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Thread: Upcoming Baseball America Reds Top 10

  1. #31
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Upcoming Baseball America Reds Top 10

    I don't think there's a team around that would give you more in trade for Jesse Winker than they would for Hunter Greene. So, that's how I would weigh it.

    I also think you your way too down on Winker's power, M2. I'm not quite there with marcshoe on 25 bombs next year, but 15 seems incredibly reasonable in the big leagues.

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  4. #32
    .377 in 1905 CySeymour's Avatar
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    Re: Upcoming Baseball America Reds Top 10

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I don't think there's a team around that would give you more in trade for Jesse Winker than they would for Hunter Greene. So, that's how I would weigh it.

    I also think you your way too down on Winker's power, M2. I'm not quite there with marcshoe on 25 bombs next year, but 15 seems incredibly reasonable in the big leagues.
    Doug, why did Winker seem to show more power in the National League than he did in AAA this season?
    ...the 2-2 to Woodsen and here it comes...and it is swung on and missed! And Tom Browning has pitched a perfect game! Twenty-seven outs in a row, and he is being mobbed by his teammates, just to the thirdbase side of the mound.

  5. #33
    Member marcshoe's Avatar
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    Re: Upcoming Baseball America Reds Top 10

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I don't think there's a team around that would give you more in trade for Jesse Winker than they would for Hunter Greene. So, that's how I would weigh it.

    I also think you your way too down on Winker's power, M2. I'm not quite there with marcshoe on 25 bombs next year, but 15 seems incredibly reasonable in the big leagues.
    Okay, then, 50!

    After last year I'm assuming that everyone will hit five to ten more home runs than they should. Then they'll switch back to dead-ball-era ball, and there will be an overcorrection. Or something like that.
    “It is quite possible--overwhelmingly probable, one might guess--that we will always learn more about human life and personality from novels than from scientific psychology” ― Noam Chomsky

  6. #34
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Upcoming Baseball America Reds Top 10

    Quote Originally Posted by CySeymour View Post
    Doug, why did Winker seem to show more power in the National League than he did in AAA this season?
    Well, the baseball is indeed different. But, GABP, and the NL in general, is far more HR friendly than Louisville is. Also worth noting that Winker began some mechanical changes in the second half in Louisville to work on getting more power from his swing.

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  8. #35
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    Re: Upcoming Baseball America Reds Top 10

    I really like Winker and think his skillset is going to be particularly valuable to the Reds given the lack of OBP among the regular lineup but I struggle to see a ceiling any higher than a league average LF given that he adds no value defensively or on the basepaths and doesn't have plus power to go along with his OBP skills.

  9. #36
    Member marcshoe's Avatar
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    Re: Upcoming Baseball America Reds Top 10

    (DH)
    “It is quite possible--overwhelmingly probable, one might guess--that we will always learn more about human life and personality from novels than from scientific psychology” ― Noam Chomsky

  10. #37
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    Re: Upcoming Baseball America Reds Top 10

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Well, the baseball is indeed different. But, GABP, and the NL in general, is far more HR friendly than Louisville is. Also worth noting that Winker began some mechanical changes in the second half in Louisville to work on getting more power from his swing.
    This may explain why I was more impressed with his swing than I expected when I picked up MiLB TV late in the year.
    “It is quite possible--overwhelmingly probable, one might guess--that we will always learn more about human life and personality from novels than from scientific psychology” ― Noam Chomsky

  11. #38
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    Re: Upcoming Baseball America Reds Top 10

    Quote Originally Posted by nmculbreth View Post
    I really like Winker and think his skillset is going to be particularly valuable to the Reds given the lack of OBP among the regular lineup but I struggle to see a ceiling any higher than a league average LF given that he adds no value defensively or on the basepaths and doesn't have plus power to go along with his OBP skills.
    High OBP should be a strength of the Reds for the next several years with Winker and Senzel both coming up. They both project to be have around a .400 OBP based upon their minors #'s...

    Winker...
    Senzel
    Votto
    Schebler
    Suarez...
    SS
    CF
    Barnhart

  12. #39
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Upcoming Baseball America Reds Top 10

    Quote Originally Posted by bellhead View Post
    High OBP should be a strength of the Reds for the next several years with Winker and Senzel both coming up. They both project to be have around a .400 OBP based upon their minors #'s...

