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Thread: MLB Sets 2017-18 Qualifying Offer At $17.4MM

  1. #1
    Moderator Gallen5862's Avatar
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    MLB Sets 2017-18 Qualifying Offer At $17.4MM

    https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/...at-17-4mm.html

    MLB Sets 2017-18 Qualifying Offer At $17.4MM

    Major League Baseball has set the qualifying offer for the upcoming offseason at $17.4MM, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes reports (Twitter link).
    With the news, teams can now make full assessments of whether to issue qualifying offers to pending free agents. Offers are due five days after the World Series wraps up; players will then have ten days to weigh them.
    Prior indications were that the figure would land somewhat higher, with expectations sitting in the range of $18.1MM. Last year, the QO sat at $17.2MM, so this represents only a marginal tick upward. Though the variations here are relatively small relative to the total value, every bit of money adds up for teams that are looking to map out a payroll plan.

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    Member Ron Madden's Avatar
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    Re: MLB Sets 2017-18 Qualifying Offer At $17.4MM

    I like Zack Cozart but I still believe 17.4 MM is far and away just too much to even think about offering him.

    I wouldn't offer half of that with his age and his history of injuries. (JMHO)

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    Chip R (10-13-2017),KYExtemper (10-15-2017)

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    Re: MLB Sets 2017-18 Qualifying Offer At $17.4MM

    Quote Originally Posted by Ron Madden View Post
    I like Zack Cozart but I still believe 17.4 MM is far and away just too much to even think about offering him.

    I wouldn't offer half of that with his age and his history of injuries. (JMHO)
    lol - I think your second line is a bit of an exaggeration. I'd take Cozart for 3 years if he'd sign for $8.7MM AAV. That's...not a lot of money anymore (in respect to MLB salaries, of course).
    Quote Originally Posted by mattfeet View Post
    I woke up this morning after having a dream that the Reds re-signed Bailey to a 5-yr $100MM deal. I hope I'm wrong.
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    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: MLB Sets 2017-18 Qualifying Offer At $17.4MM

    Greg Holland has already turned down his $15M option, and made clear he will turn down a QO if offered by the Rockies.

    Holland plays a much less valuable position than Cozart, isn't nearly as good, never was as a good as Cozart is now. Is the same age, and has injury issues, having had a TJ surgery in 2015, plus lost time this season due to a cut on his pitching hand.

    If Greg Holland is turning down his $15M option and a $17M QO, then I think it's safe to say Cozart will turn down a QO, if offered.
    The team Matheny described several times this weekend as the team he thinks the Cardinals could be, is actually the team the Reds have become.

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    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: MLB Sets 2017-18 Qualifying Offer At $17.4MM

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Greg Holland has already turned down his $15M option, and made clear he will turn down a QO if offered by the Rockies.

    Holland plays a much less valuable position than Cozart, isn't nearly as good, never was as a good as Cozart is now. Is the same age, and has injury issues, having had a TJ surgery in 2015, plus lost time this season due to a cut on his pitching hand.

    If Greg Holland is turning down his $15M option and a $17M QO, then I think it's safe to say Cozart will turn down a QO, if offered.
    What is more likely, the Rockies would buy out the $15M option or they offer him a QO? Lets be honest though, there's a different market for "closers" than there is for Cozart, a calculus that you've obstinately refused to acknowledge or consider across many threads and many millions of posts on the subject.

    Literally, if one refuses to define a player's actual market, at least in any way the resembles reality, it's impossible to engage them meaningfully in discussions about contracts.
    "This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: MLB Sets 2017-18 Qualifying Offer At $17.4MM

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Greg Holland has already turned down his $15M option, and made clear he will turn down a QO if offered by the Rockies.

    Holland plays a much less valuable position than Cozart, isn't nearly as good, never was as a good as Cozart is now. Is the same age, and has injury issues, having had a TJ surgery in 2015, plus lost time this season due to a cut on his pitching hand.

    If Greg Holland is turning down his $15M option and a $17M QO, then I think it's safe to say Cozart will turn down a QO, if offered.
    If Cozart turns down the QO, it hurts his value as teams won't want to lose a draft pick, making it less likely he will get the 50M+ contract the Reds need to get a first round pick which makes it more risky to offer the QO.

    There is no way they offer the QO to him as there is no upside for the Reds.

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    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: MLB Sets 2017-18 Qualifying Offer At $17.4MM

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    If Cozart turns down the QO, it hurts his value as teams won't want to lose a draft pick, making it less likely he will get the 50M+ contract the Reds need to get a first round pick which makes it more risky to offer the QO.

