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Thread: Upcoming Baseball America Reds Top 10

  1. #16
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    Re: Upcoming Baseball America Reds Top 10

    My guess is M2 has same aversion to high school arms that i do ....you have to plan for one tommy john surgery before they make it to age 24....thus you don't know what you really have until they have that surgery and come back.

    Moss is 24 and everyone tends to report he's old for the league --i never understand that...his positives related to the fact that he's 24 and has his TJ surgery out of the way....all positives.

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  3. #17
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Upcoming Baseball America Reds Top 10

    Quote Originally Posted by Cooper View Post
    My guess is M2 has same aversion to high school arms that i do ....you have to plan for one tommy john surgery before they make it to age 24....thus you don't know what you really have until they have that surgery and come back.

    Moss is 24 and everyone tends to report he's old for the league --i never understand that...his positives related to the fact that he's 24 and has his TJ surgery out of the way....all positives.
    His TJ and second arm surgery also led to him throwing all of 150 innings since he left high school. And he's 24.

    So, massive inexperience and two arm surgeries.... positives?

    Come on, man.

  4. #18
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    Re: Upcoming Baseball America Reds Top 10

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I'm bullish on Downs and Gordon. I don't know where I'd rank Santillan. My main thought on him is I'd trade him. Scott Moss is the arm from Dayton who intrigues me most.
    As someone who got to see both guys pitch in person on a semi-regular basis, I'd take Santillan over Moss and it's not particularly close. Santillan's stuff is appreciably better and while he's sometimes battled with inconsistency his ceiling is so much higher than Moss's ceiling.

  5. #19
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Upcoming Baseball America Reds Top 10

    Quote Originally Posted by nmculbreth View Post
    As someone who got to see both guys pitch in person on a semi-regular basis, I'd take Santillan over Moss and it's not particularly close. Santillan's stuff is appreciably better and while he's sometimes battled with inconsistency his ceiling is so much higher than Moss's ceiling.
    Santillan's slider was often enough harder than Moss's fastball. That speaks to what Santillan can do just as much as it does what Moss needs to do more of.

  6. #20
    Overton Window Breaker WrongVerb's Avatar
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    Re: Upcoming Baseball America Reds Top 10

    Moss was a fourth round pick for a reason. If the Reds get a Logan Ondrusek type career out of him, it'll be a success. That said, I wish him the best.

    Santillian strikes me as a guy who's seen "it" click. Can't wait to see how far he goes.
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  8. #21
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Upcoming Baseball America Reds Top 10

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    You seem to have a major issue with high school arms in general, M2.

    Only Mahle seems immune to that blanket dismissal.
    Got nothing to do with HS arms. Used to be bullish on Stephenson until his control issues proved to be persistent and his theoretical plus-plus stuff didn't materialize Still think he was a fine pick, though keeping him might not have been the way to realize his value. Liked the Mark Armstrong pick, but arm injuries have gotten in the way. Loved the Tommy Mace pick, but they didn't sign him.

    Anyway, the Reds aren't great at producing pitchers. I don't think that's news. In general they ought to deal a fair amount of them. Mahle's been the valedictorian, IMO, of the system's pitching development. Castillo's the best arm for whom they've dealt. If they had better pitchers, I'd like them more.
    Wait until the year after next year.

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  10. #22
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    Re: Upcoming Baseball America Reds Top 10

    Quote Originally Posted by nmculbreth View Post
    As someone who got to see both guys pitch in person on a semi-regular basis, I'd take Santillan over Moss and it's not particularly close. Santillan's stuff is appreciably better and while he's sometimes battled with inconsistency his ceiling is so much higher than Moss's ceiling.
    I'm skeptical Santillan's getting all that close to his ceiling. He's got potential. I'm not saying he's terrible, just that I think his inconsistency is more than likely to get the best of him (and the Reds don't seem to be a great fit for his type).

    Just as aside for the group, Moss just turned 23. I don't know that he'll be good, but he's got the frame to throw a lot more fastball (and a history of throwing it). He seems to be the guy with the most "something different" potential in the organization, which is what intrigues me about him.
    Wait until the year after next year.

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    Re: Upcoming Baseball America Reds Top 10

    According to Doug, Winker is eligible for the list. Where do you have him in the top 10?

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    Re: Upcoming Baseball America Reds Top 10

    Quote Originally Posted by Little Earl View Post
    According to Doug, Winker is eligible for the list. Where do you have him in the top 10?
    I'd rank him fourth at this point.

