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Thread: MLB Sets 2017-18 Qualifying Offer At $17.4MM

  1. #31
    Someday Never Comes mth123's Avatar
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    Re: MLB Sets 2017-18 Qualifying Offer At $17.4MM

    Quote Originally Posted by Vander View Post
    Baltimore seems like the best bet. They apparently wanted him at the deadline, but the Reds asked for Hays and they balked. They're a team that could definitely use a full tear-down rebuild, but their ownership is 100% against it. So, they're going to make moves like this to patch up their holes.

    Other teams that could consider it include Kansas City, Tampa Bay, and maybe even Pittsburgh.
    Tim Beckham had a better range factor than the league as a SS and a 111 OPS+ (131 as an Oriole) as a full time player in 2017 (575 PAs). I see them sticking with him and spending on Pitching.

    I could envision Pittsburgh in on Cozart, but I don't see a long term, big money deal coming from them. If they make an offer it will probably be the 2 year, 20ish Million variety that the Reds should probably offer.

    KC Has Cain, Moustakas, Hosmer, Escobar, even Melky in free agency. If they spend they will try to replace those guys, but Mondesi has been one of their top prospects, so I don't see SS being first on their list. More likely they go into a rebuild period which probably eliminates a 32 year old Cozart.

    I could see Tampa Bay waiting the market out and signing Cozart in February if he's still out there for a bargain deal, but they aren't big spenders and have been in the bottom 10 in Payroll since 2001.

    I don't think the possibility of those teams being my potential market would compel me to turn down a $17.4 Million one year QO.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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  3. #32
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    Re: MLB Sets 2017-18 Qualifying Offer At $17.4MM

    First, there is no need to limit it to teams needing a SS. Cozart is not a plus bat, and could easily be an above average 2B or 3B. There are plenty of teams that could use Cozart at one of these positions. Off the top of my head teams needing either a 2B or 3B...

    The Dodgers would love to upgrade at 2B, and have the money to do it.
    The Rangers
    The Red Sox see Pedoria aging poorly
    The Yankees and Mets
    The Angels
    The Blue Jays
    The Brewers
    The Braves
    The Rays

    And here is one team that everyone is forgetting...

    The Cardinals. They are in full retool mode, and need defense more than anything. The would love to have Cozart as SS, and have a history of paying older injury prone SS a ton of money. If they signed Peralta to a $50M contract a few years ago, they would have no problem signing Cozart to one now.
    The team Matheny described several times this weekend as the team he thinks the Cardinals could be, is actually the team the Reds have become.

  4. #33
    Someday Never Comes mth123's Avatar
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    Re: MLB Sets 2017-18 Qualifying Offer At $17.4MM

    I don't see teams paying big bucks to play Cozart at 2B. He might be a good value on a reasonable deal, but that WAR you keep pointing to as the reason why he's such a lock to get big money is largely due to him being a plus defender at SS. I could see one of those teams offering $8 to $10 Million per year for 2 or 3 years to play him at 2B. I wouldn't turn down $17 Million+ for one year for that possibility if I was him.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

  5. #34
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: MLB Sets 2017-18 Qualifying Offer At $17.4MM

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I don't see teams paying big bucks to play Cozart at 2B. He might be a good value on a reasonable deal, but that WAR you keep pointing to as the reason why he's such a lock to get big money is largely due to him being a plus defender at SS. I could see one of those teams offering $8 to $10 Million per year for 2 or 3 years to play him at 2B. I wouldn't turn down $17 Million+ for one year for that possibility if I was him.
    What team is really going to pay a guy like he's upper echelon at a premium position in order to move him immediately to a less premium, unnatural position?
    "This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: MLB Sets 2017-18 Qualifying Offer At $17.4MM

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I don't see teams paying big bucks to play Cozart at 2B. He might be a good value on a reasonable deal, but that WAR you keep pointing to as the reason why he's such a lock to get big money is largely due to him being a plus defender at SS. I could see one of those teams offering $8 to $10 Million per year for 2 or 3 years to play him at 2B. I wouldn't turn down $17 Million+ for one year for that possibility if I was him.
    First, the difference is WAR between a 2B and SS is about a half a win, or around $3M a year. Not a big difference. But if teams see Cozart as a 2B or 3B, they would be more likely to offer him a longer deal, as that is where most SS end up as they age. Many of the teams I have listed are huge market teams, that have a history of overpaying. And some might then move their SS to 2B or 3B, since Cozart is the plus defender. In fact, I am guessing that is what will happen in most of these cases.

    And you are ignoring the Cardinals who need a SS.
    The team Matheny described several times this weekend as the team he thinks the Cardinals could be, is actually the team the Reds have become.

  7. #36
    Someday Never Comes mth123's Avatar
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    Re: MLB Sets 2017-18 Qualifying Offer At $17.4MM

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    First, the difference is WAR between a 2B and SS is about a half a win, or around $3M a year. Not a big difference. But if teams see Cozart as a 2B or 3B, they would be more likely to offer him a longer deal, as that is where most SS end up as they age. Many of the teams I have listed are huge market teams, that have a history of overpaying. And some might then move their SS to 2B or 3B, since Cozart is the plus defender. In fact, I am guessing that is what will happen in most of these cases.

    And you are ignoring the Cardinals who need a SS.
    Maybe. I'm not a big believer in Paul Dejong, but he was a 23 year old who provided a 121 OPS+, was about league average on defense while playing enough to accumulate 443 PAs. They also still have Aledmys Diaz on hand who they probably wouldn't go with, but isn't the worst fall back. That's a way better SS situation than what we have here in Cincy going into 2018. The Cards may stay in house at that spot figuring they can piece that together. The Cards biggest need is on the mound. They need a starter and a closer. They could use an OF upgrade as well. Again, not seeing them as a big player for a SS. I could definitely see them adding a guy like Cozart on a late in the off-season bargain deal. Just about every team that "needs" a SS is in that situation at SS.

