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Thread: Secret of their success: get a SS

  1. #46
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: Secret of their success: get a SS

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Because they just won the World Series. And that's where you want to get. So it seems like a good place to start in "where does this team need to be", no? To get to where they are talent wise, you should probably try to compare the two. They aren't the only way to get there. Pick any of the 95+ win teams. The Astros are just one of them. And if the Reds want to be anything like them, they've got a lot more to fix with their offense than they do with their pitching. Yet, it's the pitching that everyone seems to think is what needs more fixing, when, well, if you want to replicate the Astros, the Reds pitching is far closer to that model than the Reds offense is.
    The Reds need to get through the NL, so comparing them to AL teams doesn't seem like the way to go.

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  3. #47
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Secret of their success: get a SS

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    The Reds need to get through the NL, so comparing them to AL teams doesn't seem like the way to go.
    Comparing them to the best teams in baseball is absolutely the way to go.

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  5. #48
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    Re: Secret of their success: get a SS

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Comparing them to the best teams in baseball is absolutely the way to go.
    then you should do it on a position by position basis. With the DH involved, it isn't an apples to apples.

  6. #49
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Secret of their success: get a SS

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    then you should do it on a position by position basis. With the DH involved, it isn't an apples to apples.
    Nothing is apples to apples. They all play different teams on different days in different stadiums with different weather conditions.

  7. #50
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    Re: Secret of their success: get a SS

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Nothing is apples to apples. They all play different teams on different days in different stadiums with different weather conditions.
    I know we discussed this before, but the AL OPS+ average is 100. The NL is 94.

    Reds were a top five NL offence in 2017 based on OPS+.

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    Re: Secret of their success: get a SS

    I don't know about SS. But, I'll let you all in a little secret. The secret of my success is I'm living 25 hours a day. 25 hours a day.

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  10. #52
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Secret of their success: get a SS

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    I know we discussed this before, but the AL OPS+ average is 100. The NL is 94.

    Reds were a top five NL offence in 2017 based on OPS+.
    Even adjusting for that, the Reds pitching staff was still far closer to the Astros than their offense was.

  11. #53
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    Re: Secret of their success: get a SS

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Even adjusting for that, the Reds pitching staff was still far closer to the Astros than their offense was.
    Comparing the NL teams that won 90+ games OPS+/ERA+

    Wash 100/115
    Chi 100/111
    LAD 103/124
    Arz 93/131
    Cin 98/85

  12. #54
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    Re: Secret of their success: get a SS

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Because they just won the World Series. And that's where you want to get. So it seems like a good place to start in "where does this team need to be", no? To get to where they are talent wise, you should probably try to compare the two. They aren't the only way to get there. Pick any of the 95+ win teams. The Astros are just one of them. And if the Reds want to be anything like them, they've got a lot more to fix with their offense than they do with their pitching. Yet, it's the pitching that everyone seems to think is what needs more fixing, when, well, if you want to replicate the Astros, the Reds pitching is far closer to that model than the Reds offense is.
    The Reds have a pitching model? Is it written, I'd love to see it. Maybe it's the statue of liberty inscription, give me your tired, your poor. Or maybe it's "the unready, the unhealthy, and the inning eaters."

    Your argument here assumes that the current Reds team reflects some design. IMO it does not, it's a provisional team, and the Reds' "model" will emerge over time. This group has been pasted together to keep the franchise going while they draft and sign young players.

    For now, very simply, the team can't function because of its pitching. If they can boost the pitching, they can be decent - with or without a major shortstop addition. Long term, we don't know what we have and we can't compare it to anyone else.

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  14. #55
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Secret of their success: get a SS

    The Reds need help in a lot of places.

    My point all along has been simply this: They need more than pitching to compete with the big boys, so maybe we should stop focusing solely on "must get more pitching". They must get better in areas other than pitching, too.

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    Re: Secret of their success: get a SS

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    The Reds need help in a lot of places.

    My point all along has been simply this: They need more than pitching to compete with the big boys, so maybe we should stop focusing solely on "must get more pitching". They must get better in areas other than pitching, too.
    Yes, the organization is a disaster. We've known that a while. But again, you have to have priorities. If they flip Senzel for a prospect at SS who could turn into the next Correa in 2022-2023 (and that's what it would take--that degree of risk), then are they really making themselves better in the near and middle term? I'd argue no.

    Draft a can't miss SS and pay the hefty sum to sign him and be done with it.

  17. #57
    .377 in 1905 CySeymour's Avatar
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    Re: Secret of their success: get a SS

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Draft a can't miss SS and pay the hefty sum to sign him and be done with it.
    And if there isn't that player available for them to draft?
    ...the 2-2 to Woodsen and here it comes...and it is swung on and missed! And Tom Browning has pitched a perfect game! Twenty-seven outs in a row, and he is being mobbed by his teammates, just to the thirdbase side of the mound.

  18. #58
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Secret of their success: get a SS

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Yes, the organization is a disaster. We've known that a while. But again, you have to have priorities. If they flip Senzel for a prospect at SS who could turn into the next Correa in 2022-2023 (and that's what it would take--that degree of risk), then are they really making themselves better in the near and middle term? I'd argue no.

    Draft a can't miss SS and pay the hefty sum to sign him and be done with it.
    There's no such thing as a can't miss draft pick. Doesn't exist. So that plan doesn't exactly work. But even if it did, you can't know when you have the chance to draft that guy. If there's a can't miss shortstop, and you aren't drafting 1st or 2nd in the year he does show up, you aren't getting him.

    The Reds have options to turn their pitching around. Maybe it doesn't happen, but the hope is there with arms like Mahle, Stephenson, Romano, Garrett, Finnegan, DeSclafani, Gutierrez, Santillan - yeah, there's some hope involved there. But at least there's hope and a plethora of options. At shortstop, there's literally Jose Peraza as the most upside guy at shortstop of anyone that's played in full-season baseball for the organization. If you're looking at priorities, that seems like a far bigger one to me.

  19. #59
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    Re: Secret of their success: get a SS

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    At shortstop, there's literally Jose Peraza as the most upside guy at shortstop of anyone that's played in full-season baseball for the organization. If you're looking at priorities, that seems like a far bigger one to me.
    Pitching in the priority. It's half the team. You can name all the prospects, but it's very tough to have the pitching depth to succeed when you don't spend on proven guys.

    In all sports, I believe the bedrock is the defensive side. You can't build properly, or have the right culture, if your opponents are constantly scoring. It gives them momentum to win, while you are chasing all the time.

    Shortstop is one position, they will fill it. Pitching is the backbone of the team requiring the most attention.
    Last edited by Kc61; 11-03-2017 at 11:38 AM.

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  21. #60
    Member Z-Fly's Avatar
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    Re: Secret of their success: get a SS

    For the ERA+ number, we should probably factor the DH in Offense and Defense, which would put the Reds further from the Astros pitching than it currently looks.
    WHEN DOES IT STOP!?!?


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