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Thread: The Cozart decision

  1. #16
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: The Cozart decision

    Quote Originally Posted by Strikes Out Looking View Post
    Per Jon Heyman, the Reds will be discussing whether or not to give him a QO this weekend at their organizational meetings https://www.fanragsports.com/inside-...moment-in-sun/
    Unfortunately this is likely to take the whole weekend in order for the Reds to make a final decision, such is the extremely complex and difficult nature of it. Don;t see how the Reds will be able to get anything else done and am thinking they may need to schedule another organizational meeting to address the rest of the stuff on their agenda later in the fall.

    #Not
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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  4. #17
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    Re: The Cozart decision

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo Rijo View Post
    The market for relievers and the market for shortstops are very different
    Yes. It's easier to find relievers as good as Holland, than it is to find SS as good as Cozart.
    Quote Originally Posted by Tony Cloninger View Post
    This team is like watching Zero Hour and thinking you are watching Airplane and waiting for the funny.

  5. #18
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: The Cozart decision

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Yes. It's easier to find relievers as good as Holland, than it is to find SS as good as Cozart.
    Which is why the Reds had continuously to fend off so many blockbuster trade offers for ZC over the last three years. Their discipline is frankly, inspiring.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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  7. #19
    Member Z-Fly's Avatar
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    Re: The Cozart decision

    JoJo is spot on.

    If they do sign Cozart, don't they basically have to trade Suarez, at that point.
    WHEN DOES IT STOP!?!?

  8. #20
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    Re: The Cozart decision

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Greg Holland has already turned down his $15M option, and made clear he will turn down a QO if offered by the Rockies.

    Holland plays a much less valuable position than Cozart, isn't nearly as good, never was as a good as Cozart is now. Is the same age, and has injury issues, having had a TJ surgery in 2015, plus lost time this season due to a cut on his pitching hand.

    If Greg Holland is turning down his $15M option and a $17M QO, then I think it's safe to say Cozart will turn down a QO, if offered.
    My thoughts would be Holland is a 32 year old relief pitcher, past his peak, with previous arm issues. He will want to maximize the overall dollar amount of his next contract. If he gets 3/$30M or 4/$36 instead of 1/$17M he will be plenty happy. He has guaranteed himself an additional $13 or $19M. One arm injury, or loss of effectiveness, and he loses out on that additional $13M if he takes the QO.

    Cozart on the other hand doesn't carry near the risk of sudden ineffectiveness or career ending injury risk as a pitcher, so he can take the $17M and plan to sign another deal next off season. With last year being far and away his best year he could be in for a very lucrative payday next season on a 2-3 year deal if he can reproduce his numbers this year. If he doesn't he should still have little issue in getting $5-6M from someone next year.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Please, no to the QO.
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.

  9. #21
    Member Kinsm's Avatar
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    Re: The Cozart decision

    Quote Originally Posted by Strikes Out Looking View Post
    Per Jon Heyman, the Reds will be discussing whether or not to give him a QO this weekend at their organizational meetings https://www.fanragsports.com/inside-...moment-in-sun/
    The Reds should have already made that decision when they decided not to move him. The only thing that could have effected their direction on him between now and then is his health.

  10. #22
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    Re: The Cozart decision

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Yes. It's easier to find relievers as good as Holland, than it is to find SS as good as Cozart.
    But there is more demand for quality relievers since each team requires several.

  11. #23
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: The Cozart decision

    Here's an interesting question for debate...

    What would be more likely....the Rocs buyout Holland's option or they'd offer him a QO?

    Their bullpen is going to have a lot of turnover this off season but I think they'd buy him out and cut bait if he were to accept his $15M option.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  12. #24
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    Re: The Cozart decision

    Quote Originally Posted by Z-Fly View Post
    JoJo is spot on.

    If they do sign Cozart, don't they basically have to trade Suarez, at that point.
    And why would they have to do that? Are you under the impression that Senzel can't play elsewhere (or he himself can't be traded, or continue to play in the minors)? Or that Suarez can't move positions either?

