Secret of their success: get a SS

[M2]

This is coincidence, but it's too much coincidence not to have some merit.

Take a look at the 8 teams that made the division series. They were populated by a who's who of next-gen shortstops.

Astros - Correa
Dodgers - Seager
Yankees - Didi
Cubs - Russell
Nats - Turner
Red Sox - Bogaerts
Indians - Lindor
DBacks - Marte

Fine, Ketel Marte is the odd duck of the bunch, but 7/8 ain't bad (better odds than you'll ever get from Meatloaf).

Obviously SS was not the problem for the 2017 Reds. Zack Cozart had a career year, though injuries got in his way. The Reds failed for other reasons. Thing is, there's a strong possibility he's played his last game as a Red. Even if he hasn't, he's getting old for the position. The Reds are still rebuilding and we can see how young shortstops are impacting the game.

Unfortunately the Reds don't seem to have one of those in-house. Their nominal young SS would need to improve just to be replacement level. Jeter Downs had an encouraging season in rookie ball, but he's four years away if he's coming at all. Outside of that it's just good-glove, no-bat guys. So how do the Reds keep up with the Joneses? We're in an era that's starting to be shaped by these young shortstops. As someone who's baseball brain was forged around Davey Concepcion and Barry Larkin, I don't want the Reds to miss out.

[Kc61]

Partially agree, but SS is not the linchpin. If it were, Reds would have been a much better team in 2017 with Cozart’s season. If there is a linchpin it is pitching.

The 8 playoff teams you listed included the 7 best team ERAs in baseball. The outlier was Houston, whose team ERA was still more than a full run better than the Reds.

But you’re right that two-way players up the middle are key. Most teams have corner men who can hit. But those offense-defense guys up the middle have enormous value.

The unit of Bench, Concepcion, Morgan and Geronimo was perhaps the clearest example.

[M2]

Partially agree, but SS is not the linchpin.

IMO, it's becoming increasingly important in putting a team over the top. It's one of the main keys to a deep team. The Reds are going to be in a division with Russell/Baez, Arcia (who's good at age 22 and is headed toward very good) and DeJong (if he's for real). Having a multi-faceted SS won't turn you into an instant winner by itself, but the lack of one could make it difficult to get into the playoff mix.

That's my concern - that it's an increasingly necessary piece and the Reds don't have it.

[LoganBuck]

This is coincidence, but it's too much coincidence not to have some merit.

Take a look at the 8 teams that made the division series. They were populated by a who's who of next-gen shortstops.

Astros - Correa
Dodgers - Seager
Yankees - Didi
Cubs - Russell
Nats - Turner
Red Sox - Bogaerts
Indians - Lindor
DBacks - Marte

Fine, Ketel Marte is the odd duck of the bunch, but 7/8 ain't bad (better odds than you'll ever get from Meatloaf).

Obviously SS was not the problem for the 2017 Reds. Zack Cozart had a career year, though injuries got in his way. The Reds failed for other reasons. Thing is, there's a strong possibility he's played his last game as a Red. Even if he hasn't, he's getting old for the position. The Reds are still rebuilding and we can see how young shortstops are impacting the game.

Unfortunately the Reds don't seem to have one of those in-house. Their nominal young SS would need to improve just to be replacement level. Jeter Downs had an encouraging season in rookie ball, but he's four years away if he's coming at all. Outside of that it's just good-glove, no-bat guys. So how do the Reds keep up with the Joneses? We're in an era that's starting to be shaped by these young shortstops. As someone who's baseball brain was forged around Davey Concepcion and Barry Larkin, I don't want the Reds to miss out.

I won't pretend to know what Miguel Hernandez, Jose Garcia, or Jeter Downs can be. If the pitching thing doesn't work out for Hunter Greene, he could transition back to SS too. But I do know that suddenly the position is absolutely stacked at the major league level. So much so that the Reds have been trying to market Zack Cozart for over a year, and haven't had takers. Brice Turang is someone that will be available early in the draft. But I don't know if he is what we are looking for in this equation. He seems a little light with the bat for my taste.

I would try to find a reasonable deal with Cozart, and continue to have Peraza as a back up SS.

[dougdirt]

I won't pretend to know what Miguel Hernandez, Jose Garcia, or Jeter Downs can be. If the pitching thing doesn't work out for Hunter Greene, he could transition back to SS too. But I do know that suddenly the position is absolutely stacked at the major league level. So much so that the Reds have been trying to market Zack Cozart for over a year, and haven't had takers. Brice Turang is someone that will be available early in the draft. But I don't know if he is what we are looking for in this equation. He seems a little light with the bat for my taste.

I would try to find a reasonable deal with Cozart, and continue to have Peraza as a back up SS.

Even if Garcia, Downs, Hernandez, or even Hunter Greene wind up a very good shortstop, the best odds say that it's still 3 years away for any of them to be in the big leagues. It's going to be a lot longer than that if the guy is Hunter Greene, who there's next to no way they try moving to shortstop within the next five years.

The Reds need to go outside the org to get a shortstop if they want to have a shortstop that can actually hit in the next 3-4 years. Peraza, for as much as I think he can hit for a good average in the big leagues, still isn't going to be a good hitter because he's got no power at all. There might be 10 homers in there if he stops swinging from his front foot, but in this era with shortstops, that's still nowhere near enough.

