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Thread: Prospect OBP Queries

  1. #16
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    Re: Prospect OBP Queries

    Quote Originally Posted by RED VAN HOT View Post
    Let's look at Peraza a little more. If I split the season in half by month, he had the same BABIP in each half. In the first half he hit .253 with .280 OBP and .332 SLG. In the second half he hit .267 with .322 OBP and .312 SLG. His BB rate went from 1.6% to 7%, I suggest that he changed his approach and sacrificed pop for better plate control. This suggests to me that OBP can be increased by more ways than increasing the BA. In fact, from Aug 1 until the end of the year his numbers were even better, .275 BA and .336 OBP.
    He had a well documented change in approach based on working with the hitting coach. He was supposedly seeing pitches better as a result and ended up swinging less often at fringe pitches and what not. I don't think Peraza has any power to sacrifice, I think he was actually just swinging less which led to more walks. Unfortunately he seemed to regress to his hold ways in Sept/Oct.

    https://www.cincinnati.com/story/spo...aza/554819001/
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.

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  3. #17
    Member kpresidente's Avatar
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    Re: Prospect OBP Queries

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Guys that have the ability to "spoil" pitches are also the ones who usually just hit the first strike that they do get. Which, of course, makes it tough to draw a walk, if pitchers aren't actually careful against you (re: slap hitter).
    Not always, though. Hereís a guy with no power who made a career out of working deep in counts and drawing walks...

    https://www.baseball-reference.com/p...arroja01.shtml

    My thing is it seems like something that can be taught, unlike having a good eye, because itís just a matter of approach. Donít swing unless itís your pitch, not that hard.

  4. #18
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    Re: Prospect OBP Queries

    Quote Originally Posted by kpresidente View Post
    Not always, though. Here’s a guy with no power who made a career out of working deep in counts and drawing walks...

    https://www.baseball-reference.com/p...arroja01.shtml

    My thing is it seems like something that can be taught, unlike having a good eye, because it’s just a matter of approach. Don’t swing unless it’s your pitch, not that hard.
    But it is hard, hitting a baseball is really hard, determining in a fraction of a second whether you should swing or not is hard. that's why baseball is loaded with uber talented guys that still swing at a ton of pitches they shouldn't. That is why a guy like Votto is the best of the best and not everyone is like him.
    Last edited by Griffey012; 11-13-2017 at 02:25 PM.
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.

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  6. #19
    Overton Window Breaker WrongVerb's Avatar
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    Re: Prospect OBP Queries

    Quote Originally Posted by kpresidente View Post
    Not always, though. Here’s a guy with no power who made a career out of working deep in counts and drawing walks...

    https://www.baseball-reference.com/p...arroja01.shtml

    My thing is it seems like something that can be taught, unlike having a good eye, because it’s just a matter of approach. Don’t swing unless it’s your pitch, not that hard.
    Here's another guy without a ton of power but could take a walk and work the count: https://www.baseball-reference.com/p...rosepe01.shtml
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there always has been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that ďmy ignorance is just as good as your knowledge." -- Isaac Asimov

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    Member marcshoe's Avatar
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    Re: Prospect OBP Queries

    Quote Originally Posted by WrongVerb View Post
    Here's another guy without a ton of power but could take a walk and work the count: https://www.baseball-reference.com/p...rosepe01.shtml
    Too much baggage. Not worth it.
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  9. #21
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Prospect OBP Queries

    Quote Originally Posted by kpresidente View Post
    Not always, though. Hereís a guy with no power who made a career out of working deep in counts and drawing walks...

    https://www.baseball-reference.com/p...arroja01.shtml

    My thing is it seems like something that can be taught, unlike having a good eye, because itís just a matter of approach. Donít swing unless itís your pitch, not that hard.
    Made a career out of it, but he was a well below-average hitter for the entirety of it.

    If an 85 OPS+ hitter is the example of a success, then the plan is terrible.

  10. #22
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Prospect OBP Queries

    As for Pete..... he slugged .430+ 10 times in his career for a full season. He wasn't a power hitter, but he wasn't a no-power guy either. Also, please don't make me defend Pete Rose ever again. Thanks in advance.

  11. #23
    Member Z-Fly's Avatar
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    Re: Prospect OBP Queries

    But did you know Pete used to run to 1st Base on a walk!?!? That's why they called him Charlie Hustle.
    WHEN DOES IT STOP!?!?

  12. #24
    Overton Window Breaker WrongVerb's Avatar
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    Re: Prospect OBP Queries

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    As for Pete..... he slugged .430+ 10 times in his career for a full season. He wasn't a power hitter, but he wasn't a no-power guy either. Also, please don't make me defend Pete Rose ever again. Thanks in advance.
    Did I make you finally have to take a shower or what?
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there always has been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that ďmy ignorance is just as good as your knowledge." -- Isaac Asimov

  13. #25
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Prospect OBP Queries

    Quote Originally Posted by WrongVerb View Post
    Did I make you finally have to take a shower or what?
    Is it already the third Monday of the month?!

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  15. #26
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    Re: Prospect OBP Queries

    While we are on this topic, I have a slugging percentage question. It seems to me that base runners should get credit for stolen bases in the slugging percentage. A stolen base adds to total bases and a caught stealing subtracts. Is there something like an SLG+ that adds the SB-CS differential to total bases? It would have little effect for most players, but for top base runners like Hamilton it would provide a fuller picture of value.

  16. #27
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Prospect OBP Queries

    Quote Originally Posted by RED VAN HOT View Post
    While we are on this topic, I have a slugging percentage question. It seems to me that base runners should get credit for stolen bases in the slugging percentage. A stolen base adds to total bases and a caught stealing subtracts. Is there something like an SLG+ that adds the SB-CS differential to total bases? It would have little effect for most players, but for top base runners like Hamilton it would provide a fuller picture of value.
    They shouldn't get credit in SLG because their steals don't move other runners.

    If you want something to include baserunning value, and it's important to note that includes more than just steals, just go to fangraphs and look at their offensive value totals.

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  18. #28
    Overton Window Breaker WrongVerb's Avatar
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    Re: Prospect OBP Queries

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    They shouldn't get credit in SLG because their steals don't move other runners.

    If you want something to include baserunning value, and it's important to note that includes more than just steals, just go to fangraphs and look at their offensive value totals.
    Doesn't wRC+ include stolen bases?
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there always has been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that ďmy ignorance is just as good as your knowledge." -- Isaac Asimov

  19. #29
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    Re: Prospect OBP Queries

    Quote Originally Posted by WrongVerb View Post
    Doesn't wRC+ include stolen bases?
    Stolen bases definitely factor into WAR as part of base running runs, but I have not yet found a link to wRC+. It doesn't mean it isn't there, only that I have not found it.

  20. #30
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: Prospect OBP Queries

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    They shouldn't get credit in SLG because their steals don't move other runners.
    Hits occasionally don't either.

    An infield single with a runner who has to hold, for example. Or a soft liner to CF that might/ might not fall with a runner on third.

    And stolen bases occasionally do sometimes move other runners.

    The back part of a double steal, for example. Or a guy streaking for home on a first-and-third situation. (Though that's more a college/ high school thing.)

    I see your point, but suspect the stolen base (or threat thereof) is often an underrated weapon here on RedsZone. And perhaps across all of sabermetrics.
    Last edited by Bourgeois Zee; 11-14-2017 at 03:42 PM.


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