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Thread: Secret of their success: get a SS

  1. #16
    Member Mitri's Avatar
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    Re: Secret of their success: get a SS

    Do we have such low expectations in the Reds brass to think they can’t attempt both in one offseason?

    They can handle it. Peraza projects to be one the weakest everyday players in baseball and has a chance to be worse than his projections. And there’s absolutely no help in sight. How the team allowed their SS situation become this dire says it all, really. So yeah, they need to alter their approach ASAP.

    And I agree that while the pitching needs a major overhaul, we likely won’t be seeing much more than 2-3 new acquisitions that will make a difference. Whether we like it or not 2018 will be another year of sorting, filing and building innings/workload.

    So let’s make SS the co-#1 priority.

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  4. #17
    Overton Window Breaker WrongVerb's Avatar
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    Re: Secret of their success: get a SS

    I posted this in the Cozart thread, but it seems apropos here as well:

    Thinking out loud, who could be acquired via trade if the Reds don't believe in Peraza as a SS? Here are some names off the top of my head:

    Dansby Swanson
    Addison Russell
    Marcus Semien
    Ketel Marte
    Brandon Crawford
    Jurickson Profar
    Trevor Story
    Jorge Polanco

    Who am I missing?
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there always has been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that “my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge." -- Isaac Asimov

  5. #18
    Member Mitri's Avatar
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    Re: Secret of their success: get a SS

    Baez if the Cubs keep Russell

  6. #19
    Someday Never Comes mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Secret of their success: get a SS

    Quote Originally Posted by Mitri View Post
    Do we have such low expectations in the Reds brass to think they can’t attempt both in one offseason?

    They can handle it. Peraza projects to be one the weakest everyday players in baseball and has a chance to be worse than his projections. And there’s absolutely no help in sight. How the team allowed their SS situation become this dire says it all, really. So yeah, they need to alter their approach ASAP.

    And I agree that while the pitching needs a major overhaul, we likely won’t be seeing much more than 2-3 new acquisitions that will make a difference. Whether we like it or not 2018 will be another year of sorting, filing and building innings/workload.

    So let’s make SS the co-#1 priority.
    This is why the trade with LA was such a loser. I get that Schebler has basically produced fairly similar results to Frazier and seems to justify the deal, but making this deal, the Reds hitched their wagon to Peraza as a central figure in the future and it simply seems no less a mistake now than it was when the deal was made. I know this will sound crazy, but I'd have probably liked the trade better (but still hated it) if it was Frazier for Schebler straight up. The decision to go with the wrong guy can set the team back years. It's worse then selling cheap IMO.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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  8. #20
    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
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    Re: Secret of their success: get a SS

    Suarez was supposed to be the SS guy then third opened up and Cozart started hitting so why move Zack? Then Peraza was supposed to be that guy but 2nd base was open and all he hits is singles, when he hits. Then Alfredo was supposed to be the guy except he can't hit at all. Just a jumble of bad decisions, miscalculations, over estimating talent, and bad luck with injuries. SS, an entire pitching staff except closer, a CF who can hit AND field, at least left field is finally solved.

    History of "rebuild"

    Jun 2014 Reds sign Raisel Iglesias, an IFA, surprising everyone

    Oct 2014 Reds finish 76-86 4th place

    Dec 2014 Simon for Suarez and Crawford. Great trade for the Reds. They seem to be best when trading average starters for young potential. Grade A

    Dec 2014 Latos to Marlins for Desclafani and Wallach. Great trade even considering Disco's injuries. Grade B - only the injuries keep it from A.

    Jun 2015 Reds draft Tyler Stephenson, Tony Santillan, Miles Gordon and Jimmy Herget

    July 2015 Cueto to Royals for Finnegan, Reed & Lamb. No matter how good the trade looked for both sides at the time, the Royals stole this one. Cueto was instrumental in their post season while Finny has been hurt, Reed turns out to have yips and Lamb is gone. At the time I gave the trade an A, hindsight calls it F

    Jul 2015 Leake for Duvall and Mella. Another good trade. Another average starter for young potential. Grade B

    Aug 2015 Byrd to Giants for Stephen Johnson. Such a non entity of a deal. Byrd is gone and the Reds got left holding the Johnson.