    There is no way they offer the QO to him as there is no upside for the Reds.
    Teams lose a 2nd or 3rd round pick from now on. It's not going to lower his value that much. He may not get $50M (I'm pretty sure he will), but he definitely will get enough more than $17M to guarantee that he turns down the QO.

    GREG HOLLAND IS TURNING DOWN TNE QO.
    The team Matheny described several times this weekend as the team he thinks the Cardinals could be, is actually the team the Reds have become.

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    Re: MLB Sets 2017-18 Qualifying Offer At $17.4MM

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Teams lose a 2nd or 3rd round pick from now on. It's not going to lower his value that much. He may not get $50M (I'm pretty sure he will), but he definitely will get enough more than $17M to guarantee that he turns down the QO.

    GREG HOLLAND IS TURNING DOWN TNE QO.
    If the team losing the player received revenue sharing in the previous season and the free agent signed a deal at least $50MM in guaranteed money, the team will receive a compensatory pick after the first round of the draft.

    It's a sandwich pick between 1st and second round

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    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: MLB Sets 2017-18 Qualifying Offer At $17.4MM

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    If the team losing the player received revenue sharing in the previous season and the free agent signed a deal at least $50MM in guaranteed money, the team will receive a compensatory pick after the first round of the draft.

    It's a sandwich pick between 1st and second round
    That is not what the signing team loses, however. They only lose a 2nd or 3rd round pick. This was changed so that players wouldn't lose value as free agents.
    The team Matheny described several times this weekend as the team he thinks the Cardinals could be, is actually the team the Reds have become.

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    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: MLB Sets 2017-18 Qualifying Offer At $17.4MM

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    That is not what the signing team loses, however. They only lose a 2nd or 3rd round pick. This was changed so that players wouldn't lose value as free agents.
    It's the Risk/reward for the Reds that concerns me.

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    Re: MLB Sets 2017-18 Qualifying Offer At $17.4MM

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    It's the Risk/reward for the Reds that concerns me.
    I agree with that, which is why I think they may not offer it. But I think it's a mistake, as I can't see Cozart accepting it in this market.
    The team Matheny described several times this weekend as the team he thinks the Cardinals could be, is actually the team the Reds have become.

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    Re: MLB Sets 2017-18 Qualifying Offer At $17.4MM

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Teams lose a 2nd or 3rd round pick from now on. It's not going to lower his value that much. He may not get $50M (I'm pretty sure he will), but he definitely will get enough more than $17M to guarantee that he turns down the QO.

    GREG HOLLAND IS TURNING DOWN TNE QO.
    Point of clarification...what is a TNE QO?

    Also, point of clarification. Colorado has neither offered a TNE QO nor indicated that they wouldn't buy out his $15M option.
    "This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Wait... What? Vander's Avatar
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    Re: MLB Sets 2017-18 Qualifying Offer At $17.4MM

    1 WAR is generally worth around $8 million in today's MLB. So, in essence, the qualifying offer is the equivalent value that you would expect to pay for a 2.1-2.2 WAR player. Cozart was worth that when he was a purely defensive SS with a light bat. Now? He's worth more than double that.

    He'd turn down the qualifying offer.

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    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: MLB Sets 2017-18 Qualifying Offer At $17.4MM

    Quote Originally Posted by Vander View Post
    1 WAR is generally worth around $8 million in today's MLB. So, in essence, the qualifying offer is the equivalent value that you would expect to pay for a 2.1-2.2 WAR player. Cozart was worth that when he was a purely defensive SS with a light bat. Now? He's worth more than double that.

    He'd turn down the qualifying offer.
    What teams will be looking for a shortstop in the offseason? There wasn't a trade market for him this season when he was having a career year. It's hard to see a team that is going to need him moving forward. If he's looking at 30M over 3 years he'd probably think about taking 17M and trying again next off season.

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    Wait... What? Vander's Avatar
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    Re: MLB Sets 2017-18 Qualifying Offer At $17.4MM

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    What teams will be looking for a shortstop in the offseason? There wasn't a trade market for him this season when he was having a career year. It's hard to see a team that is going to need him moving forward. If he's looking at 30M over 3 years he'd probably think about taking 17M and trying again next off season.
    The market won't be any better a year from now. In fact, he'd be forcing himself into an all-time great class where he'd most likely be ignored even more.


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