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Thread: MLB Sets 2017-18 Qualifying Offer At $17.4MM

  1. #16
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: MLB Sets 2017-18 Qualifying Offer At $17.4MM

    Quote Originally Posted by Vander View Post
    The market won't be any better a year from now. In fact, he'd be forcing himself into an all-time great class where he'd most likely be ignored even more.
    which is why offering a QO is so risky.

    He isn't going to make the +50M deal that is going to get the Reds a first round pick that makes risking 17M worth it.

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  3. #17
    Wait... What? Vander's Avatar
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    Re: MLB Sets 2017-18 Qualifying Offer At $17.4MM

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    which is why offering a QO is so risky.

    He isn't going to make the +50M deal that is going to get the Reds a first round pick that makes risking 17M worth it.
    There are markets that could be compelled to offer him a good contract. Baltimore and Kansas City, for instance, are both franchises in need of a shortstop and are resisting the idea of rebuilding. Also, Cozart and his agent know that he just came off of a career year. Is he really going to bet that he can stay healthy and keep that pace up? Now is the absolute best time he's ever going to have to get an expensive, long term contract.

    What happens if he accepts the qualifying offer and then blows out his leg next year? He will have ruined any chance he had of having stability in his career.

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    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: MLB Sets 2017-18 Qualifying Offer At $17.4MM

    Quote Originally Posted by Vander View Post

    What happens if he accepts the qualifying offer and then blows out his leg next year? He will have ruined any chance he had of having stability in his career.
    It's also why teams are going to be hesitant to give him a LTC. Dude is an injury risk coming off a career year.

  5. #19
    Wait... What? Vander's Avatar
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    Re: MLB Sets 2017-18 Qualifying Offer At $17.4MM

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    It's also why teams are going to be hesitant to give him a LTC. Dude is an injury risk coming off a career year.
    That won't change in one year. If the goal is to get a long term contract (3+ years), chances are going to go down every year.

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    Re: MLB Sets 2017-18 Qualifying Offer At $17.4MM

    Holland's actions tell me that pitching is going to be very expensive. A pitcher that RZ doesn't particularly want is likely to cost more than the Reds can afford. I see the Reds waiting to see who did not find a home in order to get a relative bargain.

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    Re: MLB Sets 2017-18 Qualifying Offer At $17.4MM

    Quote Originally Posted by RED VAN HOT View Post
    I see the Reds waiting to see who did not find a home in order to get a relative bargain.
    I’ll go with 74-88.

    Too soon?

  9. #22
    Someday Never Comes mth123's Avatar
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    Re: MLB Sets 2017-18 Qualifying Offer At $17.4MM

    I'm having a hard time seeing any correlation between what Holland does and Cozart's situation. Every team in both leagues carries a 12 man pitching staff (at least) and have multiple roster filler or flat out awful pitchers filling some of them. Every single team would have a significant role that Holland could fill and his injury issues are in the past as they didn't effect him at all in 2017. IMO demand will be high. Cozart, OTOH, may only have 3 to 5 teams that would seem to have a need for his services (The Reds are one of them IMO) and was repeatedly sidelined for varying amounts of time with on-going issues in his knee that appears to a chronic issue that will be with him for the rest of his career. In addition, 32 year old pitchers generally have several decent years left in them (assuming they were any good in the 1st place) where MI are much more likely to faal of the cliff both offensively and especially defensively as the approach their mid 30s.

    I just don't see how anything that Holland does tells us anything about Cozart. A $17.4 Million QO is over triple what Cozart made in 2017, with the injury and the murky market, I could easily see him taking that. If he declines, he'd probably get more over the life of a contract, but he won't come near that annual salary IMO.
    Last edited by mth123; 10-13-2017 at 06:48 PM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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    Re: MLB Sets 2017-18 Qualifying Offer At $17.4MM

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I'm having a hard time seeing any correlation between what Holland does and Cozart's situation. Every team in both leagues carries a 12 man pitching staff (at least) and have multiple roster filler or flat out awful pitchers filling some of them. Every single team would have a significant role that Holland could fill and his injury issues are in the past as they didn't effect him at all in 2017. IMO demand will be high. Cozart, OTOH, may only have 3 to 5 teams that would seem to have a need for his services (The Reds are one of them IMO) and was repeatedly sidelined for varying amounts of time with on-going issues in his knee that appears to a chronic issue that will be with him for the rest of his career. In addition, 32 year old pitchers generally have several decent years left in them (assuming they were any good in the 1st place) where MI are much more likely to faal of the cliff both offensively and especially defensively as the approach their mid 30s.

    I just don't see how anything that Holland does tells us anything about Cozart. A $17.4 Million QO is over triple what Cozart made in 2017, with the injury and the murky market, I could easily see him taking that. If he declines, he'd probably get more over the life of a contract, but he won't come near that annual salary IMO.
    Teams that need releivers aren't offering them more than $17M a year. Holland thinks he will get that. He probably will because he's a closer. Teams only need one closer, and most teams have a closer. The demand for closers is around the same as the demand for starting SS. And in general, closers get paid less than starting SS in their free agent years.

    If Greg Holland is turning down a QO, so will Cozart.
    The team Matheny described several times this weekend as the team he thinks the Cardinals could be, is actually the team the Reds have become.

  11. #24
    Someday Never Comes mth123's Avatar
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    Re: MLB Sets 2017-18 Qualifying Offer At $17.4MM

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Teams that need releivers aren't offering them more than $17M a year. Holland thinks he will get that. He probably will because he's a closer. Teams only need one closer, and most teams have a closer. The demand for closers is around the same as the demand for starting SS. And in general, closers get paid less than starting SS in their free agent years.