  13. #25
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    Re: The Cozart decision

    Quote Originally Posted by Griffey012 View Post
    My thoughts would be Holland is a 32 year old relief pitcher, past his peak, with previous arm issues. He will want to maximize the overall dollar amount of his next contract. If he gets 3/$30M or 4/$36 instead of 1/$17M he will be plenty happy. He has guaranteed himself an additional $13 or $19M. One arm injury, or loss of effectiveness, and he loses out on that additional $13M if he takes the QO.

    Cozart on the other hand doesn't carry near the risk of sudden ineffectiveness or career ending injury risk as a pitcher, so he can take the $17M and plan to sign another deal next off season. With last year being far and away his best year he could be in for a very lucrative payday next season on a 2-3 year deal if he can reproduce his numbers this year. If he doesn't he should still have little issue in getting $5-6M from someone next year.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Please, no to the QO.
    If Cozart isn't nearly the injury risk that Holland is, then he is worth more to the team that signs him, and is more likely to get a big multi year contract, and thus more likely to turn down a QO. You can't have it both ways.
    Quote Originally Posted by Tony Cloninger View Post
    This team is like watching Zero Hour and thinking you are watching Airplane and waiting for the funny.

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  15. #26
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    Re: The Cozart decision

    I expect the Reds to offer a QA to Cozart only with an expectation he will reject it.

    If they actually need to pay him that money, it will limit their ability to add pitching.

    Simply, they need to direct their available money to pitching.

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    New Fever (10-13-2017)

  17. #27
    Member Z-Fly's Avatar
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    Re: The Cozart decision

    Quote Originally Posted by Kinsm View Post
    And why would they have to do that? Are you under the impression that Senzel can't play elsewhere (or he himself can't be traded, or continue to play in the minors)? Or that Suarez can't move positions either?
    Are you under the impression that Senzel can't play elsewhere (or he himself can't be traded, or continue to play in the minors)?

    -Yes, I think he's strictly a corner infielder. He could be traded, but I assume Suarez would be the more likely one to be traded. He's Major league ready, I don't forsee him stashed in AAA

    Or that Suarez can't move positions either?

    -Yeah, maybe. He's gold glovish at 3B, so I'd think you want him to stay there. There are a handful of options that you'd have to throw away at 2b, if you move Suarez there, which wouldn't be the end of the world. It just seems like instead of throwing away cheap options at 2B, why not Flip Suarez for something of value.
    WHEN DOES IT STOP!?!?

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  19. #28
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    Re: The Cozart decision

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    But there is more demand for quality relievers since each team requires several.
    But the price for relievers is much lowee than the price for SS. The best reliever these days gets about half as much as the best SS. League average releivers get paid much less than league average SS.

    I'm sorry, but if Greg Holland is turning down a QO, then so is Cozart, no way to spin this, imo.
    Quote Originally Posted by Tony Cloninger View Post
    This team is like watching Zero Hour and thinking you are watching Airplane and waiting for the funny.

  20. #29
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    Re: The Cozart decision

    Quote Originally Posted by Z-Fly View Post
    I really do think they have a lot more money available than most of us think. I think they are more afraid of being saddled with bad contracts for the next window, than actually spending money. So a 1 year deal, even inflated, makes sense.
    Reds ownership was likely unable to pay down debt when they were running large salaries. Now, that they have reduced payroll - they can use "extra" income to pay down debt and perhaps even pay their minority share holders a dividend (something none of them has reportedly seen yet). New Marlins (and before them Astros) owners are going to do just that, gut their team and use their revenues to pay off the debt they took on to pay for those clubs.

    If they want to keep 2018 payroll the same as this year's then they only have about 5M$ to spend this winter after taking into account all raises (assuming they aren't able to offload anymore of it via trades). If they want an even smaller payroll, they may have no money to spend.

    Being able to move Cozart next year for anything of value definitely doesn't become any easier if he's owed 8M$ at the all-star break, that's for certain. This decision, whichever way they decide to go, should have already been made by now.

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  22. #30
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    Re: The Cozart decision

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I expect the Reds to offer a QA to Cozart only with an expectation he will reject it.

    If they actually need to pay him that money, it will limit their ability to add pitching.

    Simply, they need to direct their available money to pitching.
    I agree with this, which is why the Reds may not offer it. But I think it's a mistake. I just don't see Cozart accepting it.
    Quote Originally Posted by Tony Cloninger View Post
    This team is like watching Zero Hour and thinking you are watching Airplane and waiting for the funny.

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