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Thread: Upcoming Baseball America Reds Top 10

  1. #1
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    Upcoming Baseball America Reds Top 10

    The annual Baseball America Reds top-10 prospect list will be coming out at some point as BA has started releasing their lists for some teams. I figured that some fans may want to release their personal top 10. I have mine below, although I always hesitate to rank any players that I have not seen or have not seen fairly recently. As I always caution, it will appear that there is a strong consensus on the order in certain sections of the list, but when you talk to veteran scouts, guys who are paid to be the best in the world at evaluating talent and have a track record, you find that it is easy to locate a scout who believes that the guy that everyone else has at #6 will be a better player than the guy who is higher on everyone's list. You can easily go back and look at prospect lists from 10 years ago and see how goofy they seem, based on the way things turned out. Here is my top 10 (assuming these players are off the list: Castillo, Winker, Garrett, Romano, R. Stephenson, Reed). My #5-8 guys could just about go in any order--I think those four are pretty close. The #10 spot was the hardest pick, but I am going to go with a guy who is closer to the big leagues than some of the other options:

    1) Nick Senzel, 3B
    2) Hunter Greene, RHP
    3) Taylor Trammell, OF
    4) Tyler Mahle, RHP
    5) Tony Santillan, RHP
    6) Vladimir Gutierrez, RHP
    7) Jose Siri, OF
    8) Tyler Stephenson, C
    9) Shed Long, 2B
    10) Jose Lopez, RHP

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    Re: Upcoming Baseball America Reds Top 10

    Quote Originally Posted by redsof72 View Post
    The annual Baseball America Reds top-10 prospect list will be coming out at some point as BA has started releasing their lists for some teams. I figured that some fans may want to release their personal top 10. I have mine below, although I always hesitate to rank any players that I have not seen or have not seen fairly recently. As I always caution, it will appear that there is a strong consensus on the order in certain sections of the list, but when you talk to veteran scouts, guys who are paid to be the best in the world at evaluating talent and have a track record, you find that it is easy to locate a scout who believes that the guy that everyone else has at #6 will be a better player than the guy who is higher on everyone's list. You can easily go back and look at prospect lists from 10 years ago and see how goofy they seem, based on the way things turned out. Here is my top 10 (assuming these players are off the list: Castillo, Winker, Garrett, Romano, R. Stephenson, Reed). My #5-8 guys could just about go in any order--I think those four are pretty close. The #10 spot was the hardest pick, but I am going to go with a guy who is closer to the big leagues than some of the other options:

    1) Nick Senzel, 3B
    2) Hunter Greene, RHP
    3) Taylor Trammell, OF
    4) Tyler Mahle, RHP
    5) Tony Santillan, RHP
    6) Vladimir Gutierrez, RHP
    7) Jose Siri, OF
    8) Tyler Stephenson, C
    9) Shed Long, 2B
    10) Jose Lopez, RHP
    I have a few questions. Siri's tools have been highly lauded for sure. The only worry for me would be K rate. Any thoughts on how it will hold up against more advanced pitching?

    You had a chance to see Moss. Can you project him? Where would he stand?

    You probably didn't see Downs, but may have talked to those who did. Will he stick at SS? Where would you think he would stand?

    Thanks. Your insights are much appreciated.

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    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Upcoming Baseball America Reds Top 10

    My Top 25 will come out next week, so I'll abstain from posting my list. That said, you can all get a sneak peak at the entire list (just names, no reports - though I am answering questions in the comments) at Patreon.com/RedsMinorLeagues if you support my work over there.

    But, I'll take a shot at answering RVH's questions.

    I'm not worried about Siri's K rate, specifically. It's the strikeout-to-walk ratio that I'm a little leery about. With that said, there were clear improvements in 2017 here. He looked much better this year than last. The slider is still an issue, but he looked better on just about every other kind of pitch. I'll also add that I think his strikeout-to-walk ratio would have been a little bit better in 2017 had his hit streak not happened. There were clearly times he was simply doing all he could to extend it, swinging at stuff he would take both earlier and later in the season, simply to try and get that hit.

    Moss, spoiler alert, didn't make my Top 25. The performance was there. The fastball just wasn't. Now, maybe he'll pick up more velo moving forward - I know the Reds believe that he will and that his injury history that limited his throwing leaves him plenty of room to pick up velo moving forward as he strengthens things - but I'm going to have to see that before I buy into it holding up over a long haul.