    If Greg Holland is turning down a QO, so will Cozart.
    I think the issue for Holland isn't the upside it's the far less risky downside. If Holland is left without a closers chair when the Music stops, I still see him getting a 3 to 4 year deal in the $8 to $9 Million per year range as a set-up man. I can't see any team going more than 2 years for Cozart and probably nothing approaching $15 Million per year either. I could easily see him accepting one of those $5 to $8 Million dollar one year deals from the perpetually SS starved Padres in late February. The Reds still look like the team that needs him the most to me and if they move on, it's not clear that he'd be a fit anywhere. At least not at big money. Teams just aren't going to go big if the already have a reasonable option. They'll spend it on a spot where the Roster is much thinner. That's usually the bullpen. They may in fact give it to Holland instead.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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    Re: MLB Sets 2017-18 Qualifying Offer At $17.4MM

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I think the issue for Holland isn't the upside it's the far less risky downside. If Holland is left without a closers chair when the Music stops, I still see him getting a 3 to 4 year deal in the $8 to $9 Million per year range as a set-up man. I can't see any team going more than 2 years for Cozart and probably nothing approaching $15 Million per year either. I could easily see him accepting one of those $5 to $8 Million dollar one year deals from the perpetually SS starved Padres in late February. The Reds still look like the team that needs him the most to me and if they move on, it's not clear that he'd be a fit anywhere. At least not at big money. Teams just aren't going to go big if the already have a reasonable option. They'll spend it on a spot where the Roster is much thinner. That's usually the bullpen. They may in fact give it to Holland instead.
    Yeah, we just have to disagree on what Cozart is worth. We aren't even in the same conversation at this point.
    The team Matheny described several times this weekend as the team he thinks the Cardinals could be, is actually the team the Reds have become.

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    Re: MLB Sets 2017-18 Qualifying Offer At $17.4MM

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Teams that need releivers aren't offering them more than $17M a year. Holland thinks he will get that. He probably will because he's a closer. Teams only need one closer, and most teams have a closer. The demand for closers is around the same as the demand for starting SS. And in general, closers get paid less than starting SS in their free agent years.

    If Greg Holland is turning down a QO, so will Cozart.
    Where does Holland think he's getting 17M$ a year? I don't think he's expecting that at all. What he's expecting is a 3 or 4 year deal with enough money per year to make that 17 over 1 look like scratch.

    And again, you are wrong on the $ amounts.

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    Re: MLB Sets 2017-18 Qualifying Offer At $17.4MM

    Quote Originally Posted by Kinsm View Post
    Where does Holland think he's getting 17M$ a year? I don't think he's expecting that at all. What he's expecting is a 3 or 4 year deal with enough money per year to make that 17 over 1 look like scratch.

    And again, you are wrong on the $ amounts.
    Sorry, bad wording on my part. I meant what you said.
    The team Matheny described several times this weekend as the team he thinks the Cardinals could be, is actually the team the Reds have become.

  16. #28
    Someday Never Comes mth123's Avatar
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    Re: MLB Sets 2017-18 Qualifying Offer At $17.4MM

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Yeah, we just have to disagree on what Cozart is worth. We aren't even in the same conversation at this point.
    Look around the league team by team and tell us who might spend that big money on Cozart. If it's one of the few teams without a SS, I might agree, So tell us why a rebuilding team would spend so much on a 32 year old. Or would they wait until February and get him for the low dollar 1 year deal I'm suggesting may happen. If it's a team where he'd be a marginal upgrade over the existing 2.5 to 3 WAR SS already on hand, assume we expect him to be a 5 WAR guy again, tell us why they'd spend that money on a position where they are already getting adequate production instead of on a position where they have a bigger hole?

    You can bet that Cozart and his agent have already done that exercise. After doing that, the $17.4 Million one year QO might look pretty good.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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  18. #29
    Wait... What? Vander's Avatar
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    Re: MLB Sets 2017-18 Qualifying Offer At $17.4MM

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Look around the league team by team and tell us who might spend that big money on Cozart. If it's one of the few teams without a SS, I might agree, So tell us why a rebuilding team would spend so much on a 32 year old. Or would they wait until February and get him for the low dollar 1 year deal I'm suggesting may happen. If it's a team where he'd be a marginal upgrade over the existing 2.5 to 3 WAR SS already on hand, assume we expect him to be a 5 WAR guy again, tell us why they'd spend that money on a position where they are already getting adequate production instead of on a position where they have a bigger hole?

    You can bet that Cozart and his agent have already done that exercise. After doing that, the $17.4 Million one year QO might look pretty good.
    Baltimore seems like the best bet. They apparently wanted him at the deadline, but the Reds asked for Hays and they balked. They're a team that could definitely use a full tear-down rebuild, but their ownership is 100% against it. So, they're going to make moves like this to patch up their holes.

    Other teams that could consider it include Kansas City, Tampa Bay, and maybe even Pittsburgh.

  19. #30
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: MLB Sets 2017-18 Qualifying Offer At $17.4MM

    Quote Originally Posted by Vander View Post
    Baltimore seems like the best bet. They apparently wanted him at the deadline, but the Reds asked for Hays and they balked. They're a team that could definitely use a full tear-down rebuild, but their ownership is 100% against it. So, they're going to make moves like this to patch up their holes.

    Other teams that could consider it include Kansas City, Tampa Bay, and maybe even Pittsburgh.
    http://www.kansascity.com/sports/mlb...176665856.html


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