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    Re: Upcoming Baseball America Reds Top 10

    Quote Originally Posted by RED VAN HOT View Post
    How is Stephenson's defense? MLB gives him a 50 which I would think is quite good given his age. If the arm strength and agility are there, other aspects of his catching defense should continue to improve with experience.
    Defense at the catcher position...it takes a little longer for a high school prospect to develop catch and throw skills than the defense at most other positions. The reasons I think are pretty obvious. Not many high school catchers have ever caught a pitcher with the velocity and movement that you see in the minors, nor have they really worked on the footwork and balance required to throw well. He has worked a lot with Corky Miller. Mesoraco in Dayton was very raw defensively. Tyler shows enough to give you hope that he will become an adequate to pretty decent defensive catcher. He has a good enough arm. He has improved his blocking skills. Most importantly, he works hard and understands that he has to work to get better. He is not going to be a Barnhart or even a Hudson but he should be ok. Tyler improved his game tremendously from 2016 to 2017 and I am excited to see what he can do in 2018. Some people here have expressed disappointment in his progress but I like him and think he has a lot of potential.

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    Re: Upcoming Baseball America Reds Top 10

    Quote Originally Posted by Little Earl View Post
    According to Doug, Winker is eligible for the list. Where do you have him in the top 10?
    I have always been higher on Winker than most and always felt that he would hit for power. He lacks speed and his defense is just ok, but I still like Winker a lot and hope he gets 450+ plate appearances with the Reds in 2018. He is going to be a good major league player. Where to rank him? I love Trammell as a prospect and it is hard to compare a big leaguer with a Single-A player. I would have Winker at 3 or 4. If I had to commit to one or the other, I would probably go 3 just because he is closer to a finished project. But Trammell is the real thing, unlike some of the other outfielders that have come up in recent years that people tried to tell you were prospects, and you looked and you said, I don't see it. With Trammell, I see it. He might end up being better than Winker, but he is a more of a risk just because he is so much less developed.
    Last edited by redsof72; 10-30-2017 at 08:46 PM.

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  17. #27
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    Re: Upcoming Baseball America Reds Top 10

    Quote Originally Posted by Little Earl View Post
    According to Doug, Winker is eligible for the list. Where do you have him in the top 10?
    I like proximity and I love OB, but his power is suspect and defense is not good. It gives me questions about his total value. I'd rank a number of higher risk guys in front of him, probably have Winker in the 6-10 range.
    Wait until the year after next year.

  18. #28
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    Re: Upcoming Baseball America Reds Top 10

    I think a full season of Winker right now gives you 25 home runs and the second highest obp on the team. Although it's close, I'd have to rank him third, above Trammel and Mahle. It is tough, because Trammel could easily end up being the better player, and Mahle can be a dependable 3 for some time to come, but I think Winker's production right now is enough. Of course I believe in his power.
    “It is quite possible--overwhelmingly probable, one might guess--that we will always learn more about human life and personality from novels than from scientific psychology” ― Noam Chomsky

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  20. #29
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    Re: Upcoming Baseball America Reds Top 10

    Quote Originally Posted by marcshoe View Post
    I think a full season of Winker right now gives you 25 home runs and the second highest obp on the team.
    Winker's hit 27 HR over his past three seasons (365 games).

    Here's a Winker question: he's going to play in the majors and he has OB skills, meanwhile Hunter Greene throws hella hard, but he's barely pitched in pro ball and his breaking ball is raw. It's entirely possible Greene never plays a game in the majors. So how do we weigh Winker's small MLB sample size, athletic limitations and seemingly durable OB skills vs. Greene's physical gifts, hype and massive unknowns? They're about as polar opposite as two prospects get.
    Wait until the year after next year.

  21. #30
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    Re: Upcoming Baseball America Reds Top 10

    There are those who think that Winker's wrist injury caused his recent power drought. I'm not sure how it shakes out, but watching him on MiLB TV this past season, I thought his swing/bat speed/contact looked conducive to hitting for more power. If I have time tomorrow, I'll see whether there are any stats that back this up.

    My 25 homer thoughts are based not the trend over the last few years of players hitting home runs at a better rate in the majors than the minors, which is likely mostly due to the juiced baseball being used. Winker certainly showed more power after his call-up. I think he still hits 15-20 with a non-juiced ball, though. Hopefully, we'll find out for sure this year, although that will likely take a trade of one of the corner guys.

    Of course Hunter is being considered so high because he has rare potential. I'm not sure you can compare the way he's being evaluated with most players.
    “It is quite possible--overwhelmingly probable, one might guess--that we will always learn more about human life and personality from novels than from scientific psychology” ― Noam Chomsky

    “Reading is the sole means by which we slip, involuntarily, often helplessly, into another’s skin.” -- Joyce Carol Oates

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