    Downs is more of a bat-first shortstop, but from those I've spoken with, they do think he'll be able to stay at short.

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    Re: Upcoming Baseball America Reds Top 10

    Quote Originally Posted by RED VAN HOT View Post
    I have a few questions. Siri's tools have been highly lauded for sure. The only worry for me would be K rate. Any thoughts on how it will hold up against more advanced pitching?

    You had a chance to see Moss. Can you project him? Where would he stand?

    You probably didn't see Downs, but may have talked to those who did. Will he stick at SS? Where would you think he would stand?

    Thanks. Your insights are much appreciated.
    Siri has the best tools of any Reds minor league player in many, many years. He has a very strong arm (though not quite as accurate as you would like--something that can be improved on), he has blazing speed, he has tremendous defensive skills in terms of playing a ball off the bat/instincts in center field and has the coordination to make great catches in any body position, he had the highest home run total for a Dayton player in 10 years, and he finished in the top five in the league in batting average. He made great improvement on pitch recognition in 2017, going from being totally overmatched in the same league in 2016 to being the best player in that league in 2017. He still has a long way to go in terms of pitch recognition. He will need to keep improving. Only time will tell if he can do that. Concern for me is this: He plays with an overflowing amount of emotion, wears his feelings on his sleeve, feeds off the positive emotion when things are going well, but allows the slumps and down times to hold him back. Visualize an NFL star wide receiver, ala Chad Johnson. Same kind of emotionally-driven style. He needs to learn to stay on more of an even level because he is going to go through some slumps as he moves up and faces better pitching. There is no crystal ball with Siri. Anyone who tells you they know what will happen is not worth listening to. He is a boom or bust type. If he booms, you are going to have a superstar major league player. Not a star, a superstar.

    Moss...needs to stay healthy and he did in 2017. Throws 90-91 but has excellent tilt that makes him better than the mediocre velocity would indicate. Key question: After missing all of two years due to multiple surgeries, will he add some velocity now that he is healthy? He certainly has the size and physical build where you could see him throw harder. If it happens, he will move up the lists. Meanwhile, he is a prospect worth watching. Hey, a year ago, who would have thought Jose Lopez would take the steps he did one more year removed from Tommy John.

    Jeter Downs...lots of opinions. I am going to hold off until I see him. I will say this: If a Rookie-ball player has questions of whether he can stay at shortstop, he usually doesn't stay at shortstop. Lets see. He did not hit well in 2017 at Billings. They hand out .300 batting averages in that league like bars of soap at a hotel, and he hit .267. OPS is overrated as a predictor of future performance in the low minors...it is a good measuring stick to his value to his team that particular season, but not a good predictor of future performance because you get Juan Silva types whose OPS is fed by taking a lot of pitches. You have to be able to hit to move up. I look at batting average and slugging percentage. If I had a stat for exit velocity, that would be even better. I don't know what to expect from this player, yet.

    Edit: Just some clarification on Siri: When I talk about pitch recognition, we are basically talking about the fact that he needs to be able to recognize in a split second that the pitch he thinks is a fastball headed for the outer half of the plate is not a fastball, but a slider that is going to break a few inches outside. He has to learn to recognize that pitch and take the pitch for a ball, rather than swinging at a pitch that he has no chance of hitting. That is what will determine Siri's future.
    Last edited by redsof72; 10-27-2017 at 03:39 PM.

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    Re: Upcoming Baseball America Reds Top 10

    My thanks to 72 and Doug for your thoughtful replies. The best part of RZ is the opportunity to learn more about the game and the prospects.

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    Re: Upcoming Baseball America Reds Top 10

    Draft time and the offseason are when the minor league forum really shines for me. Daily reports and players of the day are great, but threads like this and draft discussions are truly fun and informative


    Quote Originally Posted by RED VAN HOT View Post
    My thanks to 72 and Doug for your thoughtful replies. The best part of RZ is the opportunity to learn more about the game and the prospects.
    Last edited by JaxRed; 10-28-2017 at 09:02 AM.

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    Re: Upcoming Baseball America Reds Top 10

    I've got Shed Long higher than most, but that top 10 72 posted is pretty much my personal one as well.

