alf to best defender stashed in the minors.

[dougdirt]

A) I don't hate Fredo. Never met the kid. Hope he has a great life. What I don't like is his weenie bat (and suspect he falls into a chasm when trying to make the AA jump).

B) Downs is a better prospect in no small part because he played better in their only seasons in professional, American baseball. If Downs had gone belly up in the PL, rather than displaying real OB skills, then he wouldn't be receiving the generally bullish appraisal he's getting inside the baseball community. With Fredo what we're hearing mostly is crickets, because if you can't say anything nice ...

C) You're assigning random value to their defense. You've got no clue what it is. Yet, like me, you're generally skeptical of over-weighted defensive values. So beyond saying Fredo's got a well-regarded glove and Downs is a work in progress, it doesn't leave us with much. I like defense, a lot. When it's a attached to an OPS that begins with the number 5 ... well, no one plays that much defense.

Let's note that every time I've used the word hatred, I've followed it up with what you hate about his game.

And Downs is a better prospect because he projects better. That was true before he ever took the field in Billings.

As for C - I'm not assigning any value specifically to their defense. What I've said that is they aren't close and I think you'll find no one arguing otherwise. And that because there is a large gap there, that the 60 point OPS against the league difference between the two means that it's not some clear landslide as to who should be "an all star" at the position over the other. A landslide is Jose Siri over the rest of the center fielders in full season ball. A landslide is Nick Senzel over all of the third baseman in the organization. Had you said you thought Downs was more worthy - cool. That you said it was a landslide for him - that's where I've got the issue. Landslide is painfully obvious, no argument at all that it's remotely possible that it's close.

[dougdirt]

Jose Siri and Nick Senzel are, more or less, the same age. Senzel's season numbers were against competition in AA and A+. Factoring in age, Senzel had a FAR better year.

And again, with Fredo and Downs, Fredo is 23 and Downs just turned 19. Fredo is about league average for the FSL, while Downs is playing against older kids. That should also factor into this.

Again, this is an All-Star pick, not a prospect pick. Nick Senzel is the better prospect. Jose Siri was more valuable to his team than Senzel was to his teams. Their age does not matter.

[kaldaniels]

Again, this is an All-Star pick, not a prospect pick. Nick Senzel is the better prospect. Jose Siri was more valuable to his team than Senzel was to his teams. Their age does not matter.

As for player of the year...

If we did a Reds organizational major/minor league player of the year and Joey Votto had a 6 WAR in Cincy and Jose Siri had a 7 WAR relative to class A Dayton and the Midwest League...would you award it to Siri still?

You can use WAR or whatever you like, just go with the thought that Siri was a bit more valuable to Dayton than Votto was to the Reds.

I still think he spent too much time at Dayton inflating his stats. It's not a cardinal sin but it knocks him down a notch for me.

[dougdirt]

As for player of the year...

If we did a Reds organizational major/minor league player of the year and Joey Votto had a 6 WAR in Cincy and Jose Siri had a 7 WAR relative to class A Dayton and the Midwest League...would you award it to Siri still?

You can use WAR or whatever you like, just go with the thought that Siri was a bit more valuable to Dayton than Votto was to the Reds.

I still think he spent too much time at Dayton inflating his stats. It's not a cardinal sin but it knocks him down a notch for me.

The Majors are a different animal.

[kaldaniels]

The Majors are a different animal.

And AA is a different animal than A.

I know what you are saying but for me just scouring the minors and awarding POY to the player most valuable to his team relative to his level isn't the only way to look at things.

[RED VAN HOT]

The RZ view on Fredo seems to be almost universally negative. I understand expecting more from a $7M man. On the other hand, even though he was old for the league, it was an introductory American season after a weak few months in the Dominican, knocking off the rust. IIRC, most of RZ believed he would start at Dayton. My guess is the Reds expect a plus defender who will OPS around .700. Although that does not measure up to the crop of super SS's arriving in the majors over the last few years, it is probably a reasonable return on investment if it happens. I am neither thrilled nor disappointed with his year. He might still meet expectations.

[Vander]

And AA is a different animal than A.

I know what you are saying but for me just scouring the minors and awarding POY to the player most valuable to his team relative to his level isn't the only way to look at things.

This is kinda what I was saying. If you just want to look at numbers, that's fine. But just for the sake of example, If a dude hits for a 1.500 OPS, but he does so in the Pioneer League, and he does so at the age of 30, then I'm not considering him for this.

That's an extreme example, but I choose to apply it to the Siri/Senzel debate. That's why I'm siding with Senzel.

[Bourgeois Zee]

I think perhaps our issues here are the differences between what some to perceive as an All-Star list and other perceive as a prospect list.

I'd never say Siri lives the prospect strata that does Senzel, but I'd argue he had just as good a season, perhaps better.

As for SS, what about Zach Vincej? He was nearly league average and is by most accounts a superior SS.

[rooscooter]

Pure stats.... Siri by a nose. Season performance overall vs expectations before the season. Siri by a landslide. He kind of came out of nowhere. Senzel was great, no doubt but he had expectations to be very good. Siri was a question mark.

[redsof72]

I did not see Senzel play a single inning this season but it is hard for me to think he was more valuable than Siri if you take defense into account. That being said, I still expect Senzel to win the Reds official player of the year, based on who is doing the voting. Senzel is a more liked person/competitor with the people who coach and develop him and that will factor in. Siri will win the Hitter of the Year. Mahle will get the Pitcher of the Year.