[Kc61]

It's just not the biggest priority. Pitching is. You can compensate for having a weaker offensive shortstop. You cannot compensate for a 5.17 ERA, which was higher most of the season.

I agree with M2 that to "put the team over the top" shortstop needs to be addressed. Right now, after watching the playoff teams, the Reds aren't particularly close.

[dougdirt]

It's just not the biggest priority. Pitching is. You can compensate for having a weaker offensive shortstop. You cannot compensate for a 5.17 ERA, which was higher most of the season.

I agree with M2 that to "put the team over the top" shortstop needs to be addressed. Right now, after watching the playoff teams, the Reds aren't particularly close.

I keep hearing this, but I'm just not sure it's true.

The 2017 Reds offense was significantly further away from the Houston Astros offense than the 2017 Cincinnati pitching staff was from the Astros pitching staff. Like, not even remotely close. The Reds pitching was significantly closer to the Astros than their offense was. And the Reds offense is likely to be worse in 2018 than it was in 2017 without something changing.

[InsaneinthBrame]

I keep hearing this, but I'm just not sure it's true.

The 2017 Reds offense was significantly further away from the Houston Astros offense than the 2017 Cincinnati pitching staff was from the Astros pitching staff. Like, not even remotely close. The Reds pitching was significantly closer to the Astros than their offense was. And the Reds offense is likely to be worse in 2018 than it was in 2017 without something changing.

That is not true the pitching gave up 169 more runs while the hitting was 143 runs away from the Astros edit: and that does not account for DH

[dougdirt]

That is not true the pitching gave up 169 more runs while the hitting was 143 runs away from the Astros edit: and that does not account for DH

Reds ERA+ in 2017: 85
Astros ERA+ in 2017: 96

Difference: 11

Reds OPS+ in 2017: 98
Astros OPS+ in 2017: 127

Difference: 29

The Reds pitching staff was much closer to the Astros than the Reds offense was to the Astros. It's not even remotely close.

[Falls City Beer]

Reds ERA+ in 2017: 85
Astros ERA+ in 2017: 96

Difference: 11

Reds OPS+ in 2017: 98
Astros OPS+ in 2017: 127

Difference: 29

The Reds pitching staff was much closer to the Astros than the Reds offense was to the Astros. It's not even remotely close.

The good news is the Reds can contend with a non-Astros offense. The bad news is they have probably the worst pitching in MLB.

[InsaneinthBrame]

Reds ERA+ in 2017: 85
Astros ERA+ in 2017: 96

Difference: 11

Reds OPS+ in 2017: 98
Astros OPS+ in 2017: 127

Difference: 29

The Reds pitching staff was much closer to the Astros than the Reds offense was to the Astros. It's not even remotely close.

That is not an apples to apples example comparison

Actually Runs is the ultimate in determining differences because that is the only stat that actually matters especially with production.

[Kc61]

I keep hearing this, but I'm just not sure it's true.

The 2017 Reds offense was significantly further away from the Houston Astros offense than the 2017 Cincinnati pitching staff was from the Astros pitching staff. Like, not even remotely close. The Reds pitching was significantly closer to the Astros than their offense was. And the Reds offense is likely to be worse in 2018 than it was in 2017 without something changing.

As the previous poster noted, Astros scored 143 runs more than Reds. But the runs allowed differential is higher, Reds allowed 169 more runs and 159 more earned runs than Astros.

Pitching differential in fWAR was 20.8 for Houston and 3.7 for Cincy. Not particularly close.

Further, putting aside the full year differences, the Astros obtained Verlander at the deadline. This is a move the Reds would never, ever make given the salary commitment. So the pitching gap is very wide.

[InsaneinthBrame]

The Reds if they were to expect to compete this year could easily have a 130 Million Dollar payroll. This would allow them to pay Cozart for 3 years as stop gap until one of the young guys emerge.
The plan looks like they are going to go cheap and use Peraza who could be ok with the Bat and glove.
I also think we are overstating the next generation of SS a lot of them are like a young Cozart more glove than bat. Example is Addison Russel who was 1.4 war player. Arcia 1.2
Lindor, Seager, Turner and Correa are way ahead of the other young SS

We need to fix the pitching because you could put the best position player at each position on the Reds and still lose 90 games (ok maybe not)

[M2]

The Reds if they were to expect to compete this year could easily have a 130 Million Dollar payroll. This would allow them to pay Cozart for 3 years as stop gap until one of the young guys emerge.

They have one young guy, and three years is an aggressive timetable for him. On top of that, a stopgap SS might keep the team from getting over the top during that window. On top of that, he's probably leaving.

The Reds are a rebuilding team. Time to look for what's next.

[InsaneinthBrame]

They have one young guy, and three years is an aggressive timetable for him. On top of that, a stopgap SS might keep the team from getting over the top during that window. On top of that, he's probably leaving.

The Reds are a rebuilding team. Time to look for what's next.

I was not saying that are expected to compete. Because I expect another 90 loss team. I was just saying they could just spend money on Cozart if they were. Right now it does not matter who is SS until they fix the pitching.
Because we will not compete in 2018 I would like to see what Peraza can do. He is a better hitter than he showed last year (he is only 23 and can improve with the bat). He has potential to be a a leadoff hitter 290 BA 350 OBP
Getting a SS of the future would not be a bad idea. The young SS I would like to get is Wade of the Yankees. But that organization has so much talent I do not think we have anything that they would want.