    Oct 2015 Reds finish 64-98 5th place

    Dec 2015 Frazier in 3 way for Peraza, Dixon and Schebler. Really ripped at the time the returns in hindsight aren't that bad. Grade C. While the Reds strongly over valued Peraza for some reason everyone under estimated Schebler. Of course the Sox got Blake Rutherford and 3 other prospects from the Yanks for Todd & a couple relievers. Imagine if the Reds packaged Chapman & Frazier to the Yanks in the first place - say for as of then still minor leaguer Aaron Judge and a couple other pieces. As is the Frazier deal didn't hurt the Reds, it opened a spot for Suarez. And Schebler in the outfield was sorely needed as Reds OF farmhands were Winker and Duvall. It was just that it was so underwhelming for a favorite when you look back at the subsequent deals and say what could have been....

    Dec 2015 Chapman for Jagielo, Davis, Renda and Cotham. Cotham and Renda are gone, Jag might as well be. Essentially Chaoman for Rookie Davis? Biggest blunder of the whole rebuild/re-tool debacle. F-. Consider this - for Cueto and Chapman, 2 of baseballs best arms, the Reds got injured Finnegan and very mediocre Davis, 3 guys who are already gone, 1 yippy Reed and soon to be gone Jagielo. That's utterly pathetic. 1 trade that was supposed to be good, and 1 that never was any good and the return from both, when combined, wrecked the Reds immediate future no matter what else they did.

    Jan 2016 Reds sign IFA Afredo Rodriguez. We all gulp signing Ozzie Smith's's clone for 7 million bucks plus penalties - the Ozzie before he could hit

    April 2016 claimed Straily off waivers....which turned into Luis Castillo plus a solid season from Straily in the interim

    Jun 2016 Reds draft Nick Senzel, Taylor Trammell, Scott Moss, Ryan Hendrix et al

    Aug 2016 Bruce for Herrerra and Wotell. Oh Wo-the-hell. Still too soon to call but so far returns aren't encouraging. Will Herrera's shoulder ever heal? At least all the Mets got for Bruce was Ryan Ryder, basically the equivalent of Wotell. I was getting tired of ripping out my hair (literally the one hair I have left) and yelling "Why couldn't the Reds have gotten that return?" Grade D. Herrerra's gotta play to change that.

    Aug 2016 Cozart for Gohara......sorry, I was too understaffed to delete this deal until it was too late.....

    Oct 2016 Reds finish 68-94 5th place

    Jan 2017 Straily to the Marlins for Castillo, Brice and White. Wh-aaa-aat? Boy do I love those Marlins. Average starter. Trade for future potential. If the Reds could afford to keep the Cuetos and Chapmans of the world these average guy for high ceiling prospects trades would make them the best club in baseball....

    Feb 2017 BP to the Braves for 2 relievers never to be heard from again. The Reds needed a place for Herrerra to be injured. And for Scooter to hit 4 homers, and Peraza to make us appreciate Dat Dude in retrospect....grade B because sometimes subtraction is addition.

    Jun 2017 Reds draft Hunter Greene and a few other guys as well....but it's all about Greene

    Jun 2017 signed IFA Jose Israel Garcia....got him before they got restricted

    Jul 2017 Cingrani to Dodgers for Clementina and Van Slyke. VS is already gone but Clementina may make this a good deal - still too early to call but heck, its not like Tony would have brought anything better AND remember....average for potential. Maybe Clementina can continue the trend

    Oct 2017 Reds finish 68-94 5th place Oh and btw Reds finish under pythag in each season Price is mgr if you follow that at all....but....lets extend him

    Enough to hire a shrink. Plenty of good moves in there but some major misfires have crippled the rebuild. Just my 2 cents. And I'm an optimist.
    Last edited by RedlegJake; 11-02-2017 at 07:39 PM.
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  10. #21
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Secret of their success: get a SS

    Quote Originally Posted by InsaneinthBrame View Post
    That is not true the pitching gave up 169 more runs while the hitting was 143 runs away from the Astros edit: and that does not account for DH
    Reds ERA+ in 2017: 85
    Astros ERA+ in 2017: 96

    Difference: 11

    Reds OPS+ in 2017: 98
    Astros OPS+ in 2017: 127

    Difference: 29

    The Reds pitching staff was much closer to the Astros than the Reds offense was to the Astros. It's not even remotely close.

  11. #22
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    Re: Secret of their success: get a SS

    They won in 2010 and 2012 with average SS. This team needs pitching way more than worrying about the next Barry Larkin.

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  13. #23
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Secret of their success: get a SS

    Quote Originally Posted by Tony Cloninger View Post
    They won in 2010 and 2012 with average SS. This team needs pitching way more than worrying about the next Barry Larkin.
    This team has internal hope for pitching. They've literally got Jose Peraza, Zach Vincej, Calten Daal, Alfredo Rodriguez, Blake Trahan and Hector Vargas as their full-season shortstops right now.