    1. Senzel
    2. Greene
    3. Trammell
    4. Mahle
    5. Long
    6. Santillan
    7. Gutierrez
    8. Siri
    9. T. Stephenson
    10.J. Lopez

    Those who just missed, for me, include (but in no order): Moss, Friedl, Downs, Blandino, Longhi, Jesus Reyes, Herget, Heatherly, Miles Gordon, and Aquino. That's off the top of my head, and I may have missed a couple obvious ones.

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    Re: Upcoming Baseball America Reds Top 10

    How is Stephenson's defense? MLB gives him a 50 which I would think is quite good given his age. If the arm strength and agility are there, other aspects of his catching defense should continue to improve with experience.

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    Re: Upcoming Baseball America Reds Top 10

    72 and Doug
    Have you heard any reports on Tyler Mondile and how the Reds see him? He seemed to have a few good stretches in Billings with the age appropriate hiccups too.

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    Re: Upcoming Baseball America Reds Top 10

    Quote Originally Posted by redsof72 View Post
    Jeter Downs...lots of opinions. I am going to hold off until I see him. I will say this: If a Rookie-ball player has questions of whether he can stay at shortstop, he usually doesn't stay at shortstop. Lets see. He did not hit well in 2017 at Billings. They hand out .300 batting averages in that league like bars of soap at a hotel, and he hit .267. OPS is overrated as a predictor of future performance in the low minors...it is a good measuring stick to his value to his team that particular season, but not a good predictor of future performance because you get Juan Silva types whose OPS is fed by taking a lot of pitches. You have to be able to hit to move up. I look at batting average and slugging percentage. If I had a stat for exit velocity, that would be even better. I don't know what to expect from this player, yet.
    I appreciate the insight, redsof72. The one defense I'd throw out there for Downs is that while it's true that there were 26 guys in the Pioneer League who hit .300 last year, only four of those guys were teenagers (including Miles Gordon) and all four of those players played professional ball in 2016. I think it is still impressive that Downs held his own as an 18-year old in his first professional season.

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    Re: Upcoming Baseball America Reds Top 10

    Quote Originally Posted by RiverRat13 View Post
    I appreciate the insight, redsof72. The one defense I'd throw out there for Downs is that while it's true that there were 26 guys in the Pioneer League who hit .300 last year, only four of those guys were teenagers (including Miles Gordon) and all four of those players played professional ball in 2016. I think it is still impressive that Downs held his own as an 18-year old in his first professional season.
    That's a good point.

    As a teenager, he has a couple of years before he has to start showing that big bat.

    Should he move to Dayton (as I think likely), he'll have every opportunity-- and at least a couple of seasons-- to show what he can do.
    Last edited by Bourgeois Zee; 10-29-2017 at 01:01 PM.

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    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Upcoming Baseball America Reds Top 10

    I'm bullish on Downs and Gordon. I don't know where I'd rank Santillan. My main thought on him is I'd trade him. Scott Moss is the arm from Dayton who intrigues me most.
    Wait until the year after next year.

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    Re: Upcoming Baseball America Reds Top 10

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I'm bullish on Downs and Gordon. I don't know where I'd rank Santillan. My main thought on him is I'd trade him. Scott Moss is the arm from Dayton who intrigues me most.
    Wouldn't make much sense to trade a guy like Santillan until we see what he can do. Value isn't going to be high enough after only pitching in low A. Next year will be very telling for him. As for Moss, if he can't regain some velocity he seems like a loogy/long man at best.

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    Re: Upcoming Baseball America Reds Top 10

    Quote Originally Posted by ochoa30 View Post
    Wouldn't make much sense to trade a guy like Santillan until we see what he can do. Value isn't going to be high enough after only pitching in low A. Next year will be very telling for him. As for Moss, if he can't regain some velocity he seems like a loogy/long man at best.
    The Reds might be talking deals where they need to move a prospect arm as part of the equation. In that case, Santillan's a guy I'd move. He has some value and I'm not sure that's going up in the future. He's headed to the FSL, which is a place that can make a pitching prospect look real shiny. I'm not going to be offended if they keep him, but, to me, he looks more like an asset you move than one you keep. So somewhere while his value window is still open, I'd be shipping him.
    Wait until the year after next year.

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    Re: Upcoming Baseball America Reds Top 10

    You seem to have a major issue with high school arms in general, M2.

    Only Mahle seems immune to that blanket dismissal.


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