    Winker...
    Senzel
    Votto
    Schebler
    Suarez...
    SS
    CF
    Barnhart
    No one projects to have a .400 OBP who hasn't done so multiple times in the Major Leagues. It's rare air to be a .400 OBP guy. Over the last three MLB seasons only 24 of 431 qualified hitters have had a .400 OBP season.

    Of those 24 seasons Mike Trout, Joey Votto, Paul Goldschmidt and Freddie Freeman make up 11 of those seasons. No other player has done it twice in that span.
    Last edited by dougdirt; 10-31-2017 at 02:22 PM. Reason: typing is VERY DIFFICULT

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  14. #40
    Overton Window Breaker WrongVerb's Avatar
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    Re: Upcoming Baseball America Reds Top 10

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    No one projects to have a .400 OBP who hasn't done so multiple times in the Major Leagues. It's rare air to be a .400 OBP guy. Over hte last three MLB seasons only 24 of 431 qualified hitters have had a .400 BOP season.

    Of those 24 seasons Mike Trout, Joey Votto, Paul Goldschmidt and Freddie Freeman make up 11 of those seasons. No other player has done it twice in that span.
    In my mind, .350 is the goal.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there always has been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that “my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge." -- Isaac Asimov

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    Re: Upcoming Baseball America Reds Top 10

    For me I'm higher on Winker, I honestly like Winker more than Greene. I know that Greene's ceiling is extremely high, but at this point his floor is extremely low. I would have felt better about Greene if he was a SS. I also like Trammell a lot. I would have him and Greene at 3 or 4 in the system, which I believe is a system that most lists under value. (MLB and BA). Ive never understood the problem with Winker's power. I think he had wrist issues those 2 years that he basically did not hit many homers. Remember when Votto was hurt in 14 and he had no power... It is hard to hit when you are not 100% healthy. I like Winker's chances of becoming an Allstar for a good team. Also I like Blandino, he would not be in my top 10, but I like his OBP and his power especially after being healthier this year from last seasons injury.

  17. #42
    Member Kinsm's Avatar
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    Re: Upcoming Baseball America Reds Top 10

    .400 OBP? Count me in for some of that.

  18. #43
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    Re: Upcoming Baseball America Reds Top 10

    Quote Originally Posted by 3rdrich View Post
    For me I'm higher on Winker, I honestly like Winker more than Greene. I know that Greene's ceiling is extremely high, but at this point his floor is extremely low. I would have felt better about Greene if he was a SS. I also like Trammell a lot. I would have him and Greene at 3 or 4 in the system, which I believe is a system that most lists under value. (MLB and BA). Ive never understood the problem with Winker's power. I think he had wrist issues those 2 years that he basically did not hit many homers. Remember when Votto was hurt in 14 and he had no power... It is hard to hit when you are not 100% healthy. I like Winker's chances of becoming an Allstar for a good team. Also I like Blandino, he would not be in my top 10, but I like his OBP and his power especially after being healthier this year from last seasons injury.

    I was in the same boat as you until instructional leagues this year. The reports on Greene are off the charts and are fantastic, to have late break & movement on a fastball that is upper 90's is something only a handful of pitchers have. He actually has the makings of a true #1 pitcher.

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  20. #44
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Upcoming Baseball America Reds Top 10

    For those of you who aren't as high on Hunter Greene....

    I wish you could hear and see the way people who have watched him play speak and look while speaking about him and the things they saw.

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  22. #45
    Member paulrichjr's Avatar
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    Re: Upcoming Baseball America Reds Top 10

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    For those of you who aren't as high on Hunter Greene....

    I wish you could hear and see the way people who have watched him play speak and look while speaking about him and the things they saw.
    Why is that necessary? We saw the results from what 4.5 innings this year? That should be more than enough time to tell that the Reds and Dick Williams are morons and blew another pick. Besides those that are not "high on him" have the benefit of never scouting him and never actually seeing him pitch.
    Tim McCarver: Baseball Quotes
    I remember one time going out to the mound to talk with Bob Gibson. He told me to get back behind the batter, that the only thing I knew about pitching was that it was hard to hit.

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