MLB Sets 2017-18 Qualifying Offer At $17.4MM

[mth123]

Senzel as an infielder (likely second or third base) is more valuable than as a corner outfielder.

Great hitters who can field at second, third or short are more valuable than similar corner outfielders.

Senzel knows this. The Reds know this. Everybody knows it.

From the Reds perspective, Senzel as a RF with an .800 to .850 OPS is much more valuable than as a 2B or 3B at AAA. I just don't see him being a big leaguer in 2018 if he stays in the IF. He nor any of the current projected Reds at 2B or 3B will be moving to SS to open an IF spot. Gennett won't add much to any trade return and I think it's doubtful they'll deal him. They could get the same, maybe better, by dealing Schebler or Duvall and Senzel would be a bigger upgrade in place of either of those guys than he would replacing Gennett..

I also dispute the widely held assumption that the transition from 3B to 2B will be all that easy. Todd Frazier couldn't do it. Aaron Boone couldn't do it. Playing the OF is much easier than playing any position in the IF (including 1B IMO) provided that the player has the basic tools required to play in the OF. Senzel has both the mobility and the arm strength to make a very solid defensive RF. He's not Yonder Alonso or Adam Dunn. All that's left is a short trial period to see if he can read a fly ball off the bat. If he can, he could probably move to the OF fairly quickly without much problem like Duvall and Betts did. If he can't, he'd probably always be poor out there no matter how much work he puts into it, and I would abandon the idea. IMO, it's his quickest path to the big leagues and getting to the big leagues quickly is a much bigger factor in how much he'll earn over his career than the position he plays might be. A transition to 2b will likely require a full season at AAA learning the position. If he becomes a free agent before he turns 30, the deal he can sign will be significantly higher than if he reaches that level at 31 or so. The principle that says he's more valuable as a 2B than a RF is true in a vacuum, but nothing is ever done in a vacuum and reaching the big leagues at a younger age is a way bigger factor on how much money he'll earn in his career. It's also better for the Reds and moving the rebuild forward. Senzel will be a building block no matter where he plays. Lets get him up here.

[kpresidente]

From the Reds perspective, Senzel as a RF with an .800 to .850 OPS is much more valuable than as a 2B or 3B at AAA.

But getting an .800-.850 OPS out of an outfielder is easy. For example, we could probably get that from a Schebler/Duvall platoon, which we already have. This is just spinning wheels.

He nor any of the current projected Reds at 2B or 3B will be moving to SS to open an IF spot.

If so, then therein lies the problem.

[Benihana]

I would not move Senzel to the OF, period.

If he can’t make the transition to 2B, I’d keep him at 3B and if Suarez can’t or won’t move off of 3B (to 2B or preferably SS), trade Suarez once Senzel beats down the door.

Maybe trade Suarez to Atlanta for Swanson and one of their prize young arms?

[mth123]

If the Reds move Suarez, Swanson and a young arm isn't enough.

Slobberknocker alert: Suarez, Duvall, Hamilton, Lorenzen, Peraza for Enciarte, Teheran and Swanson.

[Big Klu]

I would not move Senzel to the OF, period.

If he can’t make the transition to 2B, I’d keep him at 3B and if Suarez can’t or won’t move off of 3B (to 2B or preferably SS), trade Suarez once Senzel beats down the door.

Maybe trade Suarez to Atlanta for Swanson and one of their prize young arms?

What if Suarez is better than Senzel?

[Raisor]

What if Suarez is better than Senzel?

what if he isn't?

[dougdirt]

What if Suarez is better than Senzel?

Even if he is, which I doubt he will be, that's not the question that matters. The question that matters is what's better for the Reds: Suarez (better or not) for 2.5-3 years, or Senzel for 7 (assuming they don't butcher things and bring him up from day 1 this year and only get the full 6) plus what Suarez brings you in trade?

[Kinsm]

Extend Suarez, build around him, trade Senzel.

Exact same situation as Votto/Alonso.

[dougdirt]

Extend Suarez, build around him, trade Senzel.

Exact same situation as Votto/Alonso.

Disagree. Alonso had one spot on the field he could play. First base. It meant you had no choice but to trade either he or Votto. Senzel and Suarez can both play other positions if you want them to. There's no force to trade either.

[kaldaniels]

What if Suarez is better than Senzel?

From your POV it probably is moot right, aren’t we getting close to churning time for Suarez?

[Big Klu]

From your POV it probably is moot right, aren’t we getting close to churning time for Suarez?

Actually, yes. If they are serious about this churning thing, then it should be four years then out the door.

Also getting to be churning time for Disco, Iglesias, Lorenzen, Hamilton, and Barnhart.

[InsaneinthBrame]

I would not move Senzel to the OF, period.

If he can’t make the transition to 2B, I’d keep him at 3B and if Suarez can’t or won’t move off of 3B (to 2B or preferably SS), trade Suarez once Senzel beats down the door.

Maybe trade Suarez to Atlanta for Swanson and one of their prize young arms?

Why cant Senzel move to 2B that was his college position his Freshman and Sophmore years?

[InsaneinthBrame]

If the Reds move Suarez, Swanson and a young arm isn't enough.

Slobberknocker alert: Suarez, Duvall, Hamilton, Lorenzen, Peraza for Enciarte, Teheran and Swanson.

Swanson does not seem like of much of an upgrade over Peraza
Teheran I like as an innings eater but he was walk (3.66) and HR(1.48) prone last year is bad for GABP
Enciarte Is an upgrade over Hamilton with the bat (but not as good on the bases or on defense) WAR over last 4 years 11.5 to 10 in favor of Enciarte

But Suarez+ect should fetch a way better return

[dougdirt]

Swanson does not seem like of much of an upgrade over Peraza
Teheran I like as an innings eater but he was walk (3.66) and HR(1.48) prone last year is bad for GABP
Enciarte Is an upgrade over Hamilton with the bat (but not as good on the bases or on defense) WAR over last 4 years 11.5 to 10 in favor of Enciarte

But Suarez+ect should fetch a way better return

I guess the difference between Swanson and Peraza is growth potential. Swanson walks. Swanson has shown he can hit the ball with authority at times. Peraza makes a lot of contact. In 2017, Swanson was very, very, very bad. But looking forward, you can dream on that growth and say, yeah, there's a reason to believe that guy could OPS .775 and play shortstop. Despite what happened in 2016 for Jose Peraza, I think it's tougher to see him being that guy than Swanson.

[Kinsm]

Disagree. Alonso had one spot on the field he could play. First base. It meant you had no choice but to trade either he or Votto. Senzel and Suarez can both play other positions if you want them to. There's no force to trade either.

My comment was in response to Benihana whose hypothetical said "Senzel couldn't play 2nd."