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Thread: Secret of their success: get a SS

  1. #31
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Secret of their success: get a SS

    Quote Originally Posted by Kinsm View Post
    The Reds need pitching, end of story.

    Even with a HOF'er SS they'd still suck.
    They have a whole lot of needs. Shortstop is one of the biggest ones.

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  3. #32
    Member kpresidente's Avatar
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    Secret of their success: get a SS

    How do these kinds of conversations happen on RedsZone? How is it not blindingly obvious that you can’t compare “pitching” and “shortstop”? Pitching is like 12 guys, a shortstop is one. It’s a categorically different thing. You can compare ONE pitcher to a shortstop, but even Clayton Kershaw wouldn’t have kept the Reds from having the worst ERA in baseball last year. I don’t even care where somebody stands on that (a pitcher vs a shortstop) but can we at least not talk in these these inane, illogical frames?

  4. #33
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Secret of their success: get a SS

    Quote Originally Posted by kpresidente View Post
    How do these kinds of conversations happen on RedsZone? How is it not blindingly obvious that you can’t compare “pitching” and “shortstop”? Pitching is like 12 guys, a shortstop is one. It’s a categorically different thing. You can compare ONE pitcher to a shortstop, but even Clayton Kershaw wouldn’t have kept the Reds from having the worst ERA in baseball last year. I don’t even care where somebody stands on that (a pitcher vs a shortstop) but can we at least not talk in these these inane, illogical frames?
    But the Reds need pitching.

    Sorry, couldn't resist.
    Wait until the year after next year.

  5. #34
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Secret of their success: get a SS

    Quote Originally Posted by kpresidente View Post
    How do these kinds of conversations happen on RedsZone? How is it not blindingly obvious that you can’t compare “pitching” and “shortstop”? Pitching is like 12 guys, a shortstop is one. It’s a categorically different thing. You can compare ONE pitcher to a shortstop, but even Clayton Kershaw wouldn’t have kept the Reds from having the worst ERA in baseball last year. I don’t even care where somebody stands on that (a pitcher vs a shortstop) but can we at least not talk in these these inane, illogical frames?
    The Reds didn't have the worst ERA in baseball last year, without Kershaw.

  6. #35
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    Re: Secret of their success: get a SS

    Quote Originally Posted by kpresidente View Post
    How do these kinds of conversations happen on RedsZone? How is it not blindingly obvious that you can’t compare “pitching” and “shortstop”? Pitching is like 12 guys, a shortstop is one. It’s a categorically different thing. You can compare ONE pitcher to a shortstop, but even Clayton Kershaw wouldn’t have kept the Reds from having the worst ERA in baseball last year. I don’t even care where somebody stands on that (a pitcher vs a shortstop) but can we at least not talk in these these inane, illogical frames?
    When a team has a fixed budget and a narrow timeframe, what gets elevated as a priority by definition cuts into the pursuing of the other thing.

    No Reds' fan on this board is opposed to getting the next Correa. But acting like anything short of a WWII rationing or Space Race level of commitment to improving this team's pitching is gonna make a dent in this organization's ability to be relevant over the next 5 years is just weird.

  7. #36
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    Re: Secret of their success: get a SS

    The fact that this organization still hasn't executed a clean sweep of their minors leadership should tell you the fundamental blindness they have to the extent of their pitching problems. They don't know that they don't know they're doing it wrong. That's a deep hole.

  8. #37
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Secret of their success: get a SS

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    The fact that this organization still hasn't executed a clean sweep of their minors leadership should tell you the fundamental blindness they have to the extent of their pitching problems. They don't know that they don't know they're doing it wrong. That's a deep hole.
    They changed their minor league pitching coordinator two years ago.

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  10. #38
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    Re: Secret of their success: get a SS

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Reds ERA+ in 2017: 85
    Astros ERA+ in 2017: 96

    Difference: 11

    Reds OPS+ in 2017: 98
    Astros OPS+ in 2017: 127

    Difference: 29

    The Reds pitching staff was much closer to the Astros than the Reds offense was to the Astros. It's not even remotely close.
    That is not an apples to apples example comparison

    Actually Runs is the ultimate in determining differences because that is the only stat that actually matters especially with production.