    Not one of those guys was able to OPS .700 this season. Daal missed the entire year with a shoulder injury. Rodriguez, Trahan and Vargas all failed to OPS .600 this year.

    They don't need the next Barry Larkin, but man, they need the next guy capable of hitting his way out of a wet paper bag.

  14. #24
    Someday Never Comes mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Secret of their success: get a SS

    Quote Originally Posted by Tony Cloninger View Post
    They won in 2010 and 2012 with average SS. This team needs pitching way more than worrying about the next Barry Larkin.
    I think they need pitching too. A starter better than the guys listed and a late inning reliever at least. That doesn't mean acquiring somebody better than Peraza should be off the table. Peraza reminds me of Steve Jeltz when he played in Philly. Peraza is probably a better baserunner but would be a bottom tier defender and bottom tier offensive guy as SS go IMO. When I think of that, Jeltz always comes to mind.

    I don't hate Peraza the way I hated having Willy Taveras on the team, I think he can be a decent utility/bench player. I just hate the way the Reds pursued him. Tried to deal Chapman for him, and when that fell through, dealt Frazier to get him. Seems like they already made up their mind he's their guy. I just wonder how many years before they move off of him.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

  15. #25
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    Re: Secret of their success: get a SS

    I'm with KC61 on this: Reds' pitching is systemically atrocious. Like at the genetic level.

    They were able to essentially buy themselves a brief reprieve from it in the Jocketty years, but it's back with a vengeance.

    Historically, the Reds have been able to figure out the SS position.

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  17. #26
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    Re: Secret of their success: get a SS

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    This team has internal hope for pitching. They've literally got Jose Peraza, Zach Vincej, Calten Daal, Alfredo Rodriguez, Blake Trahan and Hector Vargas as their full-season shortstops right now.

    Not one of those guys was able to OPS .700 this season. Daal missed the entire year with a shoulder injury. Rodriguez, Trahan and Vargas all failed to OPS .600 this year.

    They don't need the next Barry Larkin, but man, they need the next guy capable of hitting his way out of a wet paper bag.
    This team has an almost absurd inability to develop starting pitching. So I don't put much stock in the internal options at pitching.

    My guess is the Reds could trade for an average SS this offseason and never miss a beat.

  18. #27
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    Re: Secret of their success: get a SS

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Reds ERA+ in 2017: 85
    Astros ERA+ in 2017: 96

    Difference: 11

    Reds OPS+ in 2017: 98
    Astros OPS+ in 2017: 127

    Difference: 29

    The Reds pitching staff was much closer to the Astros than the Reds offense was to the Astros. It's not even remotely close.
    The good news is the Reds can contend with a non-Astros offense. The bad news is they have probably the worst pitching in MLB.

  19. #28
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    Re: Secret of their success: get a SS

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    This team has internal hope for pitching. They've literally got Jose Peraza, Zach Vincej, Calten Daal, Alfredo Rodriguez, Blake Trahan and Hector Vargas as their full-season shortstops right now.

    Not one of those guys was able to OPS .700 this season. Daal missed the entire year with a shoulder injury. Rodriguez, Trahan and Vargas all failed to OPS .600 this year.

    They don't need the next Barry Larkin, but man, they need the next guy capable of hitting his way out of a wet paper bag.
    I get they need something better than a wet paper bag hitting SS but if they can get 2012-14 type pitching than Juan Castro could man SS. So as long as he bats 8th only but that might be too much for Price to understand. If it's 2010-11 pitching than sure they need better. But they have other positions covering much of the offense.

  20. #29
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    Re: Secret of their success: get a SS

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I think they need pitching too. A starter better than the guys listed and a late inning reliever at least. That doesn't mean acquiring somebody better than Peraza should be off the table. Peraza reminds me of Steve Jeltz when he played in Philly. Peraza is probably a better baserunner but would be a bottom tier defender and bottom tier offensive guy as SS go IMO. When I think of that, Jeltz always comes to mind.

    I don't hate Peraza the way I hated having Willy Taveras on the team, I think he can be a decent utility/bench player. I just hate the way the Reds pursued him. Tried to deal Chapman for him, and when that fell through, dealt Frazier to get him. Seems like they already made up their mind he's their guy. I just wonder how many years before they move off of him.
    If he is batting 7th or 8th it can work. I just don't trust this manager to do that. I'm hoping it's Suarez or Winker hitting 2nd if Winker takes most of the RF playing time. Yeah the defense will not be good I understand. This team may have to make due with SS and CF being barely average hitting wise.

  21. #30
    Member Kinsm's Avatar
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    Re: Secret of their success: get a SS

    The Reds need pitching, end of story.

    Even with a HOF'er SS they'd still suck.


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