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Thread: Expectations for Robert Stephenson?

  1. #211
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    Re: Expectations for Robert Stephenson?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Stephenson gave up four walks in six innings last night, but overall had a positive outing IMO. No idea what the Reds are thinking, but I'm hoping for some fairly consistent quality from start to start over an extended period. I've been utilizing game score (I know it's flawed) as a measurement with my own arbitrary scale of 65 or better being better than the competition. I'd like to see Stephenson average that over an 8 game stretch (not sure why 8, as opposed to 6 or 10, but I'm sticking with it) as indication he's ready for another shot in the big leagues. Last night's game was an acceptable 66, In his first five games, Stephenson's scores were 38, 77, 54, 47 and 19 for an average of 47. Not very good. His last 5 starts have scores of 72, 67, 52, 71 and 66 for an average of 65.6. Seems to be getting close to another look for me. If he can keep from falling off a cliff the next couple of weeks, it's probably time for another shot. No idea what to expect, but I like that Stephenson may actually be earning a call-up to the Reds rotation for the first time instead of just being handed one. I'm actually gaining a little optimism here. If he can fulfill some of his potential and become a solid middle of the rotation option it will be huge development for the team's rebuild.

    The Reds really need to send Romano down. I think it's reaching the point where more big league starts will do more harm than good. He really needs to go down and improve his change-up and gain enough trust in it to use it a lot more than he does now. Like Cingrani before him, there is stuff to like about Romano but he just doesn't have the quality secondary stuff to be a successful big league starter and he needs the opportunity to go down and work on it that Cingrani never got. Still, I don't want to see that situation result in rushing Stephenson back to the rotation. I'd guess my arbitrary 8 start decent or better is not the right measurement of when, but I'm pretty sure that this little 5 start string of starts isn't enough. The Reds need a stopgap to push aside when somebody actually emerges, but Romano needs to go down ASAP IMO. I've stated earlier that I'd give Jackson Stephens the Tim Adelman role of being that guy, but I'm hoping Stephenson can emerge by mid-June. Crossing my fingers.
    I agree with your basic point about Stephenson but I don't agree with your timetable. It's arbitrary. He should come up when he's reasonably ready in the eyes of the coaches and there's an opening. There are opportunities upcoming.

    I would start Disco for the Reds next Tuesday instead of Romano. I would start Stephenson on Saturday June 9 when a fifth starter is next needed. In each case barring a setback and as long as the coaches think it's reasonable.

    This not an exact science nor is an exact, specific number of AAA starts required. In life we all must seize opportunities. Over the next week or so I see opportunities on the schedule and I'd move the pitchers in if the coaches are comfortable with that.
    Last edited by Kc61; 06-01-2018 at 03:26 PM.

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  3. #212
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Expectations for Robert Stephenson?

    Stephenson has been really solid over his last 5 starts, with a 2.40 ERA, 11.1 SO/9 and 3.3 BB/9. But that's 5 starts. The 5 starts before that included an ERA north of a 5 and a walk rate pushing 8.

    It's 5 good starts, but it's 5 starts. Ultimately, it's a decision that should be driven by scouting and assessment that says he's actually changed in sustainable ways.

    But if we're talking about his statistical track record as the basis for a decision, I'm looking for at least another month of a walk rate under 3.5 before I'm challenging him with major league opportunity again.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  5. #213
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    Re: Expectations for Robert Stephenson?

    Romano and Mahle now listed on the official site for Tuesday and Wednesday. That means that Disco probably waits until next Saturday, June 9 and probably takes one more rehab start. Of course, it’s subject to change as things develop.

    Also means Romano may be continuing in rotation with Stephenson at AAA.

    If this holds, it’s a reprieve for Romano who’s currently -0.2 in fWAR.
    Last edited by Kc61; 06-02-2018 at 09:06 AM.

  6. #214
    Member Rolando's Avatar
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    Re: Expectations for Robert Stephenson?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Romano and Mahle now listed on the official site for Tuesday and Wednesday. That means that Disco probably waits until next Saturday, June 9 and probably takes one more rehab start. Of course, it’s subject to change as things develop.

    Also means Romano may be continuing in rotation with Stephenson at AAA.

    If this holds, it’s a reprieve for Romano who’s currently -0.2 in fWAR.
    My guess is disco starts Monday in Pensacola and then lije,you said he will,start next Saturday


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