    The Reds have the worst SS situation of all 30 big league teams IMO. I just can't see Cozart so easily turning down a QO. There is no obvious big money deal for him out there. I think he's a pretty decent bet to get a $20 to $30 Million deal for 2 or 3 years, but why would he turn down well over half of that for one year? I think he'd need to be pretty confident of a $50 Million+ deal out there to turn down one season at $17.4 Million and I just don't see how can have that kind of confidence in this market.
    Last edited by mth123; 10-14-2017 at 02:09 PM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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    Re: MLB Sets 2017-18 Qualifying Offer At $17.4MM

    All really good points mth123.

    We will see
    The team Matheny described several times this weekend as the team he thinks the Cardinals could be, is actually the team the Reds have become.

  9. #38
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    Re: MLB Sets 2017-18 Qualifying Offer At $17.4MM

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Maybe. I'm not a big believer in Paul Dejong, but he was a 23 year old who provided a 121 OPS+, was about league average on defense while playing enough to accumulate 443 PAs. They also still have Aledmys Diaz on hand who they probably wouldn't go with, but isn't the worst fall back. That's a way better SS situation than what we have here in Cincy going into 2018. The Cards may stay in house at that spot figuring they can piece that together. The Cards biggest need is on the mound. They need a starter and a closer. They could use an OF upgrade as well. Again, not seeing them as a big player for a SS. I could definitely see them adding a guy like Cozart on a late in the off-season bargain deal. Just about every team that "needs" a SS is in that situation at SS.

    The Reds have the worst SS situation of all 30 big league teams IMO. I just can't see Cozart so easily turning down a QO. There is no obvious big money deal for him out there. I think he's a pretty decent bet to get a $20 to $30 Million deal for 2 or 3 years, but why would he turn down well over half of that for one year? I think he'd need to be pretty confident of a $50 Million+ deal out there to turn down one season at $17.4 Million and I just don't see how can have that kind of confidence in this market.
    The Reds have Suarez who can play SS. That alone makes it so they aren’t 30 out of 30.
    What would you say.....ya do here?

  10. #39
    Someday Never Comes mth123's Avatar
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    Re: MLB Sets 2017-18 Qualifying Offer At $17.4MM

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    The Reds have Suarez who can play SS. That alone makes it so they aren’t 30 out of 30.
    I hope you are right, but I don't see the Reds playing him there. For the record, I thought he was fine there and still think he'd be a better defensive option than Peraza, but I'm more and more convinced that the Reds aren't going to move him off of 3B now that he seems to established himself there as a plus option on offense and defense.

    I'm guessing Peraza will be the stomach turning every day SS and Senzel will spend a couple of months learning the OF in AAA. If he takes to it, he becomes the Reds RF. If not, the Reds make a move at the deadline to open a spot for him. Meanwhile, SS will still be left as a terrible hole on the roster.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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    Re: MLB Sets 2017-18 Qualifying Offer At $17.4MM

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I hope you are right, but I don't see the Reds playing him there. For the record, I thought he was fine there and still think he'd be a better defensive option than Peraza, but I'm more and more convinced that the Reds aren't going to move him off of 3B now that he seems to established himself there as a plus option on offense and defense.

    I'm guessing Peraza will be the stomach turning every day SS and Senzel will spend a couple of months learning the OF in AAA. If he takes to it, he becomes the Reds RF. If not, the Reds make a move at the deadline to open a spot for him. Meanwhile, SS will still be left as a terrible hole on the roster.
    If Senzel was going to be playing the OF he'd be playing it in winter ball somewhere

  12. #41
    Someday Never Comes mth123's Avatar
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    Re: MLB Sets 2017-18 Qualifying Offer At $17.4MM

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    If Senzel was going to be playing the OF he'd be playing it in winter ball somewhere
    Maybe, or maybe they give him a couple months in AAA. It didn't take Duvall much time to move out there. Mookie Betts had all of 45 Games as an OF right before becoming an every day OF in Boston. Moving from the IF didn't hurt his value much.

    There is still a possibility he shows up in Winter ball some place. Some guys don't even start playing until January.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

  13. #42
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: MLB Sets 2017-18 Qualifying Offer At $17.4MM

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Maybe, or maybe they give him a couple months in AAA. It didn't take Duvall much time to move out there. Mookie Betts had all of 45 Games as an OF right before becoming an every day OF in Boston. Moving from the IF didn't hurt his value much.

    There is still a possibility he shows up in Winter ball some place. Some guys don't even start playing until January.
    I mean is there even one article you can point to that shows the Reds are considering converting Senzel to the outfield?

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    Re: MLB Sets 2017-18 Qualifying Offer At $17.4MM

    Senzel was recovering from vertigo at the end of the year. I'd guess the Reds would be very wary of throwing him into winter ball.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

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    Re: MLB Sets 2017-18 Qualifying Offer At $17.4MM

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Senzel was recovering from vertigo at the end of the year. I'd guess the Reds would be very wary of throwing him into winter ball.
    Yet another reason I don't think they have any intention of changing his position

  16. #45
    Someday Never Comes mth123's Avatar
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    Re: MLB Sets 2017-18 Qualifying Offer At $17.4MM

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    I mean is there even one article you can point to that shows the Reds are considering converting Senzel to the outfield?
    Nope. It's just the most likely way that they can get all their best players on the field at one time. That should be the goal. It's fairly common for guys to go from the IF to the OF to make room for their bats. Since the Reds don't seem interested in Suarez at SS, they are saying they view Gennett as more of an everyday player than a reserve. There is no DH spot. It's either that or Trade Suarez. I think they should give this a chance first.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH


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