Dick Williams was in Japan to watch Ohtani

[klw]

Not unless they are really bad at math.

Maybe I should rephrase (not that rules and baseball have anything to do with math- just ask Yogi:
Can the Reds pay the $20 mil to the team or are they limited to only paying the team 300k or are the two processes seen as different?

[reds44]

Not unless they are really bad at math.

Maybe I should rephrase:
Can the Reds pay the $20 mil to the team or are they limited to only paying the team 300k or are the two processes seen as different?

Different

[M2]

Maybe I should rephrase (not that rules and baseball have anything to do with math- just ask Yogi:
Can the Reds pay the $20 mil to the team or are they limited to only paying the team 300k or are the two processes seen as different?

Everybody's capped at around $10M, so if there's a $20M posting fee, then it has to be separate from the signing cap. Otherwise no one can sign him.

[klw]

Everybody's capped at around $10M, so if there's a $20M posting fee, then it has to be separate from the signing cap. Otherwise no one can sign him.

Good point.

Are we sure that Williams wasn't there to scout Wily Mo?

[Kinsm]

What are the chances Dick used this as a business reason to visit Japan?

99%?

Hey Ohtani, come join us - we've won 5 in the past 20 and don't have the FA resources other teams do to build a winner around us....what do you say?

[Kinsm]

They can literally only offer $300,000. Some teams can trade for enough pool space to offer just north of $10M (but less than $11M). There is no penalty anymore. You can only spend what you're "allowed". You can't go over.

In addition to the 20M$ posting fee. Ohtani is not a Japanese free agent.

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The Reds might not be able to offer him much of a signing bonus, but can they offer him a MLB deal? If they plunk him straight into the majors (starting pitching plus regular work in the OF) and pay him, say, $8M per season, I'd think that would make the signing bonus a bit of a non-issue.

He can only sign a minor league deal. If he waits 2 years he can sign a major league deal for tens of millions of $'s (assuming he stays healthy and productive).

[kaldaniels]

In addition to the 20M$ posting fee. Ohtani is not a Japanese free agent.

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He can only sign a minor league deal. If he waits 2 years he can sign a major league deal for tens of millions of $'s (assuming he stays healthy and productive).

There is no 2 year rule.

[Kinsm]

There is no 2 year rule.

He'll be 25 years old in 2 years, therefore he would not be restricted to the current International Free Agent Rules if he waits to come over here.

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Kal, I believe you misread my comment.

[kaldaniels]

He'll be 25 years old in 2 years, therefore he would not be restricted to the current International Free Agent Rules if he waits to come over here.

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Kal, I believe you misread my comment.

Got it! My mistake.

That said, he definetly can sign a tens of millions deal in less than 2 years if he comes over now as an extension. There is no rule forbidding it.

[Kinsm]

Got it! My mistake.

That said, he definetly can sign a tens of millions deal in less than 2 years if he comes over now as an extension. There is no rule forbidding it.

I would say, only if he earns it.

If he were to come over here, be added to a 40 man roster and put up a 6 ERA or a .100 BAVG in a couple of weeks of play and then signs an extension I'd bet MLB would step in and void the initial contract. They seem to be very serious about preventing any teams from sidestepping the latest IFA rules in the new collective bargaining agreement. Now if he comes over and has a 2 ERA or a .300 BAVG in his first season and then signs an extension I don't think MLB would do anything.

[M2]

He can only sign a minor league deal. If he waits 2 years he can sign a major league deal for tens of millions of $'s (assuming he stays healthy and productive).

That's about his bonus, which is important to minor league players because they wouldn't be paid much otherwise. Yet if he plays in MLB from day one, he'll have a major league contract. What I'm saying is I'm pretty sure the Reds can chose to pay him more than the minimum on a MLB deal (just like the Astros did with Singleton). I haven't been able to do an exhaustive search, but so far I've found no prohibition of it in the sources I've checked.

[dougdirt]

That's about his bonus, which is important to minor league players because they wouldn't be paid much otherwise. Yet if he plays in MLB from day one, he'll have a major league contract. What I'm saying is I'm pretty sure the Reds can chose to pay him more than the minimum on a MLB deal (just like the Astros did with Singleton). I haven't been able to do an exhaustive search, but so far I've found no prohibition of it in the sources I've checked.

They can, but you're going to get in trouble if you go outside of the norm. The biggest issue is, you just can't do it in year 1 because then baseball is going to know you told him you would do that, and that's skirting the rules. So in year two you offer him, what $1.5-2M? Then he hits arbitration, or you buy them out, and you're still going 7-10-15-20 after that.

[M2]

I would say, only if he earns it.

If he were to come over here, be added to a 40 man roster and put up a 6 ERA or a .100 BAVG in a couple of weeks of play and then signs an extension I'd bet MLB would step in and void the initial contract. They seem to be very serious about preventing any teams from sidestepping the latest IFA rules in the new collective bargaining agreement. Now if he comes over and has a 2 ERA or a .300 BAVG in his first season and then signs an extension I don't think MLB would do anything.

First off, they'd need to offer him the deal up front. No need to play games. And if they buy a year or two of free agency on the back end of the deal, then I don't think MLB can void it. It's a case of paying more now in return for more years of control. There's precedent for that sort of contract in recent MLB history. MLB let the Astros do it.

And is Rob Manfred really going to invent a rule that blocks a small market club from showing outstanding gumption, creativity and risk tolerance in bringing a young ace to middle America? I'm thinking that's a PR disaster if he tries it.

[M2]

They can, but you're going to get in trouble if you go outside of the norm. The biggest issue is, you just can't do it in year 1 because then baseball is going to know you told him you would do that, and that's skirting the rules. So in year two you offer him, what $1.5-2M? Then he hits arbitration, or you buy them out, and you're still going 7-10-15-20 after that.

I think it's as simple as "they can." It's not skirting the rules to send him straight to the MLB. We just don't see that in other cases because other international prospects are as ready-made as Otani. He's already outside the norm. He might even play two ways. Risk tolerance is how the Reds get into this game. They can't offer bonus money, but they can offer a Singleton contract.

And if they want to cover their bases, offer up a similar deal to Senzel. Then the Reds can say, "You let us pay this 22-year-old player over here, but not that 23-year-old player over there?"

[dougdirt]

I think it's as simple as "they can." It's not skirting the rules to send him straight to the MLB. We just don't see that in other cases because other international prospects are as ready-made as Otani. He's already outside the norm. He might even play two ways. Risk tolerance is how the Reds get into this game. They can't offer bonus money, but they can offer a Singleton contract.

And if they want to cover their bases, offer up a similar deal to Senzel. Then the Reds can say, "You let us pay this 22-year-old player over here, but not that 23-year-old player over there?"

It actually sounds like they CAN'T offer that kind of contract. Baseball America and Fangraphs have both covered it in the past. It sounds like MLB is saying that no, they can't actually do that. We will see how it all plays out in the long run, but it seems that people more in the know are saying that MLB is not going to let that kind of thing happen immediately.