  11. #39
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Secret of their success: get a SS

    Quote Originally Posted by InsaneinthBrame View Post
    That is not an apples to apples example comparison

    Actually Runs is the ultimate in determining differences because that is the only stat that actually matters especially with production.
    Ballparks matter. The Astros played in what was the most pitcher friendly ballpark in baseball in 2017. Which, I would have lost a whole lot of money on if I had to bet on picking which ballpark that was. They also play in other pitcher friendly ballparks in the west. Comparing raw runs between teams hides a whole lot of information.

    The Reds sucked. But when compared to the Astros - their pitching staffs were far closer to each other than their offenses were.

  12. #40
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    Re: Secret of their success: get a SS

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    They have one young guy, and three years is an aggressive timetable for him. On top of that, a stopgap SS might keep the team from getting over the top during that window. On top of that, he's probably leaving.

    The Reds are a rebuilding team. Time to look for what's next.
    I was not saying that are expected to compete. Because I expect another 90 loss team. I was just saying they could just spend money on Cozart if they were. Right now it does not matter who is SS until they fix the pitching.
    Because we will not compete in 2018 I would like to see what Peraza can do. He is a better hitter than he showed last year (he is only 23 and can improve with the bat). He has potential to be a a leadoff hitter 290 BA 350 OBP
    Getting a SS of the future would not be a bad idea. The young SS I would like to get is Wade of the Yankees. But that organization has so much talent I do not think we have anything that they would want.

  13. #41
    Member kpresidente's Avatar
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    Re: Secret of their success: get a SS

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    When a team has a fixed budget and a narrow timeframe, what gets elevated as a priority by definition cuts into the pursuing of the other thing.

    No Reds' fan on this board is opposed to getting the next Correa. But acting like anything short of a WWII rationing or Space Race level of commitment to improving this team's pitching is gonna make a dent in this organization's ability to be relevant over the next 5 years is just weird.
    Agreed, but a run scored is the same as a run prevented. You could get a shortstop en lieu of a pitcher and then you need that much less pitching. Or you could let Peraza be the SS and need that much more pitching.

  14. #42
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    Re: Secret of their success: get a SS

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Ballparks matter. The Astros played in what was the most pitcher friendly ballpark in baseball in 2017. Which, I would have lost a whole lot of money on if I had to bet on picking which ballpark that was. They also play in other pitcher friendly ballparks in the west. Comparing raw runs between teams hides a whole lot of information.

    The Reds sucked. But when compared to the Astros - their pitching staffs were far closer to each other than their offenses were.
    And you are totally discounting the DH factor which is 20.26 runs this last year so you would have to decrease the Astros runs scored and runs allowed to make allowance for the DH

    As far as park factors the Astros on the road played a lot of games in the #2 Park Texas and #6 Oakland.

  15. #43
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Secret of their success: get a SS

    Quote Originally Posted by InsaneinthBrame View Post
    And you are totally discounting the DH factor which is 20.26 runs this last year so you would have to decrease the Astros runs scored and runs allowed to make allowance for the DH

    As far as park factors the Astros on the road played a lot of games in the #2 Park Texas and #6 Oakland.
    OPS/ERA+ builds in the park factors. It's why I used that metric. It works around all of that stuff.

  16. #44
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: Secret of their success: get a SS

    Not sure why we are comparing the offense to an AL team.

    The top National League team, using OPS+ was Miami with a 104. Reds were 5th with a 98

  17. #45
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Secret of their success: get a SS

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    Not sure why we are comparing the offense to an AL team.

    The top National League team, using OPS+ was Miami with a 104. Reds were 5th with a 98
    Because they just won the World Series. And that's where you want to get. So it seems like a good place to start in "where does this team need to be", no? To get to where they are talent wise, you should probably try to compare the two. They aren't the only way to get there. Pick any of the 95+ win teams. The Astros are just one of them. And if the Reds want to be anything like them, they've got a lot more to fix with their offense than they do with their pitching. Yet, it's the pitching that everyone seems to think is what needs more fixing, when, well, if you want to replicate the Astros, the Reds pitching is far closer to that model than the Reds offense is.


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